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Walter, how can you collect daily COT data? Could you mention a source
please?
Thanks,
Ed Montero
----- Original Message -----
From: Walter Lake <wlake@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, April 21, 2000 2:43 PM
Subject: Re: (Market) Jul Corn
>
> Hi Adam
>
> COT is important. It is basically volume and volume is important in any
form
> of Tech Analysis.
>
> Problems arise when traders rely on bi-weekly COT ... COT can be
collected
> daily and I prefer daily volume over bi-weekly volume.
>
> Small guys like us are not going to move the market. The funds will.
> Personally, I want to know what the funds are doing all the time. I want
to
> know what their volume is every day and hopefully some idea as to why.
>
> Other forms of useful analysis besides technical anlaysis include
> fundamental, statistical, historical, and insider, etc.
>
> Whether or not money management and trade management will save our butts
...
> contrary to accepted wisdom on the List ... I wouldn't count on it.
>
> Best regards
>
> Walter
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Adam Hefner" <vonhef@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Friday, April 21, 2000 1:22 PM
> Subject: Re: (Market) Jul Corn
>
>
> | Walter,
> | I think you are missing my point. I am testing the
> | workings of my mechanical parts, and as you mentioned
> | "Technical Analysis alone is NOT enough" ....but using
> | the "Commitment Of Traders" is listed as a tool to use
> | in John Murphy's books ( also goes along Charles
> | Drummond, and many others...) You may not call this
> | TA, but is this not using fundamentals in a technical way?
> | Yes the trade I listed was price/pattern
> | only generated, and yes it was wrong, but what system
> | gives a 100% correct signals? You may be right about
> | TA not being enough...but there are some who disagree.
> | I am undecided on the issue. I do think the COT is a
> | valuable tool and may incorporate into my decisions,
> | but this Drummond stuff is supposed to be good enough
> | to correct itself into the right direction quickly....that is
> | what I am testing. If this basic system proves good enough
> | to build on...then I can add the other decision filters
> | to the process.
> |
> | You Wrote: "You're too good of an analyst and too
> | patient and persistent in your system development to
> | use a "hold your nose and jump" trading approach."
> |
> | Thank you for the compliment ...and you should know
> | I TRULY value your opinions and advice.
> | Some of these signals generate a historically high (non optimized)
> | rate of good entry, If this is true...shouldn't good
> | Money Management and proper monitoring of the
> | trades result in an over-all success?
> |
> | Adam
> |
> |
> | ----- Original Message -----
> | From: "Walter Lake" <wlake@xxxxxxxxx>
> | To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> | Sent: Friday, April 21, 2000 7:19 AM
> | Subject: Re: (Market) Jul Corn
> |
> |
> | > Hi Adam
> | >
> | > No problem.
> | >
> | > I guess corn gave us an answer about direction yesterday. Lots of rain
> | > happens and K & N only go down a penny. So much for a "weather" market
> ...
> | > there's some really stubborn longs out there ... only 1400 contracts
> were
> | > liquidated.
> | >
> | > Technical Analysis alone is NOT enough. The grain complex is really a
> very
> | > thin market compared to most of the stocks that Metastockers look
> at/scan.
> | > Compare the open interest for corn with the average float of regularly
> | > traded stocks. Secondly, most of the players know grains and every
> aspect
> | of
> | > why things move.
> | >
> | > Here's an example of historical seasonals that you can "crank up" in
> Excel
> | >
> | > http://www.cs-grainmarketconsulting.com/
> | >
> | > Re Al's advice ... I think that you were wiser in first place to be
> | > indecisive and hesitant until you know more. There are safer and more
> risk
> | > controlled ways to test out your market analysis and technical
analysis.
> | Use
> | > options or use spreads. There's more to learn using those approaches
but
> | at
> | > least you approach the markets as a business rather than as a source
of
> | > excitement or as "after diner conversation".
> | >
> | > You're too good of an analyst and too patient and persistent in your
> | system
> | > development to use a "hold your nose and jump" trading approach.
> | >
> | > Leave the naked contracts to newbies or "wannabe gurus". Sticking your
> | neck
> | > out can get it chopped.
> | >
> | > Best regards as always
> | >
> | > Walter
> | >
> | > ----- Original Message -----
> | > From: "Adam Hefner" <vonhef@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> | > To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> | > Sent: Thursday, April 20, 2000 9:55 PM
> | > Subject: Re: (Market) Jul Corn
> | >
> | >
> | > | Walter,
> | > | I really appreciate your warnings of "Big Boys" buying
> | corn
> | > | when I am selling. First let me explain to the list of where I am
and
> | > | why I am posting these charts. EVERYONE PLEASE READ THIS!
