|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Steve,
I noticed your use of Chandre's Composite CMO
[(CMO(C,3)+CMO(C,5)+CMO(C,8))/3] and wondered if you've tried his
'volatility-based Composite CMO', which is
CMOv = (S1*CMO1 + S2*CMO2 + S3*CMO3)/(S1 + S2 + S3), where Sn is the n-day
std dev of CMOn?
It and a variation using abs(CMOn) as the volatility measure both look
interesting.
I coded them in TF+, but MS should be straightforward.
Bob
bjagow@xxxxxxx <mailto:bjagow@xxxxxxx>
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve Karnish
Sent: Sunday, April 11, 1999 12:10 PM
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: CMO & Cocoa
Rudolph,
"Do you use those indicators in a special unique combination, or do you
calculate them separately and combine them e.g. by a kind of "binary
waves" ?"
I substitute fib numbers in any formula I stumble across. I simply add the
three together and after much experimentation, I have weighted each part
(exact formula is available for $2,995, plus shipping, tax, and your first
born).
"This is ok for me, especially, if you have special know-how about the
market under consideration to understand & identify the reasons for
special trends to be active."
I don't know "squat" about cocoa. The leading producers are the Ivory
Coast and Ghana. That's it for my knowledge about the market. Actually,
Rudolph, you are talking like a "funny-mentalist" and those folks scare the
hell out of me.
"Do you know about any other products around, that have strong trends
on a regular basis like cocoa and about the reasons for this behavior?"
I traded the energy complex...all the way down and as many people on this
forum can attest to: I bought unleaded at .38 and got stopped out at .5210.
I would say that the energy complex is in an "uptrend" and will attempt to
buy on retracements. I'd say the reason the energy complex is going up is:
more demand than supply (or collusionary, dastardly, super secret deals).
Sugar is in a downtrend and any time it has hit the 13 or 21 day average I
have shorted. Most of us have indicators that can discern a trend from
sideways action. Lacking the tools to do this, I survived for years with a
straight edge and a pencil. A review of Edwards and Magee should help
refresh one's memory on trends.
"Do you have any special "insider" know-how about cocoa to get an idea,
when special trends or patterns will be active? Imo, this would be
necessary to use successfully any "special trend" model."
I have "insider" knowledge about how my indicators act, but "insider"
know-how about cocoa is something, even if I had access to, that would
interfere with my "no brain...follow the signal dummy" approach that I
apply to this market.
Everyone seems to seek a "universal" indicator to magically apply to all
markets traded. I have a client that argues that the indicators I use in
cocoa don't work when they apply them to day trading the S&P's(what a
revelation). Would you use the same repair manual to fix you're BMW as you
do with your Cadillac? They're both cars, why not just use schematics for
the engine of one and apply it to the other. Would you handicap the
Kentucky derby the same way you would a country fair harness race? They're
all horses and it's a race. Does one use the same strategy in Hold 'em
poker as in five card stud? It's all poker.
Microsoft does not trade like cocoa and cocoa does not trade like beans.
They trade and there's an exchange of supply and demand, but each dances to
it's own tune and each, at times, changes the tune that it dances to. If
cocoa changes from the downtrend, that it has traded in for over a year, to
a choppy sideways market, I will adjust the parameters that I use to trade
it. If I fail to successfully make an adjustment that results in profit, I
will stop trading it.
Please, don't get me wrong. There are universal principles that apply to
fixing a car, or betting on horses or cards. Give me a dart and a sound
money management approach and I can stop the "bleeding" in any market. If
you want to take it a step further, start with Edwards and Magee, learn
about candlesticks, momentum oscillators, Gann, Fibonacci, Elliot, or try
to extract an little knowledge from all the "guru" books that float around
for $169 (adjust upward for super secret, patented formulas; or real live
seminars).
I'm sure you already are applying many of these "helpers" to your market.
It's great that you are enjoying success with your DAX trading. Keep up
the good work. There's room for a lot of different approaches to all these
markets. I feel the most important attributes a trader can posses is an
open mind, money management techniques, a healthy disregard for any "news
and funny-mentals". Turn off the cable TV feed, stop reading "stories" (or
they'll "wag your dog") and be patient (wait for your market to set up).
I enjoy your post,
Steve Karnish
CCT
----------
> From: rudolf stricker <rst@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: CMO & Cocoa
> Date: Sunday, April 11, 1999 4:54 AM
>
>
> Steve,
>
> On Sat, 10 Apr 1999 08:34:32 -0700, you wrote:
>
> > I use a combination of LinReg, SMI, & TSI
> >(Kaleidoscope) for the most of my studies.
>
> Do you use those indicators in a special unique combination, or do you
> calculate them separately and combine them e.g. by a kind of "binary
> waves" ?
>
> >As for the CMO and cocoa: one
> >look at the "perfectly" structured downtrend and one can discern that
the
> >parameters (variable periods and trigger levels) would not produce the
same
> >results if cocoa starts to trade above it's current channel.
> [...]
> >All one really has to do to take advantage of the cocoa downtrend (or
any
> >trend), is to sell against the 13 day moving average put a stop in at
the
> >34 day moving average. It would have resulted in a successful trade the
> >last 20+ times in cocoa.
>
> This might work for cocoa (but not for e.g. my DAX trading). BTW: Do
> you have any special "insider" know-how about cocoa to get an idea,
> when special trends or patterns will be active? Imo, this would be
> necessary to use successfully any "special trend" model.
>
> > I don't buy into the
> >suggestions that one must be able to back test a system for 5 years with
> >various samplings to validate an approach.
> [...]
> >The markets are dynamic. To think that a universally applied approach
> >(mechanical) would consistently work on a commodity or many commodities
is
> >not a very good premise to trade by.
>
> This is ok for me, especially, if you have special know-how about the
> market under consideration to understand & identify the reasons for
> special trends to be active.
>
> But because I don't have any special knowledge about the market
> mechanisms for any special products, I concentrate on the most general
> "product" , i.e. the DAX, and I try to anticipate its option prices
> based on historical data of the DAX, its sentiments, and some
> macro-economical aspects. And because I have a background in
> "identification & re-use of know-how, based on example", I'm quite
> successful up to now.
>
> >Nothing last forever, but in the meantime, until cocoa demonstrates that
it
> >wants to trade out of it's channel, I will continue to take the signals
> >that this little secular system provides.
>
> Do you know about any other products around, that have strong trends
> on a regular basis like cocoa and about the reasons for this behavior?
>
> Happy & successful trades!
> mfg rudolf stricker
> | Disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own.
|