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Re[3]: System of the Future



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Hello  robert,

rcwan> Mark who do you know other than yourself who actually trades mechanical. 
rcwan> The advantage of mechanical trading could be said that the computer can see 
rcwan> what the human eye can't and remains consistent. It also could be said 
rcwan> mechanical trading removes the human emotion. The main culprit in trading 
rcwan> failure.

If I were the ostrich I would stick my head and say and right here and
read no further.

rcwan>  But heres the thing most mechanical traders I talk too believe. 
rcwan> Using discretion with their trading programs is mechanical trading. You 
rcwan> said "Discretionary trading on the other hand is continually evolving 
rcwan> towards becoming mechanical". You make an important point here which I 
rcwan> agree. Mechanical trading is automated, meaning correct me if I'm wrong 
rcwan> here taking every trade the mechanical trading problem says to, no 
rcwan> exception. Mechanical trading using the operators discretion is not 
rcwan> mechanical trading.

Believe me  when  I  say  he  there  is  a growing number of mechanical
traders  they  do  have  a complete faith take every trade approach to
systems.  I personally know of several who have and/or in the process
of  implementing  completely mechanical order entry systems into their
trading.   This  will allow a trader who has a mechanical system which
he has faith in to further over come that last bit of emotional baggage.

There  are others better in various stages of getting to this process.
But  this  level  of  supposed sophistication is much less rare today
than  it  was  even  just  a  year  ago. Soon we will see a commercial
product  become  available  to  electronically  inter orders given from
mechanical trading systems automatically.  I will predict this product
will  most  likely  have originated from a country other than the U.S.
which has less litigation and liability issues.

rcwan> The only measurement the discretionary trader needs is his bank account for
rcwan> proof. To generalize and say all the bad traders in the E-mini. Means 
rcwan> everybody that doesn't use totally mechanical computer generated trades?

I certainly did not mean to imply that every body traits the E-Mini is
an  inexperienced  trader.   I  certainly  believe their discretionary
traders  who  are  making  money  trading all markets.  I believe that
those  who  are  successful  are  trading  outside  the  noise  levels
generated  by those who are less experienced.  When you look at an E-Mini
chart  typically  the small chop that you see is nothing more than the
absurdly small risk stops that inexperience traders are using.

I  will also state that I completely believe discretionary traders who
are  experienced  can  make money as well as a mechanical trader whose
experienced  can also make money.  This coming from the perspective of
a  mechanical  trader.   However  it  never ceases to amaze me that the
discretionary trader can not have as open a mind.

SNIP>

rcwan> Then tell me who is losing money in the markets the most?

Obviously  those  who  take  this business lightly, and viewed as some
hobby to  be conquered rather than the most sophisticated undertaking
mankind has tackled other than those which are a biological in nature.

rcwan> respect for you as a person and I believe you or a great trader. But your
rcwan> talking about yourself here and you are right where you are concerned.

I  view   myself   as  someone  who  can be honest with themselves and
know  I  would  never make a great discretionary trader. I have worked
for   several  successful  discretionary  traders.   They  all  never
expressed  a  doubt  that  fully  mechanical  trading  cannot  be  as
successful  if  not more successful than discretionary.  They were all
working  towards  the goals of fully mechanical trading.  However when
confronted   with  the  reality  that this might be a possibility, the
need to be in control overtook all logic.

rcwan> Robert


--
Best regards,
  Mark Brown                        mailto:markbrown@xxxxxxxxxxxxx