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Guy,
I don't ignore any of this. I trade 'em up everyday. The truth
of the matter is I'm not in the prediction game. Many people on
this list get caught up in the "prediction syndrome". Even some
of these technical sites have you "predict" where the Dow is
going to be on Halloween (or whenever). I a reactionary. I
don't predict anything. I toss out some semi flippant comments
about where the market looks like it's going on occasion.
Everyday, I try to blank out my mind (easy task when your not
starting with much up there in the first place) and start over.
I look at each position and say, would I buy it right now and if
I say no and I'm in a long position...I toss it. Open
mindedness is the single greatest asset a trader can have. I
see tons of emotion running through these posts. I prefer to
judge the past, get a clue about the present position and
direction and try to ride momentum and relative strength.
Sometimes it works, many times it doesn't. The entire key is
money management principles.
Steve Karnish
CCT
----------
> From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> Date: Thursday, September 10, 1998 9:23 PM
>
> Steve
>
> Went back through some of your posts. Why did we ignore this
one? You
> called for a bounce back to 1015-1020 which it did.
>
> Guy
>
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve
Karnish
> > Sent: Sunday, September 06, 1998 7:33 PM
> > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> >
> >
> > Guy,
> >
> > Hopefully you saw through my thinly vailed, sarcastic
Detroit
> > humor (Robin Williams, Lily Tomlin, Tim Allen, Gilda Radner,
and
> > of course Soupy), to see that I'm hanging on to my third
week in
> > September prediction (It was about as thinly vailed as
Madonna
> > dressed up as a nun...another fine Murder City comedian).
> >
> > Of course, you're only as good as your last prediction.
This is
> > for you Guy, the only person, on the list, who lived just
off
> > of Middlebelt (I lived five houses away 29525 W. Chicago).
You
> > must promise to keep this to yourself: All my "super
secret"
> > calculations point to a rally to "bounce back" to at least
1015
> > - 1020 in the Sept. 500 and then I'm targeting 910 on the
> > downside.
> >
> > I seldom target anything. It seems when I do, I get
emotionally
> > attached to the outcome. These markets are real seducers.
If
> > you get to attached to an outcome, they'll break your heart.
> >
> > I almost "fell in love" with crude oil recently. We started
> > going out early last week. It was love at first sight. She
had
> > gone through tough times and I kinda "picked her up" near
the
> > bottom of her life. Well, things just got better everyday
and I
> > thought it might last forever (you know, like a couple of
> > weeks). Then, on Friday, she started acting funny. She no
> > longer wanted go in the direction I wanted to go. It was
like
> > she followed me up to a point and then she resisted. It was
as
> > if she would go right up to a line in the sand and then
wouldn't
> > cross it. Well, I told her I'd take the weekend to
reevaluate
> > our relationship, but, after consulting a few close,
objective
> > friends, I'm dumping her on Monday. I don't want to get
hurt
> > again. It's the best thing for both of us.
> > Sorry about pouring my heart out in public. Please don't
feel
> > bad for me, we had some real good times and I've been seeing
> > this girl from Canada on the side.
> >
> > Anyway, don't get caught with long positions right before
the
> > "triplewitch" ... she'll put a spell on you! If I come
close to
> > any of these predictions, I'll be writing a book this
winter:
> > "Leonardo Fibonacci: The Missing Years". If not, I might
> > write: "The Secret Rock and Roll Life of Robert Prechter".
> >
> > Hope your weekend is going good.
> > Howling at the full moon,
> >
> > Steve Karnish
> > CCT
> >
> >
> > ----------
> > > From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> > > Date: Sunday, September 06, 1998 4:17 PM
> > >
> > > OK Steve
> > >
> > > Now I'm confused. What's the date???? October 5 or the
third
> > week of
> > > September???
> > >
> > > The market held our support price, basis S&P futures of
936.
> > The upside
> > > channel resistance is 1076 (approx.). If we get anywhere
near
> > there, I plan
> > > on buying a bunch of Out of the Money Puts and hold on.
> > >
> > > I see a possible range for the S&P of 140 points and this
> > translates to 1260
> > > Dow points (approx.), I think. If we do get a run up to
> > anywhere that
> > > level, it might be worth it to 'take a shot'. This weeks
S&P
> > support
> > > (again, I'm talking futures prices here) is 941 (approx.).
> > Any breakout
> > > below that number, even interday, could mean a target of
867
> > (approx.).
> > > That would be the equivalent of 981 Dow points down from
the
> > close Friday.
> > >
> > > These are just some of the numbers I'm reading from my
charts.
> > I haven't
> > > looked at calculating a 'bottom'.
> > >
> > > Guy
> > >
> > >
> > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve
> > Karnish
> > > > Sent: Friday, September 04, 1998 5:47 PM
> > > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or
SIMS
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Guy,
> > > >
> > > > I was watching "Mr. Rogers" on PBS this morning and he
said:
> > > > "Kids, can you spell: D I S S E M E N A T I O N "?
> > > >
> > > > If the funds were fully invested in July (not a big
stretch
> > of
> > > > the imagination, but let's assume that they were only
90%
> > > > invested) and we see month, after month, after month, of
> > > > withdrawals...how will that affect the market?
Duhhhhhhhh.
> > > >
> > > > Don't forget these "young guns" (funds managers that
have
> > never
> > > > seen a bear market and in reality are investors and not
> > traders)
> > > > all get paid the bulk of their income on bonuses and
they
> > have
> > > > refused to sell during this little 18% drawdown. "Hey
man,
> > we
> > > > can't cash out now and identify a loss, that will
destroy my
> > > > year end bonus". Think about that whole scene.
