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Jeff Caplan wrote:
> ...and not a single response from anyone saying "I make a living by
> daytrading."
Jeff,
I think that the discussion that followed this post, although all valuable
insights, missed the big point. People said to proceed with caution, be
prepared (time, money, psychology), be disciplined, the odds are against you,
etc. As true as this advice is, it is also true that either in the past or in
the future, someone will succeed who violates one or all of these rules.
Much was said about the probability of success. This, although interesting, is
not relevant IMHO. I mean, what other expectations would you have about an
industry where great wealth is possible with small barriers to entry, no
training required, and no support for new traders? There is no manager or
senior partner with a vested interest in your success that will save you from
your newbie mistakes.
The beauty of trading is that you are on your own. The downside of trading is
that you are on your own. It's no secret that people enter this business
thinking that all they have to do is buy/sell when 2 lines cross. The only
calculations required are in determining how long it will take to make make the
first million $.
Here is what relevant from my point of view. Every experience I've ever had in
my life supports this following story and none contradict it:
At some point I learned that Thomas Edison invented the light bulb. I also
learned that he was a genius. I never thought much about those two things
except that it would probably be easy for a genius to invent something. I've
since read that it took Edison over 10,000 attempts to develop the proper
combination of elements for the filament. That's genius. What must have been
going through his mind after, say, 7,463 failures? What did his
wife(?)/friends/associates have to say about it? This story may be one of
those "Urban Myths" but if it is, there are other similar stories that *are*
true.
Everyone experiences failures. There are only 2 responses to failure. One is
to quit. The other is to see failure as a setback - still possible but now
success is just farther away for now.
Here's a true fact: You can overcome any odds, even those widely regarded as
impossible (not just improbable). History is filled with examples. Every
trader or anyone else that attempted anything difficult to impossible and
succeeded has one thing in common. Somewhere along the way, they decided that
they would succeed - or at least that they wouldn't quit until every possible
option was exhausted completely.
You will succeed at daytrading or anything else if you keep trying. The path
will be different for everyone and consistently difficult to find. You will
find the resources required to continue, if it is important to you.. What is
more difficult to come by is the "continue no matter what" attitude. If at
anytime you decide that it is impossible for you to succeed, then it will be.
If failure is not an option, then you are at least on your way.
Daytraders mostly fail? Columbus and his crew had been told by the most
respected authorities at the time that the world was flat.
-Alan
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