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Bilo,
A very astute trader/astrologer I know from another group picked Aug as a
likely top for real estate. Apt Reits topped in Aug, despite chugging
higher for most of the last couple of years, as did freddie and fannie.
Also, my Agency note/treasury spread chart broke a couple of year
uptrendline the last few days too. We'll see. I have a 16 year reit cycle
that is next due to bottom in the fall of 06 (after 74 and 90)... so we're
late in the game. My mid-range homebuilder friends here in TX are still in
the "sell em as fast as they build em phase", but I suspect high end is
different.
When I was in the real estate biz, I developed a theory that no developer
that built high rise condos in places like Dallas or LA ever made any money
on them...maybe the guy who bought it from the bank (after foreclosure)
did...and here in Dallas there are a lot of new high rise projects around.
That time of the season I guess.
People I know who retired on their stock market winnings a couple of years
ago are now selling their luxury homes and downsizing, oh, and getting jobs
too.
Personally I think the late fall mutual fund shakeout is going to be a much
bigger problem for this year than RE. Next year may be a different story.
Chris
----- Original Message -----
From: "Bilo Selhi" <citadel@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: "Omega List" <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, September 05, 2001 7:19 PM
Subject: off topic: well, another rumor, about house market shakeout...
> this time the rumor is that US house market
> is nearing a shakeout.
> one shake out down, another one to go.
> my RE sources are telling me that the luxury housing
> market is grossly overheated all around the country
> and is about to correct, especially higher prices
> ( expensive ) housing. the rational is that the
> expensive homes are speculative investment
> and as the owners
> will try to take profits towards the end of the trend
> the crash is imminent.
>
> i kinda feel it myself and you might start hearing
> it on CNBC more often.
> could anyone with RE connections please confirm
> that you there is talk going on around...
>
> if that's the case then selling the overprice house now
> and buying back similar house later might be
> the best buy of the decade???
>
> certainly sounds and feels like that buying a house now
> is tempting with low interest rates but what if it
> collapses and rate goes even lower???
> bilo.
> ps. luxury housing ( whateverfront ) went up to 100-150 %
> in the past 2-3 years... houses that were worth
> 1-2 mil 2-3 years ago are now up to 5-6 mil.
> waterfront luxury condos that were worth 1/4 mil
> then are now more than 1/2 to a mil...
> although those are price setters but feels like
> reversion to the mean is a must here as those
> investment have to be turned into hard cash.
>
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