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Steve
I would be forever grateful. I've tried to duplicate the Coney sauce, and
it's better than what I find locally, but still not good enough.
Salivating expectantly,
Guy
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve Karnish
> Sent: Friday, September 11, 1998 6:29 AM
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>
>
> Guy,
> My mother has recreated home recipes for both the sauces. I'd
> be glad to forward them to you. Years later, Saturday Night
> Live's: Cheeseburger, cheeseburger, cheeseburger skit always
> reminded me of the Greeks who controlled the Coney scene in
> Detroit.
> Steve Karnish
> CCT
>
> ----------
> From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> Date: Thursday, September 10, 1998 9:23 PM
>
> Steve
>
> Did check out the CKLW site. Brings back memories. BTW, my
> sister is
> coming out shortly and bring me some Coney Island sauce, if you
> remember
> those hot dogs. I haven't found them anywhere else. Told her
> not to bring
> any Sanders Hot Fudge as I don't share it. I hide it in the
> back of the
> fridge and eat it with a spoon <ggg>. There goes the old
> waistline.
>
> Guy
>
>
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve
> Karnish
> > Sent: Monday, September 07, 1998 8:10 AM
> > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> >
> >
> > Guy,
> >
> > Soupy's son's Hunt and Tony went to school in Livonia. My
> > mother knew them in high school and I later met them in
> > Hollyweird (after they were bratty super stars). Hunt was the
> > drummer on a couple of Iggy Pop albums in the mid seventies.
> In
> > fact, if you listen to the sound track of those new Buick
> > commercials, it's Iggy's "Lust for Life". Tony plays the
> > booming bass and Hunt is the Neanderthal drummer. A couple
> of
> > those albums were produced by David Bowie and when he started
> > his Tin Machine band about 8 or 10 years ago, he teamed up
> with
> > the Sales Bros. I have a couple favorite stories about Hunt
> (one
> > involves Tijuana, a bar named Iguanas, and a mosh pit), I
> don't
> > think this is the proper forum.
> >
> > You might be too old to appreciate this (just teasing), but
> you
> > might want to visit: http://www.cklw.org/. I know it's not
> > WJR...but if you ever got into Dick Purtan or were listening
> to
> > any rock music in your "twenties", it's a real time machine.
> >
> > The search for descent priced out of the money puts is on.
> Over
> > the years "fair value" has always been a difficult thing to
> find
> > in any of the OEX series. I'm hoping that I can snag some
> value
> > in some new obscure option series that hardly anyone is
> playing
> > (options on futures). The lack of robust liquidity is
> certainly
> > a reasonable trade off if the OEX options don't offer any fair
> > value. I'll keep you informed. In a perfect world (Stevie
> > Wonder's Egocentric Idaho), the markets would exceed all my
> > expectation for the next 7 or 8 trading days and with our
> > society's attitude" "what have you done for me yesterday",
> > everyone would be myopic enough to think that we're going back
> > to new highs. Under that scenario, puts would be cheaper and
> > intrinsically, much closer to what they are worth.
> >
> > You seem to have a good grasp on your local market. All my
> good
> > friends InSaneDiego, are real giddy about the feeding frenzy
> > going on. It reminds me of the middle 80's to '88/'89 time.
> I
> > had a friend (old roommate) who left Denver in '86. He was a
> > bond trader and his wife was Marvin Davis's CPA's. They
> bought
> > a cute place adjacent to Griffith Park and paid $375k
> > (reasonable at the time). Eighteen months later they turned
> > down $650K. Recently, I've advised two close friends in North
> > County to cash out and rent for a couple of years. I actually
> > see 3% - 4% interest rates looming in the future. La la has
> > imploded before and I believe it's going to again. I know
> it's
> > a real trick bag...best of luck in how you play it. My
> > decisions are a bit easier: Do I buy all the acerage I want
> for
> > $1,000/acre or do I wait til spring when the bankers force a
> > bunch of sales around here and pick the land up for $700/acre?
> > I think I'll wait.
> >
> > Panhandling in Idaho,
> >
> > Steve Karnish
> > CCT
> >
> > ----------
> > From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> > Date: Monday, September 07, 1998 12:33 AM
> >
> > Steve
> >
> > I can't believe you mentioned Gilda, Soupy, Tim Allan, et al.
> >
> > My ex-mother-in-law went to school with Soupy in West Va. and
> it
> > used to be
> > one of our funnest moments (as Evan would say <G>) to go down
> to
> > the
> > Macabees (sp?) Bldg., and celebrate New Years with Soupy.
