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I fall in the category of discretionary trader using indicators. I use
three indicators, a revised version of the CCI, a momentum indicator and a
referenced MA for the big trend. I don't use stops but time and if I'm not
profitable right off the bat I'm looking to get out and do keep a mental
monetary stop and
if it hits that I'm gone. Time of day is important and time length of the
trade is important. Hardest thing to do is buy into weakness and sell into
strength but that's what I've found works best because I'm not on the floor
so I can't afford to wait. On the exit I sell into strength and buy into
weakness.
Patterns is what I see because all my indicators lag but I use them like
you use white lines driving your car.
Thats why I'm looking at stocks now the executions in the S&P is good but
not 2 seconds like it is in stocks.
Hard on the nerves day trading this way and is just plan hard work. I'm
still an emotional trader and emotional traders needs short time spans real
short. I guess I'm a control freak and can stand it when I have to hope a
trade. Except for grains I'm long corn and beans and that doesn't bother me
because I had that planned in my mind, I don't even look at it until next
spring.
Robert
Ramin Zahraie wrote:
>Neil, these are excellent points.
>
>It seems to me that these 'gambler indicators' are based on linear
>methods and these indicators are attempting to model a non-linear
>system.
>
>Having said that, I have looked into fields of non-linear dynamics,
>chaos and fractals. Unfortunately, I have been unable to establish any
>relationship between theories of these fields and dynamics of markets in
>general [shortcoming mine].
>
>Recently, I came across the works of Henry D.I. Abarbanel of Institute
>of Nonlinear Science in San Diego. Abarbanel has written a book titled
>"Analysis of Observed Chaotic Data." This book has a target audience of
>hard core academics and scientists in the fields of physics, mathematics
>and other related sciences.
>
>>From what I have seen and read of this book, it is conceivable that some
>of the concepts presented here can be applied to the markets. In one of
>the examples cited in this publication, Abarbanel attempts to forecast a
>chaotic time series. The time series presented is the volume of Great
>Salt Lake. As I look at the chart of this time series, it strongly
>resembles the closing price of any stock or commodity. Interestingly
>enough, Abarbanel's non-linear forecast, closely forecasts the Salt Lake
>volume up to 15 days in advance!
>
>As one can imagine, this book is filled with complex mathematics and
>formulas. Implementing the presented concepts in TradeStation or other
>TA programs, would be extremely difficult or perhaps even impossible.
>One of the key tools required for this kind of analysis is a k-d Tree
>data structure. Appearantly, Abrabanel tried to implement these
>techniques in Matlab but was unable to. He and his team wrote their own
>software.
>
>On a positve note, it appears that someone with trading interest, has at
>least attempted to incorporate some of these ideas into technical
>analysis.
>
>Please see:
>
>http://www.scifi.co.uk/contents.htm#CONTENTS
>
>I don't know if this was what Neil had in mind in regards to starting a
>discussion on non-gambling indicators, but perhaps it might be a step in
>the right direction.
>
>Rgrds
>
>RZ
>
>> 3. If #2 is false, please list some popular non-gambler indicators.
>>
>> 4. If #2 is true, please list some non-gambler indicators that work, or as
>> Allan said, "Is there information in the price series and other intermarket
>> information that can give short-term predictability?" (I thought this was
>> the objective of all indicator development).
>>
>> 5. Gambler indicators are all basically logically-based and easy to
>> calculate. The impression I have of non-gambler indicators is that they are
>> rocket science, not published, not generally available to the public, and
>> thus the private domain of a few rocket scientists. I consider myself
>> "smarter than your average bear", but not a rocket scientist, and currently
>> know of no indicators that I think the list would consider non-gambler
>> indicators.
>>
>
>
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