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Hmmm....then those people making money with technical analysis is doing
something wrong.......as they are not supposed to make money......those
deviates....
> -----Original Message-----
> From: nonlinear <keptinkaos@xxxxxxxxx>
> To: omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: Wednesday, July 28, 1999 8:41 AM
> Subject: larry williams, fundamentalist?
>
> >well, another technical cult guru bits the big weenie :)) i guess that
> >explains why miles dunbar is publishing commodity timing these days.
> >whatever.
> >
> >ya gotta love it!!!
> >
> >TJ
> >
> >at one time, i thought all this technical stuff meant something. i no
> >longer think it means much. -- larry williams
> >
> >
> >Chicago-July 27-FWN--Larry Williams has evolved from a technical trader
> >in the 1960s into one who now relies heavily upon fundamentals and
> >conditions. "At one time, I thought all this technical stuff meant
> >something," he said. "I no longer think it means much. "Books of that
> >era (the 1960s) professed that charts answered everything. I don't
> >really believe that anymore. I think what answers everything is
> >fundamentals. Things happen for a reason. "Before taking any trade, I
> >need to have something that has set it up on a fundamental
> >basis--whether it's a short- term trade or a long-term trade. Then I'll
> >bring in the technical aspect. "I am what I call a `conditional
> >trader.' I've got to have conditions. The conditions are more important
> >than some whirly-gig oscillator or a trendline on a chart. "I think
> >those things explain the past. But they don't explain the future."
> >Williams is a highly regarded trader who focuses mainly on futures
> >markets, although he will occasionally trade an individual stock. He
> >lives by Rancho Santa Fe, Calif., near San Diego. He has written
> >several books, including "How I Made $1 Million Trading Commodities
> >Last Year," which was about one of his trading years in the early
> >1970s. He has had two other $1 million dollar years. In 1987, he won
> >the Robins World Cup Trading Championship by turning $10,000 in to $1.1
> >million. And in 1997, he turned $50,000 into more than $1 million. Some
> >of his other books include "How Seasonal Factors Influence Commodity
> >Prices" and two volumes of "Definitive Guide to Commodity Trading." His
> >most recent book is "Long-Term Secrets to Short-Term Trading." Williams
> >described his shift from a technical trader to a fundamental/conditions
> >trader as a gradual learning process. The conditions he monitors range
> >from fresh news to historical tendencies. "It has to deal with
> >cause-and-effect relationships in the marketplace," he said. "Those
> >things are controlling. Charts don't move the markets. Markets move the
> >charts. And I need to find out what those things are that are moving
> >the markets. "Also, I prefer to have not just one (condition). I'd like
> >to have a couple. I'd like to have a loaded deck." Some of the data he
> >tracks include the Commitments of Traders reports that come out every
> >other Friday, investor sentiment indexes, interest rates, and
> >relationships of markets to other markets. He added that there are
> >certain times of the year when the Federal Reserve has tended to add
> >money to the economy. Once Williams determines whether a market's
> >conditions are bullish or bearish, he might use technical factors for
> >specific entry into a market and placement of stops. But, he added, "I
> >think too many people have seen technicals as the be-all, end-all, and
> >they don't see it as one, little tiny element of the puzzle." Some
> >traders tend to favor technical analysis because they say it's hard to
> >ascertain whether a fundamental condition is fully or partially
> >factored into a market. "I understand their point," said Williams. Yet,
> >he maintained that fundamentals cannot be ignored, either. "The
> >fundamentals are not precise as a timing technique. But a technical buy
> >signal in a fundamental bull market has a totally different impact than
> >a technical buy signal in a fundamental bear market. You have to go
> >back and check the premise. "A buy signal is not always a (reliable)
> >buy signal. It depends on the conditions. If the stage is set for a
> >rally, great, the buy signal is going to work. But if it isn't, the buy
> >signal isn't going to work very well." Williams' average trade tends to
> >last from three to five days. His favorite futures markets are the
> >bonds and S&P 500 futures index. "They have lots of movement, and I
> >need that as a short-term trader," he said. "They are very
> >fundamentally oriented. There are lots of cause-and-effect things in
> >the bond market and stock market, and I like to have that advantage
> >
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