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>Date: Wed, 23 Sep 1998 10:11:09 -0500
>From: markbrown@xxxxxxxxxxxxx (Mark Brown)
>To: "Alfredo Simas" <alfredo.simas@xxxxxxx>, <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
>Subject: Re: I want to purchase a TS: Summary
>Message-ID: <083f01bde704$655cade0$a473b5cc@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Content-Type: text/plain;
> charset="iso-8859-1"
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>It seems that you experienced traders don't believe in
>buying trading systems. It also seems that either you don't have a
>good trading system or you will not share it.
>
Hi guys, just thought I'd toss in my 2 cents worth..
I've spent many years studying the market with TS. I've tried literally
thousands of great ideas that DON'T WORK. Maybe I'm asking too much. The
goal is to find something robust, consistent, etc. that works across ALL
CONTRACTS going back to the beginning. (As far as I'm aware this was 1982
for the SPs??) There must be a large sample of trades, with a good
distribution of profits (doesn't depend on one grand slam trade). Signals
without an inherent up or down bias. An equity curve steadily ramping up
year after year.
Evidently there is a large random element, since practically nothing in the
Deterministic system arena will hold up under the light of backtesting.
I've long wondered if there is a way to treat things essentially as random,
flipping a coin for long or short. The essence of the system would then be
to manage the trade according to some clever profit/loss plan. Has anyone
tried such an approach? Is it viable? Is it patented?
Apparently there also is a very small deterministic element. Over the years
I've found just a couple of things that really do have a good statistical
probability. Toward this end the market will show you what to do, but only
if you ask the right questions. And the solution may not be something you
feel "comfortable" with, not the way you think trading should be. But the
market doesn't care about that. If you want some cool charts to look at,
here's my latest web spew: http://www.accessone.com/~logical/CPmain.htm
(sorry, haven't quite got the System Stats page together yet).
I think it's a shame the way TS (and markets in general) are presented.
People are given the impression that all they have to do is buy the
software, quit their job, use the pre-programmed systems and then day-trade
the dream. Of course using the built-in trailing stops helps!
CNBC is the worst. What possible purpose do they serve other than to create
confusion and uncertainty. Every time the market goes down it's
"profit-taking". Let's get real. How about "money-losing"? Meanwhile they
trot out this mornonic parade of "investment professionals" to supply us
with a never-ending stream of advise. The whole thing is just a gigantic
confidence game.
Here's an indication: Several years back there used to be a large group of
Omega users here in the Seattle area. There used to be regular meetings.
But as time went on the meetings got smaller and smaller. One by one people
would "stop trading". By now there hasn't been a meeting in a long time. I
sort of suspect most everybody washed out or otherwise abandoned the
effort. I'll bet a lot of people wish they could get their money back.
Thanks for the soap box..
Best regards,
Phil
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