> Both
> > of my older
> > boys have signed pictures from him. Heck, I went through
> > college having
> > lunch with Soupy <ggg>.
> >
> > I grew up with Gilda's older brother and just knew her as a
> > skinny little
> > kid.
> >
> > Tim Allan and family and my wife and son flew back on one of
> > their many trip
> > via Northworst. Tim's daughter tried to pick up Evan (she and
> > he were about
> > 4 at the time) but he was playing hard to get <g>. Tim
> offered
> > my wife and
> > son a ride in their limo to our house, but the little guy
> > wouldn't go, so
> > they took a cab (all of 4 miles from LAX).
> >
> > You forgot one of our most famous natives. Ivan!! I grew up
> > with Ivan. We
> > used to double date. What really shook me up 2 weeks ago was
> a
> > call that
> > one of our group died. Out of the original group (I was the
> > youngest),
> > everyone is dead except Ivan and myself.
> >
> > Do you have any recommendations on some out of the money puts
> > (OEX or S&P)?
> > I'm going to start stocking up on them over the next few
> weeks.
> > I took both
> > of my older kids totally out of equities and into Bonds. My
> > wife's 401k
> > can't be moved for 5 months so I've got to protect that with
> > some of these
> > Out of the Money Puts.
> >
> > I've also told my middle son to hold of on buying that house
> > he's been
> > looking at ($550k). At least wait until Christmas time when
> > the market
> > dies. The more I look at the numbers, it looks like 1999 will
> > be the end of
> > our bull move in housing here. It's not as important for him
> as
> > he make a
> > ton and his fiancée will make more than he does, so their
> > housing purchase
> > will be less than half their gross income this year. I wish I
> > had those
> > troubles... <ggg>
> >
> > If I had cahones, I'd sell mine and rent for a year or two. I
> > hate to see
> > the $300k equity evaporate. Wish someone offered housing puts
> > <G>. That
> > would be good insurance play. The alternative is to mortgage
> it
> > to the hilt
> > and use the money to short everything in sight. Nah, she
> won't
> > let me do
> > that either. My problem is that we have a bunch of money due,
> > hopefully by
> > year end that might disappear if everything goes to the
> dumper,
> > and it's
> > totally out of our control... You know the old story about
> > bending over and
> > kissing your *** goodbye. I'm afraid that will happen to us
> > this year and
> > it was a big part of retirement.
> >
> > Regards
> >
> > Guy
> >
> >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve
> > Karnish
> > > Sent: Sunday, September 06, 1998 7:33 PM
> > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> > >
> > >
> > > Guy,
> > >
> > > Hopefully you saw through my thinly vailed, sarcastic
> Detroit
> > > humor (Robin Williams, Lily Tomlin, Tim Allen, Gilda Radner,
> > and
> > > of course Soupy), to see that I'm hanging on to my third
> week
> > in
> > > September prediction (It was about as thinly vailed as
> Madonna
> > > dressed up as a nun...another fine Murder City comedian).
> > >
> > > Of course, you're only as good as your last prediction.
> This
> > is
> > > for you Guy, the only person, on the list, who lived just
> off
> > > of Middlebelt (I lived five houses away 29525 W. Chicago).
> > You
> > > must promise to keep this to yourself: All my "super
> secret"
> > > calculations point to a rally to "bounce back" to at least
> > 1015
> > > - 1020 in the Sept. 500 and then I'm targeting 910 on the
> > > downside.
> > >
> > > I seldom target anything. It seems when I do, I get
> > emotionally
> > > attached to the outcome. These markets are real seducers.
> If
> > > you get to attached to an outcome, they'll break your heart.
> > >
> > > I almost "fell in love" with crude oil recently. We started
> > > going out early last week. It was love at first sight. She
> > had
> > > gone through tough times and I kinda "picked her up" near
> the
> > > bottom of her life. Well, things just got better everyday
> and
> > I
> > > thought it might last forever (you know, like a couple of
> > > weeks). Then, on Friday, she started acting funny. She no
> > > longer wanted go in the direction I wanted to go. It was
> like
> > > she followed me up to a point and then she resisted. It was
> > as
> > > if she would go right up to a line in the sand and then
> > wouldn't
> > > cross it. Well, I told her I'd take the weekend to
> > reevaluate
> > > our relationship, but, after consulting a few close,
> objective
> > > friends, I'm dumping her on Monday. I don't want to get
> hurt
> > > again. It's the best thing for both of us.
