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Hi Adam
COT is important. It is basically volume and volume is important in any form
of Tech Analysis.
Problems arise when traders rely on bi-weekly COT ... COT can be collected
daily and I prefer daily volume over bi-weekly volume.
Small guys like us are not going to move the market. The funds will.
Personally, I want to know what the funds are doing all the time. I want to
know what their volume is every day and hopefully some idea as to why.
Other forms of useful analysis besides technical anlaysis include
fundamental, statistical, historical, and insider, etc.
Whether or not money management and trade management will save our butts ...
contrary to accepted wisdom on the List ... I wouldn't count on it.
Best regards
Walter
----- Original Message -----
From: "Adam Hefner" <vonhef@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, April 21, 2000 1:22 PM
Subject: Re: (Market) Jul Corn
| Walter,
| I think you are missing my point. I am testing the
| workings of my mechanical parts, and as you mentioned
| "Technical Analysis alone is NOT enough" ....but using
| the "Commitment Of Traders" is listed as a tool to use
| in John Murphy's books ( also goes along Charles
| Drummond, and many others...) You may not call this
| TA, but is this not using fundamentals in a technical way?
| Yes the trade I listed was price/pattern
| only generated, and yes it was wrong, but what system
| gives a 100% correct signals? You may be right about
| TA not being enough...but there are some who disagree.
| I am undecided on the issue. I do think the COT is a
| valuable tool and may incorporate into my decisions,
| but this Drummond stuff is supposed to be good enough
| to correct itself into the right direction quickly....that is
| what I am testing. If this basic system proves good enough
| to build on...then I can add the other decision filters
| to the process.
|
| You Wrote: "You're too good of an analyst and too
| patient and persistent in your system development to
| use a "hold your nose and jump" trading approach."
|
| Thank you for the compliment ...and you should know
| I TRULY value your opinions and advice.
| Some of these signals generate a historically high (non optimized)
| rate of good entry, If this is true...shouldn't good
| Money Management and proper monitoring of the
| trades result in an over-all success?
|
| Adam
|
|
| ----- Original Message -----
| From: "Walter Lake" <wlake@xxxxxxxxx>
| To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
| Sent: Friday, April 21, 2000 7:19 AM
| Subject: Re: (Market) Jul Corn
|
|
| > Hi Adam
| >
| > No problem.
| >
| > I guess corn gave us an answer about direction yesterday. Lots of rain
| > happens and K & N only go down a penny. So much for a "weather" market
...
| > there's some really stubborn longs out there ... only 1400 contracts
were
| > liquidated.
| >
| > Technical Analysis alone is NOT enough. The grain complex is really a
very
| > thin market compared to most of the stocks that Metastockers look
at/scan.
| > Compare the open interest for corn with the average float of regularly
| > traded stocks. Secondly, most of the players know grains and every
aspect
| of
| > why things move.
| >
| > Here's an example of historical seasonals that you can "crank up" in
Excel
| >
| > http://www.cs-grainmarketconsulting.com/
| >
| > Re Al's advice ... I think that you were wiser in first place to be
| > indecisive and hesitant until you know more. There are safer and more
risk
| > controlled ways to test out your market analysis and technical analysis.
| Use
| > options or use spreads. There's more to learn using those approaches but
| at
| > least you approach the markets as a business rather than as a source of
| > excitement or as "after diner conversation".
| >
| > You're too good of an analyst and too patient and persistent in your
| system
| > development to use a "hold your nose and jump" trading approach.
| >
| > Leave the naked contracts to newbies or "wannabe gurus". Sticking your
| neck
| > out can get it chopped.
| >
| > Best regards as always
| >
| > Walter
| >
| > ----- Original Message -----
| > From: "Adam Hefner" <vonhef@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
| > To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
| > Sent: Thursday, April 20, 2000 9:55 PM
| > Subject: Re: (Market) Jul Corn
| >
| >
| > | Walter,
| > | I really appreciate your warnings of "Big Boys" buying
| corn
| > | when I am selling. First let me explain to the list of where I am and
| > | why I am posting these charts. EVERYONE PLEASE READ THIS!
