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Hi Martin,
I avoid the Gann debates because the people who like him defend him
vigorously. When I was looking at Gann's work, I read some history on
Gann to see where his work came from. Gann was fascinated with the
relationship between price and time. He liked geometry also so he
applied geometry to his study of time and price. The problem was he
also liked astrology and traveled the world studying it too. Some of
his favorite indicators came right out of Indian (country India)
astrology tools. He also used astrology in his study of the market
cycles.
Gann was reputed to be a legendary trader, yet there is little
historial evidence he did much trading. Other famous traders living
in the same era have documented evidence of their trading histories.
Gann was the "infomercial king" of his time. He sold educational
materials and did seminars on his trading methods. He charged $5000 a
person to attend. Most market historians believe it was the selling
of his trading methods that made him his money. Jesse Livermore was
the most successful trader in that era and he didn't use anything as
complex as Gann.
The last problem I have with Gann is no one has yet to prove that
over any long period of time his methods out perform buy and hold.
Here's a pitch from Lambert-Gann publishing. If this were true do you
think that the major banks on Wall Street would use anything else! I
have never found one bank using Gann. Nor have I found anyone who can
show that they are making an astounding 90% successful trades using
Gann. Everytime someone fails to make money with Gann, they are told
it's because they don't know how to use his methods properly. From
what I've been able to find out to this point I have concluded that
Gann was the only one who could use Gann methods successfully. You
will notice the advertisement doesn't say you will have 90%
successful trades. In fact, it doesn't even say you will make money.
"W.D. Gann was one of the greatest traders of all time. His ability
to call market turns was, and still is, legendary. His profitable
trades in the commodity and stock markets was an astounding 90%+!
His trading profits are estimated to be a staggering $50 million
dollars during the first half of the 20th century. Traders who have
studied his techniques have found great success in markets all over
the world."
That being said, I am a proponent of whatever works. If you can make
money with Gann, who cares if he heard voices and talked to himself.
Good Trading Martin
JO
--- In Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Martin Blain" <martin@xxxx>
wrote:
> JO
> You said it much more eloquently than me. Thank you.
> Just to stick up for Gann a little and to continue the smoke
analogy. Gann
> was quite a mathematician. The star alignment thing may have been
smoke and
> mirrors!
> Regards Martin
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "manohohman" <kelols@xxxx>
> To: <Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: November 22, 2003 11:11 PM
> Subject: [Metastockusers] Re: Martin B and Ariel on Whinning
>
>
> > Your post is interesting and it's a view point I hear often. I
have
> > traded stocks using both fundemental analysis and technical
analysis.
> > I find a combination is the best way to make money in the long
run.
> >
> > The approach a successful trader takes is to design his trading
> > business around his personality and emotinoal make-up as opposed
to
> > designing it based on what's most profitable or the "best"
> > indicators. I see that post on this site all the time usually in
form
> > of the lame question. "Let's do a poll and find out what
everybody's
> > favorite indicators are". That's a ridiculous question. It's like
> > trying to decide what color to wear based on everybody else's
> > favorite color.
> >
> > I have not met a single person who could not learn to improve the
> > return on their investments by using simple moving averages so
they
> > know when to buy and when to sell. That's TA.
> >
> > The thing that's really interesting is that there are very few
> > systems that beat moving averages. According to Robert Colby the
> > author of The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, the
bible
> > of backtesting, a simple moving average system out performed by
and
> > hold since 1928 by 51,712,052% Yeah, it's 52 million percent
better
> > than buy and hold. That's 10s of billions more in profit with a
> > capital B. Of course that doesn't include taxes, commissions and
rake
> > off by crooks. After that, you would only have $1.98 left, but
hey,
> > it's money.
> >
> > Too many people like to make things complex. Just look at Gann
> > theory. Gann based his work on Indian astrology and star
alignment,
> > yet there are thousands of people who think trading with Gann
gives
> > them an edge. Well, you could call Miss Cleo on the psychic
hotline
> > and get better stock picks. Random Walk theory has taught us
> > that. "But Gann is so complicated, it must work." Yeah, it does,
and
> > it slices, dices and cuts julian fries too.
