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I believe Ralph may have just not remembered the exact details and dates of
his original calls. But I agree with you to some extent, for a man of his
stature, he should have remembered !!!
His market forecast calls and that of Abbey Joe Cohen are usually fine for
4-12 month time frames.
Forget them for anything shorter than that.
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Mark Brown [mailto:markbrown@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Monday, May 17, 1999 10:18 AM
> To: Omega List
> Subject: Omega's Market Expert!
>
>
> It seems that Ralph is on the cover of Omega magazine as the expert on the
> market.
>
> Is this the type of experts that Bill Cruz has enlisted for you to worship
> at Vegas?
>
> March 21, 1999
>
> To: Wall Street Week
>
> Re: Ralph Acampora's Record
>
> Mr. A. seems to be afflicted with that common Wall Street virus known as
> "convenient memory-itis". On your show Friday (March 19,1999) he made some
> blatantly false statements and I'd like to inject some reality
> into Mr. A's
> fantasy world (where all his forecasts are perfect). The following points
> are a matter of public record:
>
> 1) He claimed on your show March 19, 1999 that he went bearish on August
> 7th, 1998 and called for a correction to DJIA 7400. In fact, he was
> interviewed on CNBC on Monday, Aug.10th and he was a raving Bull. He went
> bearish on the very next day, Aug. 11th. From the high on the S&P 500 of
> 1190 on July 20th to the low of 1054 on Aug.10th is a move of 136
> points or
> 11.4% - this means Mr. A. only got worried AFTER a huge correction had
> already occurred, and after he had told his followers to add to positions,
> which then immediately lost more money. On his very next
> appearance on your
> show, if you recall, you yourself took him to task for his flip-flopping.
>
> In order to be effective, a sell signal should give investors
> several week's
> advance notice so they can act appropriately. Mr. A. has nothing
> to be proud
> of here. Also, he says that his full target was 7400, but actually as the
> market hit that target in late August and again in Sept. &
> October, he then
> predicted lower levels. He never told investors to buy when it
> hit 7400, he
> got them MORE worried.
>
> 2) His next statement on your show was that he turned bullish "on
> Oct. 10th
> after the Fed had lowered rates twice." Of course, everyone knows that the
> Fed's second rate cut was on Oct.15th, just an hour before
> trading ended for
> the day. Even if Mr. A. went bullish at that close, it means that the S&P
> had already rallied from its Oct. 9th low of 923 to the close on
> Oct.15th of
> 1047 - and Mr. A. had again missed a large part of the move, 13.4% in this
> case.
>
> 3) His third comment on your show was that he "called for a near-term
> correction in Jan.1999". Again, this is false. On Jan.20th, when
> the S&P 500
> hit a high of 1274 he sent out a commentary to clients that stated " if I
> were an asset-allocator, I would be 100% invested in stocks." When the
> market failed to jump higher, he must have gotten worried, and on
> Feb.9th he
> then went bearish - the S&P 500 closed at 1216 that day. He then
> called for
> a 5% to 10% correction all right - but by that time, the market
> had already
> corrected by 58 points = 4.6%. So here again, Mr. A. is bullish at the top
> of the trading range and bearish at the bottom. He did NOT get
> bullish again
> until the morning of March 5th, when it was obvious to everyone that the
> futures would open much higher & blast the DJIA through the 9600
> resistance.
>
>
> I like to believe that on your show you are not afraid to "tell it like it
> is", despite your sponsors including companies like Mr. A.'s
> employer. I do
> not think that forecasters should be allowed to get away with twisting the
> truth to amend their mediocre track records, such as in the case
> of analysts
> like Ralph Acampora. This revision of history cheapens the entire
> industry's
> image. You would be much better served to have capable technicians like
> Frank Teixeira from the Wellington Group, Ian Notley, Stan Weinstein, or
> Gene Inger as representatives of the Technician's Assoc. And you'd do your
> viewers a great service to verify Ralph Acampora's record. No one expects
> any analyst to be perfect. We do like to see some humility about
> the truth,
> however.
>
> Sincerely,
> Faithful, concerned viewer
>
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