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Alan,
There is such thing as beginner's luck. Where a new trader didn't know or break
all the rules and made some money, but in the long run, the market will still cull
him out. This is
the beauty of the market forces,any deviation to the mean will be put back on line.
Its possible to make a big fortune without knowing anything, just being at the
right place at the right time. For example you just got in to a trend, by chance
when you first throw in
your hat in the ring, and you rode and rode a big long term one directional trend.
The only way you get out and retire, is you just quit while you are ahead, because
thats all it is , pure luck !! And some people think they are pure genius, and the
market will give them
a wake up call soon than later. Sometimes lick is mistaken for skill or talent.
. Just go to Las Vegas, there are some really winning streaks by gamblers, but the
casinos
knows better that in the big schemem of things, the law of numbers will take any
luck
factor out of the equation. . The advises of the old timers will come back and
haunt you again and again for the rest of your trading life. Everyday, everyweek
there are new traders, and of course some of them will hit the jackpot the same
week.
And yes, its possible, inside you, just might be (got the right stuff/potential )
that 5% winners (Gold Olympians, they exist too!) among all existing traders. As
long as you last long enough, and learned the ropes,you just might get it and the
advises of the old timers, are just what the doctor ordered to make you reached
that longetivity goal.
Most newbies fantasize about making a (think they got what it takes) Quick big
fortune trading,(must have got the idea from Ken Roberts, Haha!). No , I don't
think its like that. the only way to became rich in the markets is to have big big
positions (this alone takes big capital)and also being on the right side, simple
but not easy. Like wine, you got to mature first with time and experience. In
reality if you only knew what you have to go through in order to become super
succeessful in trading , you just might go back crawling and get a regular 9 to 5
job. Successful traders, eat, drink and sleep the markets. Their dedication to
their chosen vocation is obsession like.
alan myers wrote:
> Jeff Caplan wrote:
>
> > ...and not a single response from anyone saying "I make a living by
> > daytrading."
>
> Jeff,
>
> I think that the discussion that followed this post, although all valuable
> insights, missed the big point. People said to proceed with caution, be
> prepared (time, money, psychology), be disciplined, the odds are against you,
> etc. As true as this advice is, it is also true that either in the past or in
> the future, someone will succeed who violates one or all of these rules.
>
> Much was said about the probability of success. This, although interesting, is
> not relevant IMHO. I mean, what other expectations would you have about an
> industry where great wealth is possible with small barriers to entry, no
> training required, and no support for new traders? There is no manager or
> senior partner with a vested interest in your success that will save you from
> your newbie mistakes.
>
> The beauty of trading is that you are on your own. The downside of trading is
> that you are on your own. It's no secret that people enter this business
> thinking that all they have to do is buy/sell when 2 lines cross. The only
> calculations required are in determining how long it will take to make make the
> first million $.
>
> Here is what relevant from my point of view. Every experience I've ever had in
> my life supports this following story and none contradict it:
>
> At some point I learned that Thomas Edison invented the light bulb. I also
> learned that he was a genius. I never thought much about those two things
> except that it would probably be easy for a genius to invent something. I've
> since read that it took Edison over 10,000 attempts to develop the proper
> combination of elements for the filament. That's genius. What must have been
> going through his mind after, say, 7,463 failures? What did his
> wife(?)/friends/associates have to say about it? This story may be one of
> those "Urban Myths" but if it is, there are other similar stories that *are*
> true.
>
> Everyone experiences failures. There are only 2 responses to failure. One is
> to quit. The other is to see failure as a setback - still possible but now
> success is just farther away for now.
>
> Here's a true fact: You can overcome any odds, even those widely regarded as
> impossible (not just improbable). History is filled with examples. Every
> trader or anyone else that attempted anything difficult to impossible and
> succeeded has one thing in common. Somewhere along the way, they decided that
> they would succeed - or at least that they wouldn't quit until every possible
> option was exhausted completely.
>
> You will succeed at daytrading or anything else if you keep trying. The path
> will be different for everyone and consistently difficult to find. You will
> find the resources required to continue, if it is important to you.. What is
> more difficult to come by is the "continue no matter what" attitude. If at
> anytime you decide that it is impossible for you to succeed, then it will be.
> If failure is not an option, then you are at least on your way.
>
> Daytraders mostly fail? Columbus and his crew had been told by the most
> respected authorities at the time that the world was flat.
>
> -Alan
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