> >
> > You are right that a person doesn't have to know how to program a
> > thing in MS to make money. None of the sytems I use require one
line
> > of code--not one. I've automated some processes for convience, but
> > after testing over 500 indicators and more than 200 experts
nothing
> > has beat the simple stuff I use. I'm finishing up the testing of
many
> > formulas from Colby's book and still nothing is performing better.
> >
> > However, I disagree about reading the manual. You don't have to
sit
> > down and read it front to back but you need to learn to use your
> > tools. A lot of people won't lift a finger to educate themselves.
> > They think it should all be handed to them on a platter. Ariel
got it
> > right. If they won't read the manual they have no business trying
to
> > trade for a living. The highest probability is they're going to
lose
> > their capital and it's back to 7-11.
> >
> > Some people are lucky in that trading success has nothing to do
with
> > brains. That's been proven over and over, but it does have a lot
to
> > do with laziness. Intellectually lazy people fail at this
business. I
> > didn't say IQ was the issue. I said how much you are willing to
use
> > the IQ you have is the issue. I have made suggestions to people
> > regarding what books to read. They read them, and then I have to
> > explain it to them three or four times, they read the book again,
I
> > explain it again, and the next thing you know they're making
money.
> > What a surprise! Am I upset I have to repeat my explanations more
> > than once. No, because they're doing their part.
> >
> > Of course, I recommend the same material to other people who never
> > read it, continue to ask the same questions everyday and can't
> > understand why their capital account is shrinking. I've got a
couple
> > of clues.
> >
> > Ariel gave some of the best trading advice I've read on here. It's
> > too bad more people don't get it.
> >
> > Now that being said, I started in TA 30 years ago writing computer
> > programs for finance professors who were looking for the grail.
They
> > thought computers were going to do it for them. Then came complex
> > geometry, neural nets, chaos theory and fractals. Oh well, those
> > moving averages aren't looking for a place to hide. They know who
> > will still be around next year.
> >
> > You are right also in that some people are trying to predict the
> > direction of the smoke. I use the smoke to keep me out of the
fire. I
> > can read it well enough to do that. I can also tell where not to
> > stand to keep from choking.
> >
> > That has made me more money than all of my finance professors put
> > together, and that's good enough for me.
> >
> > If you can see what's right in front of you, you are one of the
few.
> > I hope you are using that to your advantage. Some people are too
lazy
> > to clean their glasses so they too can see.
> >
> > Whatever works! I think that's what you said. Good post.
> >
> > JO
> >
> >
> > --- In Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Martin Blain"
<martin@xxxx>
> > wrote:
> > > If I can weigh in again here. Does all the quantifying of
trading
> > stocks really pay off?
> > > I compare it to analyzing a plume of smoke and saying " well if
> > this happens then I will do this and if that doesn't work I will
bail
> > out here. The hardest part of this ( and maybe the easiest to a
> > person smarter than me) is to explain why you cant quantify
something
> > that is basically random. Now don't get me wrong I didn't say you
> > cant use TA. I just don't believe that you can use the systems in
> > MS. All this code and crap is just "something to aspire to" all
the
> > while the information is right in front of you if you can see
it. So
> > if you don't need the crap built in than don't waste your time
> > reading the manual!
> > > Regards Martin B
> > >
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: Ariel Devulsky
> > > To: Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Sent: November 22, 2003 3:10 PM
> > > Subject: Re: [Metastockusers] Re: Group benefits and Whining
> > >
> > >
> > > Why not send the rules list or create rules and send to new
> > menbers?
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Read The Fuckinī Manual!
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: manohohman
> > > To: Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Sent: Saturday, November 22, 2003 3:40 PM
> > > Subject: [Metastockusers] Re: Group benefits and Whining
> > >
> > >
> > > Kevin, I agree completely with Martin's post. On this site
and
> > the
> > > other Metastock site there are too many people who won't
bother
> > to
> > > look in the manual or use the help screen and it's not
because
> > they
> > > don't think to do it, they just don't want to "think"
period.
