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Everywhere you look or listen, everything is bleak after the Thursday -
Friday selloff. My gut feeling is that we go down but when I go on feelings
I usually get burned. I stick with AIQ's market timing module which is
still on a BUY. Indicators that I watch (MACD, Dir Movement, VaPct, and
Trendscore) are negative. However, the OBV, MoneyFlow and
Accumulation-Distribution indicators have not broken down. I know Telescan
users got a 4-96 sell signal but using Dial Data (theoretical highs and
theoretical lows) there has not been a sell signal and we remain on a buy
signal.
I listen to CNBC and I know those guys are just hoping for a crash on Monday
so they can compare it to 1987 when there were 2 nasty days before the
weekend and then Black Monday. Some how I don't think it will be that clean
of a repeat performance EXACTLY to the day 10 years ago. No one on CNBC has
suggested the possiblity that we could Start Down Hard Monday and end UP for
the day. Who would they talk to then?
AIQ's WAL number is bearish at 7-93 BUT the US number is very high 90-10 and
has room to expand even more to the upside if the market goes down more in
the next few days. These two numbers are equally as important as the AIQ
Market ER rating. Point & Figure chart does not show a negative breakdown
so far even though there was a outside reversal day Thursday (may have been
Wed as I don't have my chart in front of me) that is usually bearish.
Conclusion: Still on AIQ buy signal from my data, Good support with high US
number, tooooo much bearish talk of a repeat performance Monday 10 years ago
and I stick with AIQ. Also, too many people have been conditioned since 87
to buy the dips. Market opens down and finishes UP. This is not the top,
just a 7-8% correction and then new highs on DOW, SPX and Nasdaq before the
end of the year. This is what I conclude from looking at AIQ(although
murkpy picture). This opinion will change if we get a Sell Signal.
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