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> Date: Tue, 16 Sep 1997 02:23:23 -0500
> Reply-to: cwlo@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> From: "Chris Lober" <cwlo@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: Re: Friday's T-Bond LDB
> X-To: <cliffsch@xxxxxxxxxx>,
> "RealTraders Discussion Group" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>
> I would be interested in opinions regarding the LDB data, and more
> specifically; the participant %'s. Is there too much noise in the
> CTI 1,2,3,4 data to be of any use, or is it just a matter of
> research and observation to be able to derive clues. The LDB data
> has always been overlooked and somewhat obscure to most, but would
> logically seem to be helpful. Also, does anyone use the intra-day
> releases.
>
I use it. It does take research and observation, and different parts
of it carry special importance at different times.
The paid subscription has information the unpaid does not.
As to intraday, I don't think they release that yet. There are
certain times when that would be VERY useful, and I would bet
the exchange gets pressure both from large outside players and
the floor not to do it. If you were a large player, just think what
you could do if you knew last hours action consisted mostly of PeeWee
Public's new long entries, and you could see in the charts a good
stop pivot 18 tics below. Hehe.
Question is, could you do your deed, or would the floor front-run the
stop area, and leave you short pretty big, then bid the market up
forcing you to scramble for cover???
...this kinda stuff goes on nearly every day. Nothing sinister about
it, either -- its just price discovery in a free market. It is fun
and very educational to experience though. Say that Solly, Morgan,
and Daiwa are putting some short hedges on in front of an auction.
They and other commercials are good sellers a 19-22, say. They sell
300-400 at a time and pretty soon a "ceiling" starts to form. So, the
pool grows to 800-900 offerred at 23, and no takers, so the market
just stalls there. The commercials get more aggressive thinking they
have found a top. They can't sell at 23, so they bring it down to 22,
and sell pretty good there, maybe too much, since they smell the top.
Some quiet 2-way flow carries on for a few minutes, then SUDDENLY
all the offers at 22 are taken out in a single trade by a local.
Maybe another local and a large spec buy everything for sale at 23
and turn the market from 800 offer to 1200 bid at 24. All this
happens in 8 seconds. If all goes as intended, in another 20 seconds,
the sellers at 19 have wet pants.
Cliff
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