> > >
> > > In addition, a lot of people think everything should
be "free"
> > and if
> > > it's not, they'll try to find some place to steal it from.
> > These
> > > people want to be "traders". If you're willing to lose your
> > capital
> > > account but spend nothing on your education, you're not a
> > trader,
> > > you're a moron.
> > >
> > > I post on this and the other site constantly. I get a lot of
> > email
> > > wanting questions answered, or my entire trading system, or
> > help
> > > learning to trade, or emails that are filled with general
> > insults.
> > >
> > > They all want "free" help, but the help isn't free. It
costs me
> > a lot
> > > of time and my time is valuable. Ninety percent of the
people
> > who are
> > > asking me for stuff don't treat my time like it's valuable.
In
> > fact,
> > > if I tell them in a polite way that I can't help them learn
to
> > trade,
> > > or I'm not going to give away my systems unless they have
> > something
> > > to share, I usually get a terse response implying something
> > nasty
> > > about my character.
> > >
> > > Many of the emails I receive act as if they have a right to
> > answers
> > > because this is a MS support group. That's BS. Kevin, you
are
> > right,
> > > no one has to answer any body's question. I've made the
mistake
> > of
> > > answering some that I should have skipped, and I wound up
> > paying for
> > > it.
> > >
> > > I would appreciate it if you would do what I've been doing.
> > Start
> > > posting all kinds of references, indicator code, systems
code,
> > > answering people's programming problems, etc. and then
you'll
> > get to
> > > see what I've been seeing everyday, and you won't like it.
> > >
> > > Martin may not have been eloquent, but he was right.
Newbie's
> > get
> > > pissed off when I, or someone else, tell them to read the
> > manual or
> > > use the help screen. They fire back a nasty email saying
they
> > tried
> > > to read the manual but what they want to know is not in
there.
> > Huffy,
> > > huffy, huffy. In addition to my career, I spent 30 years as
a
> > college
> > > professor at 4 different universities. In the last ten
years,
> > I've
> > > seen the same thing. Students don't want to bother reading
> > anything,
> > > or researching to find their own answers. I'm suppose to
tell
> > them
> > > everything they need to know, and I should never ask them a
> > question
> > > on an exam I didn't tell them the answer too! Well here's an
> > answer.
> > > Get off your lazy ass, put your brain in gear, or learn to
> > say "Would
> > > you like that supersized," sir?
> > >
> > > I wonder how these people think I learned to program, or
where
> > all
> > > the references I post come from. I guess I just woke up with
> > them on
> > > my pillow. I worked 17 hours yesterday. Six hours trading,
and
> > eleven
> > > hours testing equations I found in reference books. In a few
> > days
> > > I'll get tons of requests wanting me to tell them what I
found
> > so
> > > they don't have to spend 11 hours themselves. Some of what I
> > learned
> > > I might share, and some of it I won't. Whatever I choose to
> > share is
> > > a gift.
> > >
> > > Sure there are some great people on here, and on the other
> > board. I
> > > correspond with some of them. We exchange ideas, code and
> > systems. WE
> > > EXCHANGE!
> > >
> > > Everytime I've asked anyone on here to share their systems
or
> > code,
> > > even if it isn't good, they decline. Surprise, surprise,
> > surprise.
> > > Their work is too important, or secret, to share.
> > >
> > > I've done a number of postings lately trying to elevate the
> > amount of
> > > discussion, references, sharing, and exchanging that goes
on on
> > this
> > > board, and the other one, so the board is not merely a forum
> > for
> > > people who can't read.
> > >
> > > There has been a slight increase in the amount of sharing
but
> > it's
> > > not nearly where it should be.
> > >
> > > I'll keep posting as long as I feel I have the time and
energy,
> > but
> > > I'm also going to speak my mind about some of the garbage
that
> > goes
> > > on. It mostly falls on deaf years I know, but that's okay
> > because
> > > I've given away enough that once in-a-while I get to whine.
