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Hi Stewart;
Yes things are going okay just I bought puts at the highs and sold them to
soon in the bonds.
Thats why I'm talking them up I'm still pissed about it...........LOL. I
enjoyed your comments helps cool my irritation. See I can't trade bonds
again until I can be unemotional with them right now so I'm fooling with
the S&P.
Robert
Stewart Taylor wrote:
>Hi Bob:
>
>Won't disagree that a test of the high is likely (at some point). In the
>meantime, I will follow the tape and if i see a tradable low situation (one
>with good odds of working and a well defined stop) I will go with it .
>
>In the meantime, I see few signs of demand and no livable risk reward....
>for daily, intremediate and long term players.
>
>As far as the shorter term, got lucky and sold the three drives to a high
>this morning and then got whipsawed a bit trying to enter longs (should
>have left my stop looser)an hour or so ago.
>
>Hope all is going well,
>Stewart
>
>
>
>At 12:59 PM 10/13/98 -0500, Robert W Cummings wrote:
>>Well Stewart has a point about the liquidation phase but I think the trend
>>long term is still up in bonds.
>>One thing I'm looking at is another Fed cut and we got to many shorts in
>>this market now because it turned over so fast. But looks like you can
>>still sell any rally so far but at least its stop free falling.
>>One thing always leads to another but 119 could be tested and I believe we
>>seen the high at 135.08.
>>I think it will creep up from here then have sharp breaks like today . Its
>>still very prone to go down but thats how it acts before changing
>>directions. One close on the high followed by some world bad news and where
>>on our way to retest the old highs.
>>
>>Robert
>>
>>
>>
>>t 10:30 AM 10/13/98 -0700, James A Roush wrote:
>>>
>>>> Stewart, the chart may not look very good right now, but what about the
>>>> fundamentals? As Robert pointed out, Fed rate cuts will be bullish, but
>>>> here's two other things to consider. The federal government has gone
from
>>>> running $300+ billion annual deficits to de facto surpluses in just a few
>>>> years. You can't just look at demand, you have to look at supply as
well,
>>>> and that's an enormous contraction in a short period of time. The other
>>>
>>>If the economy slows down as it is now forecasted, Federal tax revenues
will
>>>likely come up short. In making their forecast, the politicos in D.C. have
>>>assumed that the business cycle is dead. It's not. Also there won't be
the
>>>capital gains tax money rolling in either. And don't forget the Japanese,
>>>they could conceivably repatriate some of their money (sell Treasuries) to
>>>shore up their battered system.
>>>
>>>Just my $.02 worth.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>
>>
>Stewart Taylor
>Taylor Fixed Income Outlook
>Voice: 501-219-9774
>Fax: 501-228-0963
>E-Mail: staylor@xxxxxxx
>Web Site: http://www.cei.net/~staylor/
>
>
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