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JimG
We added some more on the short side, so our average is around 1223. I
anticipated the possibility of a move to 1234 basis yesterday.
Still hate these trades against the trend, but we're still averaging almost
80%, so we have to go with the system.
BTW, my brother sent me the numbers for our system whereby he was able to
assign the risk of ruin based on our actual results (78% probability of
success with a 2 to 1 payoff ratio). With 1/3 of our capital invested, the
risk of ruin is around 1%. We're going to do some more work on this to try
to determine what an appropriate risk of ruin is (something we can live
with) when compared to the alternative (ROI).
Regards
Guy
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Jim Greening
Sent: Monday, April 05, 1999 8:59 PM
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: hold on - Short
Guy,
Looks to me like a breakout to the upside. Where's your stop?
JimG
-----Original Message-----
From: Guy Tann <grt@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: Metastock <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Monday, April 05, 1999 6:39 AM
Subject: hold on - Short
>JimG
>
>Well, FWIW, we reversed this morning, probably too soon, at 1315 basis Jun
>S&P, taking our profits on our last long.
>
>Since we're trading against our intermediate term trend, I'll be looking to
>grab some profits on any sharp breaks in the market. Hopefully the market
>follows our scenario. <G> As you know, we trade using probabilities.
>Currently we have a working probability of success on this trade of close
to
>80%. Maybe this won't be one of the one out of five that bites us in the
>rear. <G>
>
>Regards
>
>Guy
>
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