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RTrs,
Oct. U.S.News article on EL Nino is indubitably old news by now.
Though I ask of the veteran seasoned Futures Traders here,so that I may
keep an objective outlook, and not get caught to long in the markets as
I have in the past. (I have to check my tendencies to get excited by
global news that should have a long range affect).
Do you remember the season of 82-83, and how did it affect grains,
meats, cocoa, or other markets.
For those who haven't read the article, and according to Shannon
Brownlee, and Laura Tangley of U.S.News Australias drought has cattle
ranchers slaughtering herds for lack of water or fodder.
Indonesia and Malaysias forest fires are or were out of control.
S. Africa will experience drought along with Indonesia,New Guinea, etc.
While Ecuador and n. Peru will likely flood and S. Brazil, Argentina,
and Paraguay will have heaverier than avg. rains.
The 82-83 season cost Mex. and Central America $600 million, the
Philippines $450 mil. and $500 mil. in Indonesia. The worst being S.
Africa with $1 billion. World wide damage est. were $13 billion.
If I understand correctly this current EL Nino dwarfs that of 82-83.
I know how some markets should be affected, though I'm not knowledgable
of how we interrelate with all these countries, or what other countries
will be able to pick up the slack.
Your input is appreciated.
For those interested on following this phenomenon the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has an excellent continously
updated web page at www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/el-nino
Steve Geisler
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