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Hi Bob:
Won't disagree that a test of the high is likely (at some point). In the
meantime, I will follow the tape and if i see a tradable low situation (one
with good odds of working and a well defined stop) I will go with it .
In the meantime, I see few signs of demand and no livable risk reward....
for daily, intremediate and long term players.
As far as the shorter term, got lucky and sold the three drives to a high
this morning and then got whipsawed a bit trying to enter longs (should
have left my stop looser)an hour or so ago.
Hope all is going well,
Stewart
At 12:59 PM 10/13/98 -0500, Robert W Cummings wrote:
>Well Stewart has a point about the liquidation phase but I think the trend
>long term is still up in bonds.
>One thing I'm looking at is another Fed cut and we got to many shorts in
>this market now because it turned over so fast. But looks like you can
>still sell any rally so far but at least its stop free falling.
>One thing always leads to another but 119 could be tested and I believe we
>seen the high at 135.08.
>I think it will creep up from here then have sharp breaks like today . Its
>still very prone to go down but thats how it acts before changing
>directions. One close on the high followed by some world bad news and where
>on our way to retest the old highs.
>
>Robert
>
>
>
>t 10:30 AM 10/13/98 -0700, James A Roush wrote:
>>
>>> Stewart, the chart may not look very good right now, but what about the
>>> fundamentals? As Robert pointed out, Fed rate cuts will be bullish, but
>>> here's two other things to consider. The federal government has gone from
>>> running $300+ billion annual deficits to de facto surpluses in just a few
>>> years. You can't just look at demand, you have to look at supply as well,
>>> and that's an enormous contraction in a short period of time. The other
>>
>>If the economy slows down as it is now forecasted, Federal tax revenues will
>>likely come up short. In making their forecast, the politicos in D.C. have
>>assumed that the business cycle is dead. It's not. Also there won't be the
>>capital gains tax money rolling in either. And don't forget the Japanese,
>>they could conceivably repatriate some of their money (sell Treasuries) to
>>shore up their battered system.
>>
>>Just my $.02 worth.
>>
>>
>>
>
>
Stewart Taylor
Taylor Fixed Income Outlook
Voice: 501-219-9774
Fax: 501-228-0963
E-Mail: staylor@xxxxxxx
Web Site: http://www.cei.net/~staylor/
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