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Hello Chris,
love the multi faceted analysis. just curious--what is leading you
to expect fall mutual fund shakeout? seasonality? uncle point?
plantets?
Wednesday, September 05, 2001, 11:22:34 PM, you wrote:
CC> Bilo,
CC> A very astute trader/astrologer I know from another group picked Aug as a
CC> likely top for real estate. Apt Reits topped in Aug, despite chugging
CC> higher for most of the last couple of years, as did freddie and fannie.
CC> Also, my Agency note/treasury spread chart broke a couple of year
CC> uptrendline the last few days too. We'll see. I have a 16 year reit cycle
CC> that is next due to bottom in the fall of 06 (after 74 and 90)... so we're
CC> late in the game. My mid-range homebuilder friends here in TX are still in
CC> the "sell em as fast as they build em phase", but I suspect high end is
CC> different.
CC> When I was in the real estate biz, I developed a theory that no developer
CC> that built high rise condos in places like Dallas or LA ever made any money
CC> on them...maybe the guy who bought it from the bank (after foreclosure)
CC> did...and here in Dallas there are a lot of new high rise projects around.
CC> That time of the season I guess.
CC> People I know who retired on their stock market winnings a couple of years
CC> ago are now selling their luxury homes and downsizing, oh, and getting jobs
CC> too.
CC> Personally I think the late fall mutual fund shakeout is going to be a much
CC> bigger problem for this year than RE. Next year may be a different story.
CC> Chris
CC> ----- Original Message -----
CC> From: "Bilo Selhi" <citadel@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
CC> To: "Omega List" <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
CC> Sent: Wednesday, September 05, 2001 7:19 PM
CC> Subject: off topic: well, another rumor, about house market shakeout...
>> this time the rumor is that US house market
>> is nearing a shakeout.
>> one shake out down, another one to go.
>> my RE sources are telling me that the luxury housing
>> market is grossly overheated all around the country
>> and is about to correct, especially higher prices
>> ( expensive ) housing. the rational is that the
>> expensive homes are speculative investment
>> and as the owners
>> will try to take profits towards the end of the trend
>> the crash is imminent.
>>
>> i kinda feel it myself and you might start hearing
>> it on CNBC more often.
>> could anyone with RE connections please confirm
>> that you there is talk going on around...
>>
>> if that's the case then selling the overprice house now
>> and buying back similar house later might be
>> the best buy of the decade???
>>
>> certainly sounds and feels like that buying a house now
>> is tempting with low interest rates but what if it
>> collapses and rate goes even lower???
>> bilo.
>> ps. luxury housing ( whateverfront ) went up to 100-150 %
>> in the past 2-3 years... houses that were worth
>> 1-2 mil 2-3 years ago are now up to 5-6 mil.
>> waterfront luxury condos that were worth 1/4 mil
>> then are now more than 1/2 to a mil...
>> although those are price setters but feels like
>> reversion to the mean is a must here as those
>> investment have to be turned into hard cash.
>>
--
Best regards,
Jim mailto:jejohn@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
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