> > >
> > > JO
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > --- In Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Kevin
<kevin_barry@xxxx>
> > wrote:
> > > > Hello Martin,
> > > >
> > > > I think that your posting is a little unfair. I am not
sure
> > if you
> > > are
> > > > referring to any group members in particular but I must
say
> > that no
> > > > postings on this forum in recent times have evoked
anything
> > close
> > > to a
> > > > similar reaction in me. Sure, there are often questions
> > posted that
> > > could
> > > > be answered by looking in the respective manual but, in my
> > > experience, not
> > > > everybody automatically thinks of doing that. Indeed, the
> > > apparently
> > > > obvious questions are sometimes quite thought-provoking
and,
> > > personally
> > > > speaking, I have got answers here to questions that I
would
> > never
> > > even have
> > > > thought of asking.
> > > >
> > > > There is no obligation to respond to any posting and the
> > nature of
> > > the post
> > > > is more often than not pretty obvious immediately. So, if
it
> > is
> > > going to be
> > > > an irritation to you, why not just delete it immediately?
> > What
> > > impresses me
> > > > are the regular contributors who are quick to respond to
> > pleas for
> > > help,
> > > > however simple or stupid, and are extremely generous with
> > their
> > > knowledge
> > > > and experience. Without the questions, the rest of us
might
> > never
> > > get to
> > > > hear these guys speak.
> > > >
> > > > I also get the impression that you are a little
contemptuous
> > of
> > > people who
> > > > seem to be asking for something for nothing. Personally,
I am
> > in
> > > complete
> > > > agreement with what I think that you are saying, i.e. if
one
> > uses
> > > tools in
> > > > order to make money then those tools should be paid for.
> > However,
> > > you may
> > > > not realise that, in addition to people who trade
> > professionally or
> > > > part-time, there are many people who are attracted to the
> > idea of
> > > trading
> > > > and enjoy associating with the trading community, hobby-
> > traders if
> > > you
> > > > like, who do not actually trade. There is a chap who
attends
> > my
> > > investment
> > > > club meetings who has an in-depth knowledge of the market
and
> > is an
> > > expert
> > > > in several trading techniques. He occasionally lectures on
> > various
> > > subjects
> > > > and he is actually pretty good at it. He has never placed
a
> > trade
> > > in his
> > > > life. Do I begrudge him collecting a bit of free software,
> > > downloading free
> > > > end-of-day prices and playing around with them in his
spare
> > time?
> > > No. As
> > > > far as I can see, people like him are doing none of us any
> > harm
> > > whatsoever.
> > > >
> > > > A forum such as this needs lots of input at all levels in
> > order to
> > > stay
> > > > alive. I sincerely hope that nobody is ever reluctant to
post
> > > because they
> > > > think that their contribution may not be worthy.
> > > >
> > > > Viva la difference.
> > > >
> > > > Regards,
> > > > Kevin
> > > >
> > > > At 12:29 22/11/2003 +0000, you wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > >Hi folks,
> > > > >
> > > > >in my opinion to share is just fair. Everyone that is a
> > member of
> > > > >this group should try to contribute to the benefits of
the
> > whole
> > > > >group, not just ask (simple and stupid stuff) and take.
This
> > doen't
> > > > >not mean that a newbie shouldn't post his or her
questions.
> > But
> > > what
> > > > >about first trying to solve the problem by yourself and
show
> > the
> > > > >group the results of this effort and then ask the
question.
> > > > >
> > > > >But now FREE - for all of you not wanting to share and
just
> > begging
> > > > >for 'free stuff':
> > > > >
> > > > >John Slauson from Adaptick is giving away for free
> > > > >
> > > > >Adaptick Trend Index
> > > > >Adaptick Pivot Volume indicator
> > > > >Adaptick Volume Acceleration Index
> > > > >17-page Adobe PDF Manual for reference and intepretation
> > > > >
> > > > >http://www.adaptick.com/3-pack/index.html
> > > > >
> > > > >pretty useful and - did I mention it - free (you dont
have to
> > > > >contribute ;-)!
> > > > >
> > > > >Martin
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > >Metastockusers-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
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> > >
> > >
> > >
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> > >
> > >
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