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> >This is like a retailer excluding the December trade when calculating
> >profitability. For me the outliners are the profit. The rest is keeping
my
> >head above water until the next one.
> >Andrew D.
>
> There is only preference rather than some apriori logic when it comes to
> outliers.
> In your case, you are saying you need to have your shop open all year
> around to so that you can catch the Christmas crowd recognition.
> You are comfortable with that risk, that come a Christmas and with a
> recession,
> the crowd will still be there in sufficient numbers and purchasing power.
> Someone else may prefer a market niche where he/she profits somes most
> of the months and bumber sales weeks are "nice to have". For them they
> got to outlier the bumper sales weeks. For you, a safety measure is to
> check the consistency of getting a bumper period at all for a time window
> (your cashflow window using the retail analogy).
This certainly has made me think. However my assumption has been to apply
this to as many markets as possible, so I can expect my Christmases to come
all year round. It comes down to your beliefs about market behaviour. Mine
are that markets are pretty much random except for the "outliners" when
crowd psychology takes over and markets overshoot and go way too high or
low.
Andrew Dykes.
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