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Neal wrote:
>Trading skills will serve you better than software.
Bug, I love you man, but you wrong on this one.
Trading "skills" are headed the way of the dinosaur. Open outcry is
history. Bid/ask spreads are history. The new breed will achieve success
by making technology work - by completely automating all interchanges
between cash and derivatives. Winners will automate market selection, trade
selection, risk management, vehicle selection and trade execution. In fact,
with the exception of execution, all of this is being done today. Want to
know who you're up against? It's not "who", it's "what". You are trading
today against machines that are doing all of the above.
Execution in the future won't be nearly the consideration that it is today -
technology will see to that. In fact, execution will be almost entirely
transparent. Knowing what you want done is the key.
I tell young traders: Work on your automation/systems. Don't buy mine.
Build your own. Know which way you want to trade - then automate
everything. Decide what you want the machine to do, and make it work for
you. When it becomes entirely machine against machine, the best programmer
wins.
All the best,
Omega Man (formerly Trader J)
-----Original Message-----
From: Neal T. Weintraub <thevindicator@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: Steven Buss <sbuss@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Monday, August 03, 1998 6:44 PM
Subject: Re: Trading as a way to financial success (a reply)
You know I have been called a basher. But I am not. All I want to bring to
this list before i leave is that trading skills are more important than
trading systems. Trading skills will serve you better than software. That is
all I am trying to do.l When I see the frustration level of traders with
their software i wonder how they can trade at all.
If you are thinking of buying or selling,you should know how to put that
same position on as a Spread or an Option and no how to protect yourself
against over-note moves. Even Mark Brown trhat famous Confederate General
sells calls against a futures position.
-----Original Message-----
From: Steven Buss <sbuss@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: Timothy Morge <tmorge@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: Neal T. Weintraub <thevindicator@xxxxxxxxxxx>; omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx
<omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Monday, August 03, 1998 11:54 AM
Subject: Re: Trading as a way to financial success (a reply)
>I can't quote Kase vertabim. But I think a concept from her book could add
>some light to this discussion.
>
>She argues that degree of account risk per trade and for any trading system
>is very much dependent on the price volatility of the specific timeframe
>bars one is trading. Assuming one has and implements money management
>techniques appropriate to the timeframe being traded one risks less trading
>30 minute bars than daily bars. This makes a great deal of sense to me.
>
>So, when a few folks state below that "there's no sense trading" with
>anything less than x dollars, I presume they have a particular trading
>timeframe in mind for which they believe x dollars is the equity one should
>have to trade the timeframe.
>
>If one were to trade a larger timeframe than they have in mind, the equity
>requirement would be higher. If one were to trade a smaller timeframe than
>they have in mind, the equity requirement would be lower.
>
>Isn't that right? If not, why do you think so?
>
>Steve Buss
>sbuss@xxxxxxxxxxx
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Timothy Morge <tmorge@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>To: xet73@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx <xet73@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Cc: Neal T. Weintraub <thevindicator@xxxxxxxxxxx>; cpbow@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
><cpbow@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>; omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
>Date: Monday, August 03, 1998 8:53 AM
>Subject: Re: Trading as a way to financial success (a reply)
>
>
>>Peter:
>>
>>Well, perhaps they should do some very basic investigation into the
>business of
>>trading. The more informed they are before they begin, the more likely
they
>are
>>to go bust. And by informed, not just informed about a system, a quote
>system or
>>how to tune their computer.
>>
>>The markets have been around for thousands of years. many people now think
>that
>>something has 'changed' because computers are here and there is an
>internet.
>>Many of these same people think the stock markets can grow to the sky,
>because
>>the 'fundamentals' of economies have now changed--and we'll never need or
>have
>>recessions again. These people are naive.
>>
>>Trading is trading is trading. Learn a good solid foundation, not today's
>fad.
>>
>>Tim Morge
>>
>>Peter Kiefer wrote:
>>>
>>> o.k. they should invest in your workshops --- right
>>>
>>> ----------
>>> > From: Neal T. Weintraub <thevindicator@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>>> > To: cpbow@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>> > Cc: omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx
>>> > Subject: Re: Trading as a way to financial success (a reply)
>>> > Date: 03 August 1998 16:00
>>> >
>>> > Thanks for your response.
>>> > I wish more people were this direct. People tend to think all they
need
>>> is
>>> > software and a system and they are on their way to Easy Street with
>Easy
>>> > Language. Hey, maybe that could be a new slogan...Easy Street with
Easy
>>> > Language.
>>> > You know when you consider that the Vanguard Funds are up nearly 100%
>in
>>> > three years, it is hard to understand why people even fall prey to
>>> commodex.
>>> > The Merc has a course called before you trade. But I can tell you
this.
>>> > Anyone with less than 20,000 in trading cash should not be in Futures.
