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Walter,
I think you are missing my point. I am testing the
workings of my mechanical parts, and as you mentioned
"Technical Analysis alone is NOT enough" ....but using
the "Commitment Of Traders" is listed as a tool to use
in John Murphy's books ( also goes along Charles
Drummond, and many others...) You may not call this
TA, but is this not using fundamentals in a technical way?
Yes the trade I listed was price/pattern
only generated, and yes it was wrong, but what system
gives a 100% correct signals? You may be right about
TA not being enough...but there are some who disagree.
I am undecided on the issue. I do think the COT is a
valuable tool and may incorporate into my decisions,
but this Drummond stuff is supposed to be good enough
to correct itself into the right direction quickly....that is
what I am testing. If this basic system proves good enough
to build on...then I can add the other decision filters
to the process.
You Wrote: "You're too good of an analyst and too
patient and persistent in your system development to
use a "hold your nose and jump" trading approach."
Thank you for the compliment ...and you should know
I TRULY value your opinions and advice.
Some of these signals generate a historically high (non optimized)
rate of good entry, If this is true...shouldn't good
Money Management and proper monitoring of the
trades result in an over-all success?
Adam
----- Original Message -----
From: "Walter Lake" <wlake@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, April 21, 2000 7:19 AM
Subject: Re: (Market) Jul Corn
> Hi Adam
>
> No problem.
>
> I guess corn gave us an answer about direction yesterday. Lots of rain
> happens and K & N only go down a penny. So much for a "weather" market ...
> there's some really stubborn longs out there ... only 1400 contracts were
> liquidated.
>
> Technical Analysis alone is NOT enough. The grain complex is really a very
> thin market compared to most of the stocks that Metastockers look at/scan.
> Compare the open interest for corn with the average float of regularly
> traded stocks. Secondly, most of the players know grains and every aspect
of
> why things move.
>
> Here's an example of historical seasonals that you can "crank up" in Excel
>
> http://www.cs-grainmarketconsulting.com/
>
> Re Al's advice ... I think that you were wiser in first place to be
> indecisive and hesitant until you know more. There are safer and more risk
> controlled ways to test out your market analysis and technical analysis.
Use
> options or use spreads. There's more to learn using those approaches but
at
> least you approach the markets as a business rather than as a source of
> excitement or as "after diner conversation".
>
> You're too good of an analyst and too patient and persistent in your
system
> development to use a "hold your nose and jump" trading approach.
>
> Leave the naked contracts to newbies or "wannabe gurus". Sticking your
neck
> out can get it chopped.
>
> Best regards as always
>
> Walter
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Adam Hefner" <vonhef@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Thursday, April 20, 2000 9:55 PM
> Subject: Re: (Market) Jul Corn
>
>
> | Walter,
> | I really appreciate your warnings of "Big Boys" buying
corn
> | when I am selling. First let me explain to the list of where I am and
> | why I am posting these charts. EVERYONE PLEASE READ THIS!
> | These signals are just me testing a trading method...I am NOT a pro
> | trader. My signals can be (and probably are) wrong. I am learning
> | the mechanics of trade and simulating as real as possible the risk of
> | being wrong by making these decisions public (keeps me honest).
> | When Al Taglavore was kind enough to offer a bit of advice on
> | my hesitation to make trade decisions, I decided to "Stick My Neck"
> | out with a signal, it turned out to be a failed signal, but I recovered
> | from it with little loss (this time). Perhaps I need to incorporate the
> | COT reports into my method....but for now I want to smooth out
> | the mechanical techniques of my basic system before I add or adjust
> | to it. Actually this basic system will let me know quickly if a signal
is
> | right or wrong, I am just perfecting the methods of damage control,
> | after all its easy to trade if things go as planned. <g>
> |
> | Adam
> |
> |
> | ----- Original Message -----
> | From: "Walter Lake" <wlake@xxxxxxxxx>
> | To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> | Sent: Thursday, April 20, 2000 9:35 AM
> | Subject: Re: (Market) Jul Corn
> |
> |
> | > Hi Adam and Steve
> | >
> | > So what's going to move the market down?
> | >
> | > weather? -
> | > demand? -
> | > supply? -
> | >
> | > If liquidation starts, you've got 93,000+ longs that are going to need
> to
> | be
> | > "flushed".
> | >
> | > So why are the funds sitting with such a huge long position? Why are
> they
> | > still buying ... 4,000 yesterday?
> | >
> | > Best regards
> | >
> | > Walter
> | >
> | > ----- Original Message -----
> | > From: Adam Hefner
> | > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> | > Sent: Thursday, April 20, 2000 12:38 AM
> | > Subject: Re: (Market) Jul Corn
> | >
> | >
> | > Steve,
> | > I Sell at a close above 237.75 (I think that is what you mean)
> | > really plays along with the rules of the current
> | > market condition (congestion). I would have normally called a signal
> along
> | > these lines, but was torn between this
> | > congestion action trading and the break-out signal on the 17th. Always
> | enjoy
> | > your market signals.
> | >
> | > Adam
> | >
> | > ----- Original Message -----
> | > From: Steve Karnish
> | > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> | > Sent: Wednesday, April 19, 2000 8:27 PM
> | > Subject: Re: (Market) Jul Corn
> | >
> | >
> | > Adam,
> | >
> | > Although all the "troops" are in May, I would be a seller of July on a
> | close
> | > above 287.75. Also, take a hard look at the wheat/corn spread (basis
> | July)
> | > under 30 cents. It has a bunch of potential. I put a bunch on at
27.25
> | > today. Could be a big "wiener".
> | >
> | > Take care,
> | >
> | > Steve Karnish
> | > Cedar Creek Trading
> | > http://www.cedarcreektrading.com
> | >
> | >
> | > ----- Original Message -----
> | > From: Adam Hefner
> | > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> | > Sent: Wednesday, April 19, 2000 3:34 PM
> | > Subject: (Market) Jul Corn
> | >
> | >
> | >
> | > Since corn has reversed back up and remaining in the congestion area I
> | will
> | > exit the corn sell signal tomorrow with a MIT
> | > at 235.1 (provided that is hit before my buy stop at 239.5). Not sure
> this
> | > is the best way to handle it but if my MIT is hit
> | > I will take a little .05 cent loss, if my stop is hit..a 5 cent loss.
> | > Comments anyone?
> | > Adam
> | >
> | >
> |
>
>
|