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Hi Jim,
A few things ...
apparently there is a quite precise 72 year cycle of financial panics for
the entire history of the US...astrology attributes it to procession of the
equinoxes...not sure about that but with its accuracy I pay attention.
late fall particularly, due to the Oct y/e for lotso mutual funds and the
tax bills going to holders for gains they did not get, etc. Forced
liquidation to pay redemptions in an illiquid mkt, brings lower prices and
even more redemptions. Thre boys have done a very nice job of keeping the
small/midcaps up while they've been liquidating the GEs, IBMs, MSFTs, etc.
When the mid market funds try to sell in a now falling mkt, there is no mkt.
I used to trade midcap futures...when it goes (up or down) it goes big
without much of the specialist churn of the S&P/NYSE. And undoubtedly, some
brilliant fund manager will try to pay redemptions on their credit line and
will go poof! Gov bailout of the mutual fund business???
Actually Japan gov is considering buying stock to prop up mkt right now.
Not sure about the timing, but Japan is going to reach a crises point
someday too. My long term targets for the Nikkei are 4000-5000; given cross
share holdings, etc. many Japanese banks are probably close to bankrupt
now...derivative issues if no one will trade with them? Must be some very
interesting conversations going on with the rating agencies right now. :-)
Astro wise, there is a quite malefic pluto saturn opposition off and on til
next May. What has been has happening to day is every small planet trigger
seems to bring on a little more selling.
Regards,
Chris
----- Original Message -----
From: "Jim Johnson" <jejohn@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: "Chris Cheatham" <nchrisc@xxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: "Bilo Selhi" <citadel@xxxxxxxxxxxx>; "Omega List"
<omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, September 06, 2001 7:12 AM
Subject: Re[2]: off topic: well, another rumor, about house market
shakeout...
> Hello Chris,
>
> love the multi faceted analysis. just curious--what is leading you
> to expect fall mutual fund shakeout? seasonality? uncle point?
> plantets?
>
>
> Wednesday, September 05, 2001, 11:22:34 PM, you wrote:
>
> CC> Bilo,
>
> CC> A very astute trader/astrologer I know from another group picked Aug
as a
> CC> likely top for real estate. Apt Reits topped in Aug, despite chugging
> CC> higher for most of the last couple of years, as did freddie and
fannie.
> CC> Also, my Agency note/treasury spread chart broke a couple of year
> CC> uptrendline the last few days too. We'll see. I have a 16 year reit
cycle
> CC> that is next due to bottom in the fall of 06 (after 74 and 90)... so
we're
> CC> late in the game. My mid-range homebuilder friends here in TX are
still in
> CC> the "sell em as fast as they build em phase", but I suspect high end
is
> CC> different.
>
> CC> When I was in the real estate biz, I developed a theory that no
developer
> CC> that built high rise condos in places like Dallas or LA ever made any
money
> CC> on them...maybe the guy who bought it from the bank (after
foreclosure)
> CC> did...and here in Dallas there are a lot of new high rise projects
around.
> CC> That time of the season I guess.
>
> CC> People I know who retired on their stock market winnings a couple of
years
> CC> ago are now selling their luxury homes and downsizing, oh, and getting
jobs
> CC> too.
>
> CC> Personally I think the late fall mutual fund shakeout is going to be a
much
> CC> bigger problem for this year than RE. Next year may be a different
story.
>
> CC> Chris
>
>
>
>
> CC> ----- Original Message -----
> CC> From: "Bilo Selhi" <citadel@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> CC> To: "Omega List" <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
> CC> Sent: Wednesday, September 05, 2001 7:19 PM
> CC> Subject: off topic: well, another rumor, about house market
shakeout...
>
>
> >> this time the rumor is that US house market
> >> is nearing a shakeout.
> >> one shake out down, another one to go.
> >> my RE sources are telling me that the luxury housing
> >> market is grossly overheated all around the country
> >> and is about to correct, especially higher prices
> >> ( expensive ) housing. the rational is that the
> >> expensive homes are speculative investment
> >> and as the owners
> >> will try to take profits towards the end of the trend
> >> the crash is imminent.
> >>
> >> i kinda feel it myself and you might start hearing
> >> it on CNBC more often.
> >> could anyone with RE connections please confirm
> >> that you there is talk going on around...
> >>
> >> if that's the case then selling the overprice house now
> >> and buying back similar house later might be
> >> the best buy of the decade???
> >>
> >> certainly sounds and feels like that buying a house now
> >> is tempting with low interest rates but what if it
> >> collapses and rate goes even lower???
> >> bilo.
> >> ps. luxury housing ( whateverfront ) went up to 100-150 %
> >> in the past 2-3 years... houses that were worth
> >> 1-2 mil 2-3 years ago are now up to 5-6 mil.
> >> waterfront luxury condos that were worth 1/4 mil
> >> then are now more than 1/2 to a mil...
> >> although those are price setters but feels like
> >> reversion to the mean is a must here as those
> >> investment have to be turned into hard cash.
> >>
>
>
>
> --
> Best regards,
> Jim mailto:jejohn@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
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