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From: owner-realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx on behalf of Rick Ratchford
Sent: Thursday, October 09, 1997 3:41 PM
To: RealTraders Discussion Group
Subject: gen:Anyone Paying Attention?
I'm just curious if anyone is paying any attention to these futures market
forecasts. Back when Hogs were up around the 6400-6500 area a week or so
ago, I posted here that we would see it go down to 6182 for this week.
Since I have only heard from one person who asked me, 'didn't you forecast
that hogs would go down to 6185 back when it was up around 6500-6600?', I've
been wondering if the rest of the world missed that one.
I believe I said 6182 in that post, but I'm sure no one would hold it
against me that I'm 3 points off, for today's low in hogs stopped at 6185
and closed above 6200 by a couple ticks or so.
I sure hope that some of you have been paying attention if you are commodity
traders and are looking for a possible good trade. I've been riding hogs
down all last week and part of this week since the last Fdate. I'm expecting
the price of hogs to go up some from here.
Also, there is the Feeder Cattle market of the week. Anyone making any money
on this? Our Fdate bottom was only breached by 2 ticks and has run up over
100 points! With these free Fdate trades, I hope you're making some money on
them and not just letting it go into one ear and out the other. You've been
getting these for free.
Same with Corn. There was the post about the Corn Explosion when it broke
out by 3 cents on the upside after making the FDate bottom last week. It has
shot to the moon. Don't suggest going long where it is right now, of course,
but sure hope you are taking advantage there too.
Now, back to hogs. You are being given a reprieve. If you have been falling
asleep (hog traders only) to the forecasts posted here, even if you don't
believe they would happen you should at least watch them, wake up!!! It is
still at the bottom here and may provide you with an opportunity to go long.
I'm sorry to rag here, but then maybe nobody is noticing that either. <g>
cheers!
:)
rick
*****
FutureSoft Publishing - Precision Trading
>>>>> http://FSoftPublishing.com <<<<<
*****
Although I have little faith in charts or systems, your message helped me
decide to take the plunge on hogs and cattle. I bought 2 Jul 98 hogs and 2
June 98 cattle at 63.9 and 69.1.
I have been trading commodities for 2 years. Always made money on corn, wheat
and soybeans, but lost most of it on precious metals. Just made $1,400 in 3
days on 1 Dec 98 corn and 2 May 98 soymeal. Would have made anothe $5,000 if
I had stayed in, but was influenced by a Newsletter recommending shorting Soy
just before prices shot up.
My philosophy is, commodities are highly speculative, but since I believe that
severe inflation is coming, there is a slight edge to prices going higher than
anticipated. Possibility of El Nino effect on crops also gives a slight edge.
I have also bought 2 May 98 Orange Juice.
Len Cordell
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