>>> > Period. End of Story. I am tired of hearing about people saving
$7500,
>>> then
>>> > buying software for $3500 and using the balance to trade.
>>> > And anyone with more than $10,000 in credit card debt can never trader
>>> > themselves out of debt.
>>> > Take the $7500.00 and buy a vending route.
>>> > -----Original Message-----
>>> > From: Conrad Bowers <cpbow@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>>> > To: Neal T. Weintraub <thevindicator@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>>> > Cc: Omega List <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
>>> > Date: Sunday, August 02, 1998 3:23 PM
>>> > Subject: Trading as a way to financial success (a reply)
>>> >
>>> >
>>> > >Neal T. Weintraub wrote:
>>> > >>
>>> > >>
>>> > >> wHAT DO YOU THINK OF TRADING AS A WAY TO FINANCIAL SUCCESS.
>>> > >> PLEASE POST YOUR RESPONSE TO THE LIST.
>>> > >>
>>> > >
>>> > > For a minute I thought this was a joke (in light of my very recent
>>> > >post) but I believe it's not so here goes:
>>> > >
>>> > > I think you have to have a method that actually makes money and the
>>> > >capital to withstand the drawdowns that will occur before you
succeed.
>>> > >That makes it not a very good way to go for someone of limited means
>or
>>> > >anyone who is emotionally attached to money. The brochures that
say,
>>> > >we have a great system, and then show it on 20 commodities, often go
>on
>>> > >to say, "you can trade this on a more limited portfolio with $5000".
>>> > >Even tho they may have been honest in their testing, I believe the
>>> > >chances of the smaller portfolio having acceptable results is much
>>> > >lower. Primarily because the drawdown numbers for a smaller
portfolio
>>> > >will be more prone to being inaccurate or the portfolio "cherry
>picked".
>>> > >
>>> > > It's not the easy street it's made out to be either. Unless it's a
>>> > >small portion of your net worth and NOT your way of making a living,
>>> > >it's hard to see how it could not be anything but stressful to some
>>> > >degree.
>>> > >
>>> > > For many of us who have other careers, it can become a second job in
>>> > >itself, maybe even supplanting our original one. In effect my
>original
>>> > >goal to pay off some debts has become a goal to succeed in trading.
>And
>>> > >that goal has distracted me quite a bit from my first career. I can
>>> > >tell you why I don't like my current job, but was the transition to
>>> > >spending a lot of time on trading well thot out? Nope, it evolved.
>For
>>> > >those of us who seek to make a transition (or by default are making
>the
>>> > >transition) from our current career to trading as a means of making a
>>> > >living or being sucessful, maybe we should step back partway along
the
>>> > >way and ask, was this the right thing to do?
>>> > >Even if it was a means to $ sucess for an individual with another
>>> > >career, it might not be right for them. I guess everyone has to ask
>>> > >themselves what success is.
>>> > >
>>> > > Also I think your emotions have to favor you being in it. If you
>have
>>> > >conflicting feelings about it, it's less likely you will succeed.
>>> > >Recently, I built up my small account from about 3K to 6K, patiently
>>> > >grinding out small losses and a few larger wins in options and
>>> > >mini-contracts. But a number of emotionally charged issues have come
>>> > >up, at times introducing frustration, discouragement, and even guilt
>>> > >into my thoughts. After being rigorous (perhaps too much so) about
>>> > >kicking back options that werent' making money, I suddenly stopped
>>> > >looking at options i had altogether, same with most potential new
>>> > >positions. What was going on? The only thing I can think of, is
that
>>> > >my ambivilence about some of my decisions, including getting into
>>> > >trding, was being manifest by actions that might take me out of it.
>I
>>> > >used to scoff at some of the stuff in M. Douglas book about how you
>may
>>> > >defeat yourself - seemed crazy, why would anyone do that? But now, I
>>> > >think I've seen it in my own trading.
>>> > >
>>> > > In short then I think it is a way to financial success for a few
>people
>>> > >- The ones who either find a method and/or have the talent to
succeed
>>> > >in this field. It's a low-probability route for someone who does not
>>> > >have a fair amount of capital already. I think its a way to
financial
>>> > >success for someone who:
>>> > >
>>> > >1. has a positive expectation system or talent, and has confidence in
>>> > >it.
>>> > >
>>> > >2. has the capital to back that up.
>>> > >
>>> > >3. has a risk mgmt plan consisntent with 1+2.
>>> > >
>>> > >4. Doesn't have conflicting emotions about the money at risk; doesn't
>>> > >have conflicting emotions about other issues or people that are in
any
>>> > >way impacted by the decision to trade.
>>> > >
>>> > >
>>> > >What % of people in this crazy arena do you think have all 4? For
>those
>>> > >it's a good way to financial success. For the rest, nope.
>>
>
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