> | > | These signals are just me testing a trading method...I am NOT a pro
> | > | trader. My signals can be (and probably are) wrong. I am learning
> | > | the mechanics of trade and simulating as real as possible the risk
of
> | > | being wrong by making these decisions public (keeps me honest).
> | > | When Al Taglavore was kind enough to offer a bit of advice on
> | > | my hesitation to make trade decisions, I decided to "Stick My Neck"
> | > | out with a signal, it turned out to be a failed signal, but I
> recovered
> | > | from it with little loss (this time). Perhaps I need to incorporate
> the
> | > | COT reports into my method....but for now I want to smooth out
> | > | the mechanical techniques of my basic system before I add or adjust
> | > | to it. Actually this basic system will let me know quickly if a
signal
> | is
> | > | right or wrong, I am just perfecting the methods of damage control,
> | > | after all its easy to trade if things go as planned. <g>
> | > |
> | > | Adam
> | > |
> | > |
> | > | ----- Original Message -----
> | > | From: "Walter Lake" <wlake@xxxxxxxxx>
> | > | To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> | > | Sent: Thursday, April 20, 2000 9:35 AM
> | > | Subject: Re: (Market) Jul Corn
> | > |
> | > |
> | > | > Hi Adam and Steve
> | > | >
> | > | > So what's going to move the market down?
> | > | >
> | > | > weather? -
> | > | > demand? -
> | > | > supply? -
> | > | >
> | > | > If liquidation starts, you've got 93,000+ longs that are going to
> need
> | > to
> | > | be
> | > | > "flushed".
> | > | >
> | > | > So why are the funds sitting with such a huge long position? Why
are
> | > they
> | > | > still buying ... 4,000 yesterday?
> | > | >
> | > | > Best regards
> | > | >
> | > | > Walter
> | > | >
> | > | > ----- Original Message -----
> | > | > From: Adam Hefner
> | > | > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> | > | > Sent: Thursday, April 20, 2000 12:38 AM
> | > | > Subject: Re: (Market) Jul Corn
> | > | >
> | > | >
> | > | > Steve,
> | > | > I Sell at a close above 237.75 (I think that is what you
> mean)
> | > | > really plays along with the rules of the current
> | > | > market condition (congestion). I would have normally called a
signal
> | > along
> | > | > these lines, but was torn between this
> | > | > congestion action trading and the break-out signal on the 17th.
> Always
> | > | enjoy
> | > | > your market signals.
> | > | >
> | > | > Adam
> | > | >
> | > | > ----- Original Message -----
> | > | > From: Steve Karnish
> | > | > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> | > | > Sent: Wednesday, April 19, 2000 8:27 PM
> | > | > Subject: Re: (Market) Jul Corn
> | > | >
> | > | >
> | > | > Adam,
> | > | >
> | > | > Although all the "troops" are in May, I would be a seller of July
on
> a
> | > | close
> | > | > above 287.75. Also, take a hard look at the wheat/corn spread
> (basis
> | > | July)
> | > | > under 30 cents. It has a bunch of potential. I put a bunch on at
> | 27.25
> | > | > today. Could be a big "wiener".
> | > | >
> | > | > Take care,
> | > | >
> | > | > Steve Karnish
> | > | > Cedar Creek Trading
> | > | > http://www.cedarcreektrading.com
> | > | >
> | > | >
> | > | > ----- Original Message -----
> | > | > From: Adam Hefner
> | > | > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> | > | > Sent: Wednesday, April 19, 2000 3:34 PM
> | > | > Subject: (Market) Jul Corn
> | > | >
> | > | >
> | > | >
> | > | > Since corn has reversed back up and remaining in the congestion
area
> I
> | > | will
> | > | > exit the corn sell signal tomorrow with a MIT
> | > | > at 235.1 (provided that is hit before my buy stop at 239.5). Not
> sure
> | > this
> | > | > is the best way to handle it but if my MIT is hit
> | > | > I will take a little .05 cent loss, if my stop is hit..a 5 cent
> loss.
> | > | > Comments anyone?
> | > | > Adam
> | > | >
> | > | >
> | > |
> | >
> | >
> |
>
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