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Bob,
Many thanks, I'll give them a spin and report back.
Steve Karnish
CCT
----------
> From: Bob Jagow <bjagow@xxxxxxx>
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: RE: CMO & Cocoa
> Date: Sunday, April 11, 1999 2:34 PM
>
> Steve,
> I noticed your use of Chandre's Composite CMO
> [(CMO(C,3)+CMO(C,5)+CMO(C,8))/3] and wondered if you've tried his
> 'volatility-based Composite CMO', which is
> CMOv = (S1*CMO1 + S2*CMO2 + S3*CMO3)/(S1 + S2 + S3), where Sn is the
n-day
> std dev of CMOn?
> It and a variation using abs(CMOn) as the volatility measure both look
> interesting.
> I coded them in TF+, but MS should be straightforward.
>
> Bob
>
>
> bjagow@xxxxxxx <mailto:bjagow@xxxxxxx>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve Karnish
> Sent: Sunday, April 11, 1999 12:10 PM
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: CMO & Cocoa
>
>
> Rudolph,
>
> "Do you use those indicators in a special unique combination, or do you
> calculate them separately and combine them e.g. by a kind of "binary
> waves" ?"
>
> I substitute fib numbers in any formula I stumble across. I simply add
the
> three together and after much experimentation, I have weighted each part
> (exact formula is available for $2,995, plus shipping, tax, and your
first
> born).
>
> "This is ok for me, especially, if you have special know-how about the
> market under consideration to understand & identify the reasons for
> special trends to be active."
>
> I don't know "squat" about cocoa. The leading producers are the Ivory
> Coast and Ghana. That's it for my knowledge about the market. Actually,
> Rudolph, you are talking like a "funny-mentalist" and those folks scare
the
> hell out of me.
>
> "Do you know about any other products around, that have strong trends
> on a regular basis like cocoa and about the reasons for this behavior?"
>
> I traded the energy complex...all the way down and as many people on this
> forum can attest to: I bought unleaded at .38 and got stopped out at
.5210.
> I would say that the energy complex is in an "uptrend" and will attempt
to
> buy on retracements. I'd say the reason the energy complex is going up
is:
> more demand than supply (or collusionary, dastardly, super secret deals).
> Sugar is in a downtrend and any time it has hit the 13 or 21 day average
I
> have shorted. Most of us have indicators that can discern a trend from
> sideways action. Lacking the tools to do this, I survived for years with
a
> straight edge and a pencil. A review of Edwards and Magee should help
> refresh one's memory on trends.
>
> "Do you have any special "insider" know-how about cocoa to get an idea,
> when special trends or patterns will be active? Imo, this would be
> necessary to use successfully any "special trend" model."
>
> I have "insider" knowledge about how my indicators act, but "insider"
> know-how about cocoa is something, even if I had access to, that would
> interfere with my "no brain...follow the signal dummy" approach that I
> apply to this market.
>
> Everyone seems to seek a "universal" indicator to magically apply to all
> markets traded. I have a client that argues that the indicators I use in
> cocoa don't work when they apply them to day trading the S&P's(what a
> revelation). Would you use the same repair manual to fix you're BMW as
you
> do with your Cadillac? They're both cars, why not just use schematics
for
> the engine of one and apply it to the other. Would you handicap the
> Kentucky derby the same way you would a country fair harness race?
They're
> all horses and it's a race. Does one use the same strategy in Hold 'em
> poker as in five card stud? It's all poker.
>
> Microsoft does not trade like cocoa and cocoa does not trade like beans.
> They trade and there's an exchange of supply and demand, but each dances
to
> it's own tune and each, at times, changes the tune that it dances to. If
> cocoa changes from the downtrend, that it has traded in for over a year,
to
> a choppy sideways market, I will adjust the parameters that I use to
trade
> it. If I fail to successfully make an adjustment that results in profit,
I
> will stop trading it.
>
> Please, don't get me wrong. There are universal principles that apply to
> fixing a car, or betting on horses or cards. Give me a dart and a sound
> money management approach and I can stop the "bleeding" in any market.
If
> you want to take it a step further, start with Edwards and Magee, learn
> about candlesticks, momentum oscillators, Gann, Fibonacci, Elliot, or try
> to extract an little knowledge from all the "guru" books that float
around
> for $169 (adjust upward for super secret, patented formulas; or real live
> seminars).
>
> I'm sure you already are applying many of these "helpers" to your market.
> It's great that you are enjoying success with your DAX trading. Keep up
> the good work. There's room for a lot of different approaches to all
these
> markets. I feel the most important attributes a trader can posses is an
> open mind, money management techniques, a healthy disregard for any "news
> and funny-mentals". Turn off the cable TV feed, stop reading "stories"
(or
> they'll "wag your dog") and be patient (wait for your market to set up).
>
>
> I enjoy your post,
>
> Steve Karnish
> CCT
>
>
> ----------
> > From: rudolf stricker <rst@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: Re: CMO & Cocoa
> > Date: Sunday, April 11, 1999 4:54 AM
> >
> >
> > Steve,
> >
> > On Sat, 10 Apr 1999 08:34:32 -0700, you wrote:
> >
> > > I use a combination of LinReg, SMI, & TSI
> > >(Kaleidoscope) for the most of my studies.
> >
> > Do you use those indicators in a special unique combination, or do you
> > calculate them separately and combine them e.g. by a kind of "binary
> > waves" ?
> >
> > >As for the CMO and cocoa: one
> > >look at the "perfectly" structured downtrend and one can discern that
> the
> > >parameters (variable periods and trigger levels) would not produce the
> same
> > >results if cocoa starts to trade above it's current channel.
> > [...]
> > >All one really has to do to take advantage of the cocoa downtrend (or
> any
> > >trend), is to sell against the 13 day moving average put a stop in at
> the
> > >34 day moving average. It would have resulted in a successful trade
the
> > >last 20+ times in cocoa.
> >
> > This might work for cocoa (but not for e.g. my DAX trading). BTW: Do
> > you have any special "insider" know-how about cocoa to get an idea,
> > when special trends or patterns will be active? Imo, this would be
> > necessary to use successfully any "special trend" model.
> >
> > > I don't buy into the
> > >suggestions that one must be able to back test a system for 5 years
with
> > >various samplings to validate an approach.
> > [...]
> > >The markets are dynamic. To think that a universally applied approach
> > >(mechanical) would consistently work on a commodity or many
commodities
> is
> > >not a very good premise to trade by.
> >
> > This is ok for me, especially, if you have special know-how about the
> > market under consideration to understand & identify the reasons for
> > special trends to be active.
> >
> > But because I don't have any special knowledge about the market
> > mechanisms for any special products, I concentrate on the most general
> > "product" , i.e. the DAX, and I try to anticipate its option prices
> > based on historical data of the DAX, its sentiments, and some
> > macro-economical aspects. And because I have a background in
> > "identification & re-use of know-how, based on example", I'm quite
> > successful up to now.
> >
> > >Nothing last forever, but in the meantime, until cocoa demonstrates
that
> it
> > >wants to trade out of it's channel, I will continue to take the
signals
> > >that this little secular system provides.
> >
> > Do you know about any other products around, that have strong trends
> > on a regular basis like cocoa and about the reasons for this behavior?
> >
> > Happy & successful trades!
> > mfg rudolf stricker
> > | Disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own.
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