> > > >
> > > > Notice that the same people that were raging bulls in
mid
> > July
> > > > are now the ones who, like "Stan", think: I'm in it for
the
> > > > long run. Sure! The public will be selling their funds
in
> > > > record numbers right at the exact bottom. The same "8
year
> > > > Wizard Investors" will be regurgitating every last share
and
> > vow
> > > > "never" to get involved again. Isn't this Yogi's deja
vu
> > all
> > > > over again? Please respond if you were around for the
22
> > month
> > > > bear in '73 or around for the after birth of '87 (Guy, I
> > know
> > > > you were there, and please do keep supplying us with
> > neighborly
> > > > stories).
> > > >
> > > > For the bulls in the crowd, I'd love to hear your
arguments.
> > > > Please don't make me giggle too much, I've already
pulled a
> > > > stomach muscle laughing "all the way to the bank" this
week.
> > > > Since the opening on Tuesday I've been long crude, long
the
> > Can
> > > > $, and long wheat. Each made historic contract lows
Monday
> > or
> > > > Tuesday and the commodity index made 21 year lows on
Friday
> > and
> > > > then again on Monday.
> > > >
> > > > So, one last chance to collect your marbles and go home.
> > Two
> > > > weeks from today is a 'triple witching" day. Before we
even
> > get
> > > > to the 18th of September, we must contend with my buddy
> > > > Fibonacci. I alluded that Dino would break your
kneecaps
> > for
> > > > $50. His ancient relative, Leonardo, will break your
heart
> > (and
> > > > steal your wallet) in 55 days (from the highs). Tick,
> > tick,
> > > > tick, tick, tick, on our way to 55 and counting.
> > > >
> > > > Steve Karnish
> > > > CCT
> > > > ----------
> > > > > From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > To: Metastock <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > Subject: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> > > > > Date: Friday, September 04, 1998 2:44 PM
> > > > >
> > > > > This is a personal note about the market and various
> > investor
> > > > thoughts.
> > > > > I'll call it the 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment
or
> > SIMS
> > > > <G>.
> > > > >
> > > > > Background..
> > > > >
> > > > > I have a friend, locally, who has been the poster boy
for
> > the
> > > > bull market.
> > > > > He was born into a family in South Central LA. For
those
> > of
> > > > you who don't
> > > > > know, that's the pits. I won't go into details of his
> > youth,
> > > > but he managed
> > > > > to succeed in life, no help to family and friends. By
the
> > > > time he was 40,
> > > > > he owned his home outright here (with an ocean view
even).
> > > > Married a cute
> > > > > blond and has an 8 year old, who is my son's best
friend
> > (or
> > > > second best, if
> > > > > you ask my son <G>). In fact, that's how I originally
met
> > > > Stan. Through
> > > > > his wife while playing Mr. Mom with my 18 month old.
So
> > I've
> > > > known Stan for
> > > > > 6 1/2 years.
> > > > >
> > > > > Stan's Market Philosophy
> > > > >
> > > > > Stan, based on his background, is not a spender. His
> > wife is
> > > > perfect for
> > > > > him, because she can grind down the best of them
<ggg>.
> > > > Anyway, Stan is a
> > > > > sales rep. Respected and liked in his field, I'm
told.
> > He
> > > > currently makes
> > > > > about $150k a year and saves $4-5k a month. And don't
ask
> > me
> > > > how? We make
> > > > > a lot more and save a lot less. <G>
> > > > >
> > > > > For as long as I've know Stan, he has been dumping all
> > excess
> > > > cash into
> > > > > various funds. He stayed away from any funds with
> > > > international exposures,
> > > > > probably based upon his conservative bent. When we
> > discussed
> > > > the various
> > > > > ups and downs of the market, the two of us are on
> > different
> > > > planets. His
> > > > > response was, always, "so the market dropped." "I'm
in it
> > for
> > > > the long pull
> > > > > and in the next 18 years or so, it'll do OK." He felt
> > that
> > > > the last few
> > > > > years were a little extreme, but that he would be able
to
> > > > maintain a 10% per
> > > > > year growth. In my mind, Stan is the typical, modern
> > investor
> > > > with their
> > > > > 401k investments.
> > > > >
> > > > > Last week, everything changed! Stan has decided to
forgo
> > > > putting any more
> > > > > money into his various funds. He has started
investing
> > all of
> > > > his new
> > > > > savings in CD's and Bonds. Now, you have to
understand
> > that
> > > > he is not
> > > > > pulling any money out of his mutual funds, just not
adding
> > > > anything new.
> > > > > For Stan, this is a MAJOR paradigm shift. And while
he
> > > > refuses to look at
> > > > > historical facts in the market, when annual return was
> > > > substantially less
> > > > > than 10% a year, he has at least started to protect
> > himself
> > > > and not keep all
> > > > > of his eggs in one basket.
> > > > >
> > > > > I sort of refer to this as the SIMS. If he represents
the
> > > > average American,
> > > > > then we can look for Fund inflows to decrease while
Bond
> > funds
> > > > and banks
> > > > > should have increased inflows. Meaning more money
> > available
> > > > for lending and
> > > > > no where to go.
> > > > >
> > > > > I wonder how long it'll take Stan to realize that all
of
> > his
> > > > current fund
> > > > > investments are exposed to risk? My dad told me a
year
> > ago,
> > > > that the
> > > > > NASDAQ will drop 50% before the public will figure out
> > they're
> > > > in a bear
> > > > > market. I guess I'll keep watching Stan!
> > > > >
> > > > > Regards
> > > > >
> > > > > Guy
> > > >
> >
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