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Gee do you think Larry will be giving back any money for
all those folks who attended his seminars over the years?
Say it ain't so Larry.....say it ain't so......
Chas
-----Original Message-----
From: nonlinear <keptinkaos@xxxxxxxxx>
To: omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Wednesday, July 28, 1999 8:41 AM
Subject: larry williams, fundamentalist?
>well, another technical cult guru bits the big weenie :)) i guess that
>explains why miles dunbar is publishing commodity timing these days.
>whatever.
>
>ya gotta love it!!!
>
>TJ
>
>at one time, i thought all this technical stuff meant something. i no
>longer think it means much. -- larry williams
>
>
>Chicago-July 27-FWN--Larry Williams has evolved from a technical trader
>in the 1960s into one who now relies heavily upon fundamentals and
>conditions. "At one time, I thought all this technical stuff meant
>something," he said. "I no longer think it means much. "Books of that
>era (the 1960s) professed that charts answered everything. I don't
>really believe that anymore. I think what answers everything is
>fundamentals. Things happen for a reason. "Before taking any trade, I
>need to have something that has set it up on a fundamental
>basis--whether it's a short- term trade or a long-term trade. Then I'll
>bring in the technical aspect. "I am what I call a `conditional
>trader.' I've got to have conditions. The conditions are more important
>than some whirly-gig oscillator or a trendline on a chart. "I think
>those things explain the past. But they don't explain the future."
>Williams is a highly regarded trader who focuses mainly on futures
>markets, although he will occasionally trade an individual stock. He
>lives by Rancho Santa Fe, Calif., near San Diego. He has written
>several books, including "How I Made $1 Million Trading Commodities
>Last Year," which was about one of his trading years in the early
>1970s. He has had two other $1 million dollar years. In 1987, he won
>the Robins World Cup Trading Championship by turning $10,000 in to $1.1
>million. And in 1997, he turned $50,000 into more than $1 million. Some
>of his other books include "How Seasonal Factors Influence Commodity
>Prices" and two volumes of "Definitive Guide to Commodity Trading." His
>most recent book is "Long-Term Secrets to Short-Term Trading." Williams
>described his shift from a technical trader to a fundamental/conditions
>trader as a gradual learning process. The conditions he monitors range
>from fresh news to historical tendencies. "It has to deal with
>cause-and-effect relationships in the marketplace," he said. "Those
>things are controlling. Charts don't move the markets. Markets move the
>charts. And I need to find out what those things are that are moving
>the markets. "Also, I prefer to have not just one (condition). I'd like
>to have a couple. I'd like to have a loaded deck." Some of the data he
>tracks include the Commitments of Traders reports that come out every
>other Friday, investor sentiment indexes, interest rates, and
>relationships of markets to other markets. He added that there are
>certain times of the year when the Federal Reserve has tended to add
>money to the economy. Once Williams determines whether a market's
>conditions are bullish or bearish, he might use technical factors for
>specific entry into a market and placement of stops. But, he added, "I
>think too many people have seen technicals as the be-all, end-all, and
>they don't see it as one, little tiny element of the puzzle." Some
>traders tend to favor technical analysis because they say it's hard to
>ascertain whether a fundamental condition is fully or partially
>factored into a market. "I understand their point," said Williams. Yet,
>he maintained that fundamentals cannot be ignored, either. "The
>fundamentals are not precise as a timing technique. But a technical buy
>signal in a fundamental bull market has a totally different impact than
>a technical buy signal in a fundamental bear market. You have to go
>back and check the premise. "A buy signal is not always a (reliable)
>buy signal. It depends on the conditions. If the stage is set for a
>rally, great, the buy signal is going to work. But if it isn't, the buy
>signal isn't going to work very well." Williams' average trade tends to
>last from three to five days. His favorite futures markets are the
>bonds and S&P 500 futures index. "They have lots of movement, and I
>need that as a short-term trader," he said. "They are very
>fundamentally oriented. There are lots of cause-and-effect things in
>the bond market and stock market, and I like to have that advantage
>
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