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It seems that Ralph is on the cover of Omega magazine as the expert on the
market.
Is this the type of experts that Bill Cruz has enlisted for you to worship
at Vegas?
March 21, 1999
To: Wall Street Week
Re: Ralph Acampora's Record
Mr. A. seems to be afflicted with that common Wall Street virus known as
"convenient memory-itis". On your show Friday (March 19,1999) he made some
blatantly false statements and I'd like to inject some reality into Mr. A's
fantasy world (where all his forecasts are perfect). The following points
are a matter of public record:
1) He claimed on your show March 19, 1999 that he went bearish on August
7th, 1998 and called for a correction to DJIA 7400. In fact, he was
interviewed on CNBC on Monday, Aug.10th and he was a raving Bull. He went
bearish on the very next day, Aug. 11th. From the high on the S&P 500 of
1190 on July 20th to the low of 1054 on Aug.10th is a move of 136 points or
11.4% - this means Mr. A. only got worried AFTER a huge correction had
already occurred, and after he had told his followers to add to positions,
which then immediately lost more money. On his very next appearance on your
show, if you recall, you yourself took him to task for his flip-flopping.
In order to be effective, a sell signal should give investors several week's
advance notice so they can act appropriately. Mr. A. has nothing to be proud
of here. Also, he says that his full target was 7400, but actually as the
market hit that target in late August and again in Sept. & October, he then
predicted lower levels. He never told investors to buy when it hit 7400, he
got them MORE worried.
2) His next statement on your show was that he turned bullish "on Oct. 10th
after the Fed had lowered rates twice." Of course, everyone knows that the
Fed's second rate cut was on Oct.15th, just an hour before trading ended for
the day. Even if Mr. A. went bullish at that close, it means that the S&P
had already rallied from its Oct. 9th low of 923 to the close on Oct.15th of
1047 - and Mr. A. had again missed a large part of the move, 13.4% in this
case.
3) His third comment on your show was that he "called for a near-term
correction in Jan.1999". Again, this is false. On Jan.20th, when the S&P 500
hit a high of 1274 he sent out a commentary to clients that stated " if I
were an asset-allocator, I would be 100% invested in stocks." When the
market failed to jump higher, he must have gotten worried, and on Feb.9th he
then went bearish - the S&P 500 closed at 1216 that day. He then called for
a 5% to 10% correction all right - but by that time, the market had already
corrected by 58 points = 4.6%. So here again, Mr. A. is bullish at the top
of the trading range and bearish at the bottom. He did NOT get bullish again
until the morning of March 5th, when it was obvious to everyone that the
futures would open much higher & blast the DJIA through the 9600 resistance.
I like to believe that on your show you are not afraid to "tell it like it
is", despite your sponsors including companies like Mr. A.'s employer. I do
not think that forecasters should be allowed to get away with twisting the
truth to amend their mediocre track records, such as in the case of analysts
like Ralph Acampora. This revision of history cheapens the entire industry's
image. You would be much better served to have capable technicians like
Frank Teixeira from the Wellington Group, Ian Notley, Stan Weinstein, or
Gene Inger as representatives of the Technician's Assoc. And you'd do your
viewers a great service to verify Ralph Acampora's record. No one expects
any analyst to be perfect. We do like to see some humility about the truth,
however.
Sincerely,
Faithful, concerned viewer
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