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JW wrote:
> We seem to have a clear divergence in predictions for this time. On 7/11, Norman
> predicted (below) Goldilocks bailing out of the 3 Bears cottage without a parachute
> around now. Ronny Kraft today predicts a 5-10% down move within the next few (3?) weeks.
> On the other hand, Rich Ratchford is apparently calling for a bottom here (7/27) and
> Bobrabcd has stated that we have clear sailing for the next two weeks or so.
-I guess this divergence in prediction accounts for why we are
going sideways! <g>
Looking at the S&P Cash, there are a couple of Fibonacci
extension clusters that I find interesting:
1987 low to 90 high, extended from subsequent 90 low = a 4.25
extension= 946.77
July 96 low to Feb 97 high, extended from Apr lows = 946.77
The current high is 1 point off.
I'm sitting in the bear camp, I use Elliot Wave. Elliot
Oscillator has racked up quadruple divergence on the daily chart,
which internal 5 wave patterns to match. 1 day with another tight
range but a spike in volume may signal the final struggle before the
market moves. I'm primarily looking for a correction of the wave
from April lows, with a bottom coming in around 835 (Sep. S&P) : If
we're gonna correct this whole wave , then the correction should
come in 3 main waves, i.e. the B wave rally to kick in around 916
support after initial A wave tumble.
A more pronounced correction may be in the works if we do not
get a decent(50%) counter rally from the 908-916 support region.
(916 is a key 50% support , 908 is a key 62% support from the June
23rd base to the high). Beyond that, I won't speculate too much,
but in case of larger correction than 830-845, I'd see the next
major Fib. support coming in around April lows.
Well, that's my humble 2 cents worth on direction and potential
magnitude. As always, the market will have the final word! Whatever
direction it finally decides to take, should be a well
charged move - I hope we all take good advantage!
Happy Trading all,
Alec.
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