| > | These signals are just me testing a trading method...I am NOT a pro
| > | trader. My signals can be (and probably are) wrong. I am learning
| > | the mechanics of trade and simulating as real as possible the risk of
| > | being wrong by making these decisions public (keeps me honest).
| > | When Al Taglavore was kind enough to offer a bit of advice on
| > | my hesitation to make trade decisions, I decided to "Stick My Neck"
| > | out with a signal, it turned out to be a failed signal, but I
recovered
| > | from it with little loss (this time). Perhaps I need to incorporate
the
| > | COT reports into my method....but for now I want to smooth out
| > | the mechanical techniques of my basic system before I add or adjust
| > | to it. Actually this basic system will let me know quickly if a signal
| is
| > | right or wrong, I am just perfecting the methods of damage control,
| > | after all its easy to trade if things go as planned. <g>
| > |
| > | Adam
| > |
| > |
| > | ----- Original Message -----
| > | From: "Walter Lake" <wlake@xxxxxxxxx>
| > | To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
| > | Sent: Thursday, April 20, 2000 9:35 AM
| > | Subject: Re: (Market) Jul Corn
| > |
| > |
| > | > Hi Adam and Steve
| > | >
| > | > So what's going to move the market down?
| > | >
| > | > weather? -
| > | > demand? -
| > | > supply? -
| > | >
| > | > If liquidation starts, you've got 93,000+ longs that are going to
need
| > to
| > | be
| > | > "flushed".
| > | >
| > | > So why are the funds sitting with such a huge long position? Why are
| > they
| > | > still buying ... 4,000 yesterday?
| > | >
| > | > Best regards
| > | >
| > | > Walter
| > | >
| > | > ----- Original Message -----
| > | > From: Adam Hefner
| > | > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
| > | > Sent: Thursday, April 20, 2000 12:38 AM
| > | > Subject: Re: (Market) Jul Corn
| > | >
| > | >
| > | > Steve,
| > | > I Sell at a close above 237.75 (I think that is what you
mean)
| > | > really plays along with the rules of the current
| > | > market condition (congestion). I would have normally called a signal
| > along
| > | > these lines, but was torn between this
| > | > congestion action trading and the break-out signal on the 17th.
Always
| > | enjoy
| > | > your market signals.
| > | >
| > | > Adam
| > | >
| > | > ----- Original Message -----
| > | > From: Steve Karnish
| > | > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
| > | > Sent: Wednesday, April 19, 2000 8:27 PM
| > | > Subject: Re: (Market) Jul Corn
| > | >
| > | >
| > | > Adam,
| > | >
| > | > Although all the "troops" are in May, I would be a seller of July on
a
| > | close
| > | > above 287.75. Also, take a hard look at the wheat/corn spread
(basis
| > | July)
| > | > under 30 cents. It has a bunch of potential. I put a bunch on at
| 27.25
| > | > today. Could be a big "wiener".
| > | >
| > | > Take care,
| > | >
| > | > Steve Karnish
| > | > Cedar Creek Trading
| > | > http://www.cedarcreektrading.com
| > | >
| > | >
| > | > ----- Original Message -----
| > | > From: Adam Hefner
| > | > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
| > | > Sent: Wednesday, April 19, 2000 3:34 PM
| > | > Subject: (Market) Jul Corn
| > | >
| > | >
| > | >
| > | > Since corn has reversed back up and remaining in the congestion area
I
| > | will
| > | > exit the corn sell signal tomorrow with a MIT
| > | > at 235.1 (provided that is hit before my buy stop at 239.5). Not
sure
| > this
| > | > is the best way to handle it but if my MIT is hit
| > | > I will take a little .05 cent loss, if my stop is hit..a 5 cent
loss.
| > | > Comments anyone?
| > | > Adam
| > | >
| > | >
| > |
| >
| >
|
|