> > > Sorry about pouring my heart out in public. Please don't
> feel
> > > bad for me, we had some real good times and I've been seeing
> > > this girl from Canada on the side.
> > >
> > > Anyway, don't get caught with long positions right before
> the
> > > "triplewitch" ... she'll put a spell on you! If I come
> close
> > to
> > > any of these predictions, I'll be writing a book this
> winter:
> > > "Leonardo Fibonacci: The Missing Years". If not, I might
> > > write: "The Secret Rock and Roll Life of Robert Prechter".
> > >
> > > Hope your weekend is going good.
> > > Howling at the full moon,
> > >
> > > Steve Karnish
> > > CCT
> > >
> > >
> > > ----------
> > > > From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> > > > Date: Sunday, September 06, 1998 4:17 PM
> > > >
> > > > OK Steve
> > > >
> > > > Now I'm confused. What's the date???? October 5 or the
> > third
> > > week of
> > > > September???
> > > >
> > > > The market held our support price, basis S&P futures of
> 936.
> > > The upside
> > > > channel resistance is 1076 (approx.). If we get anywhere
> > near
> > > there, I plan
> > > > on buying a bunch of Out of the Money Puts and hold on.
> > > >
> > > > I see a possible range for the S&P of 140 points and this
> > > translates to 1260
> > > > Dow points (approx.), I think. If we do get a run up to
> > > anywhere that
> > > > level, it might be worth it to 'take a shot'. This weeks
> > S&P
> > > support
> > > > (again, I'm talking futures prices here) is 941 (approx.).
> > > Any breakout
> > > > below that number, even interday, could mean a target of
> 867
> > > (approx.).
> > > > That would be the equivalent of 981 Dow points down from
> the
> > > close Friday.
> > > >
> > > > These are just some of the numbers I'm reading from my
> > charts.
> > > I haven't
> > > > looked at calculating a 'bottom'.
> > > >
> > > > Guy
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve
> > > Karnish
> > > > > Sent: Friday, September 04, 1998 5:47 PM
> > > > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > > Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or
> SIMS
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Guy,
> > > > >
> > > > > I was watching "Mr. Rogers" on PBS this morning and he
> > said:
> > > > > "Kids, can you spell: D I S S E M E N A T I O N "?
> > > > >
> > > > > If the funds were fully invested in July (not a big
> > stretch
> > > of
> > > > > the imagination, but let's assume that they were only
> 90%
> > > > > invested) and we see month, after month, after month, of
> > > > > withdrawals...how will that affect the market?
> > Duhhhhhhhh.
> > > > >
> > > > > Don't forget these "young guns" (funds managers that
> have
> > > never
> > > > > seen a bear market and in reality are investors and not
> > > traders)
> > > > > all get paid the bulk of their income on bonuses and
> they
> > > have
> > > > > refused to sell during this little 18% drawdown. "Hey
> > man,
> > > we
> > > > > can't cash out now and identify a loss, that will
> destroy
> > my
> > > > > year end bonus". Think about that whole scene.
> > > > >
> > > > > Notice that the same people that were raging bulls in
> mid
> > > July
> > > > > are now the ones who, like "Stan", think: I'm in it for
> > the
> > > > > long run. Sure! The public will be selling their funds
> > in
> > > > > record numbers right at the exact bottom. The same "8
> > year
> > > > > Wizard Investors" will be regurgitating every last share
> > and
> > > vow
> > > > > "never" to get involved again. Isn't this Yogi's deja
> vu
> > > all
> > > > > over again? Please respond if you were around for the
> 22
> > > month
> > > > > bear in '73 or around for the after birth of '87 (Guy, I
> > > know
> > > > > you were there, and please do keep supplying us with
> > > neighborly
> > > > > stories).
> > > > >
> > > > > For the bulls in the crowd, I'd love to hear your
> > arguments.
> > > > > Please don't make me giggle too much, I've already
> pulled
> > a
> > > > > stomach muscle laughing "all the way to the bank" this
> > week.
> > > > > Since the opening on Tuesday I've been long crude, long
> > the
> > > Can
> > > > > $, and long wheat. Each made historic contract lows
> > Monday
> > > or
> > > > > Tuesday and the commodity index made 21 year lows on
> > Friday
> > > and
> > > > > then again on Monday.
> > > > >
> > > > > So, one last chance to collect your marbles and go home.
