|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Hard to trade and send mail at the same time, sorry for the repeated same
posts.
Robert
At 01:51 PM 10/13/98 -0500, Robert W Cummings wrote:
>
>
>I fall in the category of discretionary trader using indicators. I use
>three indicators, a revised version of the CCI, a momentum indicator and a
>referenced MA for the big trend. I don't use stops but time and if I'm not
>profitable right off the bat I'm looking to get out and do keep a mental
>monetary stop and
>if it hits that I'm gone. Time of day is important and time length of the
>trade is important. Hardest thing to do is buy into weakness and sell into
>strength but that's what I've found works best because I'm not on the floor
>so I can't afford to wait. On the exit I sell into strength and buy into
>weakness.
>Patterns is what I see because all my indicators lag but I use them like
>you use white lines driving your car.
>Thats why I'm looking at stocks now the executions in the S&P is good but
>not 2 seconds like it is in stocks.
>Hard on the nerves day trading this way and is just plan hard work. I'm
>still an emotional trader and emotional traders needs short time spans real
>short. I guess I'm a control freak and can stand it when I have to hope a
>trade. Except for grains I'm long corn and beans and that doesn't bother me
>because I had that planned in my mind, I don't even look at it until next
>spring.
>
>
>Robert
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Ramin Zahraie wrote:
>>Neil, these are excellent points.
>>
>>It seems to me that these 'gambler indicators' are based on linear
>>methods and these indicators are attempting to model a non-linear
>>system.
>>
>>Having said that, I have looked into fields of non-linear dynamics,
>>chaos and fractals. Unfortunately, I have been unable to establish any
>>relationship between theories of these fields and dynamics of markets in
>>general [shortcoming mine].
>>
>>Recently, I came across the works of Henry D.I. Abarbanel of Institute
>>of Nonlinear Science in San Diego. Abarbanel has written a book titled
>>"Analysis of Observed Chaotic Data." This book has a target audience of
>>hard core academics and scientists in the fields of physics, mathematics
>>and other related sciences.
>>
>>>From what I have seen and read of this book, it is conceivable that some
>>of the concepts presented here can be applied to the markets. In one of
>>the examples cited in this publication, Abarbanel attempts to forecast a
>>chaotic time series. The time series presented is the volume of Great
>>Salt Lake. As I look at the chart of this time series, it strongly
>>resembles the closing price of any stock or commodity. Interestingly
>>enough, Abarbanel's non-linear forecast, closely forecasts the Salt Lake
>>volume up to 15 days in advance!
>>
>>As one can imagine, this book is filled with complex mathematics and
>>formulas. Implementing the presented concepts in TradeStation or other
>>TA programs, would be extremely difficult or perhaps even impossible.
>>One of the key tools required for this kind of analysis is a k-d Tree
>>data structure. Appearantly, Abrabanel tried to implement these
>>techniques in Matlab but was unable to. He and his team wrote their own
>>software.
>>
>>On a positve note, it appears that someone with trading interest, has at
>>least attempted to incorporate some of these ideas into technical
>>analysis.
>>
>>Please see:
>>
>>http://www.scifi.co.uk/contents.htm#CONTENTS
>>
>>I don't know if this was what Neil had in mind in regards to starting a
>>discussion on non-gambling indicators, but perhaps it might be a step in
>>the right direction.
>>
>>Rgrds
>>
>>RZ
>>
>>> 3. If #2 is false, please list some popular non-gambler indicators.
>>>
>>> 4. If #2 is true, please list some non-gambler indicators that work, or as
>>> Allan said, "Is there information in the price series and other
intermarket
>>> information that can give short-term predictability?" (I thought this was
>>> the objective of all indicator development).
>>>
>>> 5. Gambler indicators are all basically logically-based and easy to
>>> calculate. The impression I have of non-gambler indicators is that they
are
>>> rocket science, not published, not generally available to the public, and
>>> thus the private domain of a few rocket scientists. I consider myself
>>> "smarter than your average bear", but not a rocket scientist, and
currently
>>> know of no indicators that I think the list would consider non-gambler
>>> indicators.
>>>
>>
>>
>
>
|