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Many thanks to all who responded to my call for help.
For those interested:
The Business Cycle Dating Commitee of the Natl Bureau of Economic Research
(NBER) officially dates US recessions. It's a private, non-profit
organization.
They consider the popular definition of two consecutive quarters of
declining GDP as too narrow a measure.
Here's their definition:
A broad decline in aggregate economic activity (which is measured as a
common movement in output, income, employment, and trade), usually lasting
from six months to a year, and marked by widespread contractions in many
sectors of the economy.
Anyone wishing more information should read "How Reliable Are Recession
Prediction Models? by Andrew J. Filardo, available at:
http://www.kc.frb.org/publicat/econrev/PDF/2q99fila.pdf
Again, thanks for the help,
FPI
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