> > > Two
> > > > > weeks from today is a 'triple witching" day. Before we
> > even
> > > get
> > > > > to the 18th of September, we must contend with my buddy
> > > > > Fibonacci. I alluded that Dino would break your
> kneecaps
> > > for
> > > > > $50. His ancient relative, Leonardo, will break your
> > heart
> > > (and
> > > > > steal your wallet) in 55 days (from the highs). Tick,
> > > tick,
> > > > > tick, tick, tick, on our way to 55 and counting.
> > > > >
> > > > > Steve Karnish
> > > > > CCT
> > > > > ----------
> > > > > > From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > To: Metastock <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > Subject: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> > > > > > Date: Friday, September 04, 1998 2:44 PM
> > > > > >
> > > > > > This is a personal note about the market and various
> > > investor
> > > > > thoughts.
> > > > > > I'll call it the 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment
> or
> > > SIMS
> > > > > <G>.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Background..
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I have a friend, locally, who has been the poster boy
> > for
> > > the
> > > > > bull market.
> > > > > > He was born into a family in South Central LA. For
> > those
> > > of
> > > > > you who don't
> > > > > > know, that's the pits. I won't go into details of his
> > > youth,
> > > > > but he managed
> > > > > > to succeed in life, no help to family and friends. By
> > the
> > > > > time he was 40,
> > > > > > he owned his home outright here (with an ocean view
> > even).
> > > > > Married a cute
> > > > > > blond and has an 8 year old, who is my son's best
> friend
> > > (or
> > > > > second best, if
> > > > > > you ask my son <G>). In fact, that's how I originally
> > met
> > > > > Stan. Through
> > > > > > his wife while playing Mr. Mom with my 18 month old.
> So
> > > I've
> > > > > known Stan for
> > > > > > 6 1/2 years.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Stan's Market Philosophy
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Stan, based on his background, is not a spender. His
> > > wife is
> > > > > perfect for
> > > > > > him, because she can grind down the best of them
> <ggg>.
> > > > > Anyway, Stan is a
> > > > > > sales rep. Respected and liked in his field, I'm
> told.
> > > He
> > > > > currently makes
> > > > > > about $150k a year and saves $4-5k a month. And don't
> > ask
> > > me
> > > > > how? We make
> > > > > > a lot more and save a lot less. <G>
> > > > > >
> > > > > > For as long as I've know Stan, he has been dumping all
> > > excess
> > > > > cash into
> > > > > > various funds. He stayed away from any funds with
> > > > > international exposures,
> > > > > > probably based upon his conservative bent. When we
> > > discussed
> > > > > the various
> > > > > > ups and downs of the market, the two of us are on
> > > different
> > > > > planets. His
> > > > > > response was, always, "so the market dropped." "I'm
> in
> > it
> > > for
> > > > > the long pull
> > > > > > and in the next 18 years or so, it'll do OK." He felt
> > > that
> > > > > the last few
> > > > > > years were a little extreme, but that he would be able
> > to
> > > > > maintain a 10% per
> > > > > > year growth. In my mind, Stan is the typical, modern
> > > investor
> > > > > with their
> > > > > > 401k investments.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Last week, everything changed! Stan has decided to
> > forgo
> > > > > putting any more
> > > > > > money into his various funds. He has started
> investing
> > > all of
> > > > > his new
> > > > > > savings in CD's and Bonds. Now, you have to
> understand
> > > that
> > > > > he is not
> > > > > > pulling any money out of his mutual funds, just not
> > adding
> > > > > anything new.
> > > > > > For Stan, this is a MAJOR paradigm shift. And while
> he
> > > > > refuses to look at
> > > > > > historical facts in the market, when annual return was
> > > > > substantially less
> > > > > > than 10% a year, he has at least started to protect
> > > himself
> > > > > and not keep all
> > > > > > of his eggs in one basket.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I sort of refer to this as the SIMS. If he represents
> > the
> > > > > average American,
> > > > > > then we can look for Fund inflows to decrease while
> Bond
> > > funds
> > > > > and banks
> > > > > > should have increased inflows. Meaning more money
> > > available
> > > > > for lending and
> > > > > > no where to go.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I wonder how long it'll take Stan to realize that all
> of
> > > his
> > > > > current fund
> > > > > > investments are exposed to risk? My dad told me a
> year
> > > ago,
> > > > > that the
> > > > > > NASDAQ will drop 50% before the public will figure out
> > > they're
> > > > > in a bear
> > > > > > market. I guess I'll keep watching Stan!
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Regards
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Guy
> > > > >
> > >
> > ----------
> >
> ----------
>
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