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Steve
Went back through some of your posts. Why did we ignore this one? You
called for a bounce back to 1015-1020 which it did.
Guy
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve Karnish
> Sent: Sunday, September 06, 1998 7:33 PM
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>
>
> Guy,
>
> Hopefully you saw through my thinly vailed, sarcastic Detroit
> humor (Robin Williams, Lily Tomlin, Tim Allen, Gilda Radner, and
> of course Soupy), to see that I'm hanging on to my third week in
> September prediction (It was about as thinly vailed as Madonna
> dressed up as a nun...another fine Murder City comedian).
>
> Of course, you're only as good as your last prediction. This is
> for you Guy, the only person, on the list, who lived just off
> of Middlebelt (I lived five houses away 29525 W. Chicago). You
> must promise to keep this to yourself: All my "super secret"
> calculations point to a rally to "bounce back" to at least 1015
> - 1020 in the Sept. 500 and then I'm targeting 910 on the
> downside.
>
> I seldom target anything. It seems when I do, I get emotionally
> attached to the outcome. These markets are real seducers. If
> you get to attached to an outcome, they'll break your heart.
>
> I almost "fell in love" with crude oil recently. We started
> going out early last week. It was love at first sight. She had
> gone through tough times and I kinda "picked her up" near the
> bottom of her life. Well, things just got better everyday and I
> thought it might last forever (you know, like a couple of
> weeks). Then, on Friday, she started acting funny. She no
> longer wanted go in the direction I wanted to go. It was like
> she followed me up to a point and then she resisted. It was as
> if she would go right up to a line in the sand and then wouldn't
> cross it. Well, I told her I'd take the weekend to reevaluate
> our relationship, but, after consulting a few close, objective
> friends, I'm dumping her on Monday. I don't want to get hurt
> again. It's the best thing for both of us.
> Sorry about pouring my heart out in public. Please don't feel
> bad for me, we had some real good times and I've been seeing
> this girl from Canada on the side.
>
> Anyway, don't get caught with long positions right before the
> "triplewitch" ... she'll put a spell on you! If I come close to
> any of these predictions, I'll be writing a book this winter:
> "Leonardo Fibonacci: The Missing Years". If not, I might
> write: "The Secret Rock and Roll Life of Robert Prechter".
>
> Hope your weekend is going good.
> Howling at the full moon,
>
> Steve Karnish
> CCT
>
>
> ----------
> > From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> > Date: Sunday, September 06, 1998 4:17 PM
> >
> > OK Steve
> >
> > Now I'm confused. What's the date???? October 5 or the third
> week of
> > September???
> >
> > The market held our support price, basis S&P futures of 936.
> The upside
> > channel resistance is 1076 (approx.). If we get anywhere near
> there, I plan
> > on buying a bunch of Out of the Money Puts and hold on.
> >
> > I see a possible range for the S&P of 140 points and this
> translates to 1260
> > Dow points (approx.), I think. If we do get a run up to
> anywhere that
> > level, it might be worth it to 'take a shot'. This weeks S&P
> support
> > (again, I'm talking futures prices here) is 941 (approx.).
> Any breakout
> > below that number, even interday, could mean a target of 867
> (approx.).
> > That would be the equivalent of 981 Dow points down from the
> close Friday.
> >
> > These are just some of the numbers I'm reading from my charts.
> I haven't
> > looked at calculating a 'bottom'.
> >
> > Guy
> >
> >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve
> Karnish
> > > Sent: Friday, September 04, 1998 5:47 PM
> > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> > >
> > >
> > > Guy,
> > >
> > > I was watching "Mr. Rogers" on PBS this morning and he said:
> > > "Kids, can you spell: D I S S E M E N A T I O N "?
> > >
> > > If the funds were fully invested in July (not a big stretch
> of
> > > the imagination, but let's assume that they were only 90%
> > > invested) and we see month, after month, after month, of
> > > withdrawals...how will that affect the market? Duhhhhhhhh.
> > >
> > > Don't forget these "young guns" (funds managers that have
> never
> > > seen a bear market and in reality are investors and not
> traders)
> > > all get paid the bulk of their income on bonuses and they
> have
> > > refused to sell during this little 18% drawdown. "Hey man,
> we
> > > can't cash out now and identify a loss, that will destroy my
> > > year end bonus". Think about that whole scene.
> > >
> > > Notice that the same people that were raging bulls in mid
> July
> > > are now the ones who, like "Stan", think: I'm in it for the
> > > long run. Sure! The public will be selling their funds in
> > > record numbers right at the exact bottom. The same "8 year
> > > Wizard Investors" will be regurgitating every last share and
> vow
> > > "never" to get involved again. Isn't this Yogi's deja vu
> all
> > > over again? Please respond if you were around for the 22
> month
> > > bear in '73 or around for the after birth of '87 (Guy, I
> know
> > > you were there, and please do keep supplying us with
> neighborly
> > > stories).
> > >
> > > For the bulls in the crowd, I'd love to hear your arguments.
> > > Please don't make me giggle too much, I've already pulled a
> > > stomach muscle laughing "all the way to the bank" this week.
> > > Since the opening on Tuesday I've been long crude, long the
> Can
> > > $, and long wheat. Each made historic contract lows Monday
> or
> > > Tuesday and the commodity index made 21 year lows on Friday
> and
> > > then again on Monday.
> > >
> > > So, one last chance to collect your marbles and go home.
> Two
> > > weeks from today is a 'triple witching" day. Before we even
> get
> > > to the 18th of September, we must contend with my buddy
> > > Fibonacci. I alluded that Dino would break your kneecaps
> for
> > > $50. His ancient relative, Leonardo, will break your heart
> (and
> > > steal your wallet) in 55 days (from the highs). Tick,
> tick,
> > > tick, tick, tick, on our way to 55 and counting.
> > >
> > > Steve Karnish
> > > CCT
> > > ----------
> > > > From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > To: Metastock <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > Subject: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> > > > Date: Friday, September 04, 1998 2:44 PM
> > > >
> > > > This is a personal note about the market and various
> investor
> > > thoughts.
> > > > I'll call it the 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or
> SIMS
> > > <G>.
> > > >
> > > > Background..
> > > >
> > > > I have a friend, locally, who has been the poster boy for
> the
> > > bull market.
> > > > He was born into a family in South Central LA. For those
> of
> > > you who don't
> > > > know, that's the pits. I won't go into details of his
> youth,
> > > but he managed
> > > > to succeed in life, no help to family and friends. By the
> > > time he was 40,
> > > > he owned his home outright here (with an ocean view even).
> > > Married a cute
> > > > blond and has an 8 year old, who is my son's best friend
> (or
> > > second best, if
> > > > you ask my son <G>). In fact, that's how I originally met
> > > Stan. Through
> > > > his wife while playing Mr. Mom with my 18 month old. So
> I've
> > > known Stan for
> > > > 6 1/2 years.
> > > >
> > > > Stan's Market Philosophy
> > > >
> > > > Stan, based on his background, is not a spender. His
> wife is
> > > perfect for
> > > > him, because she can grind down the best of them <ggg>.
> > > Anyway, Stan is a
> > > > sales rep. Respected and liked in his field, I'm told.
> He
> > > currently makes
> > > > about $150k a year and saves $4-5k a month. And don't ask
> me
> > > how? We make
> > > > a lot more and save a lot less. <G>
> > > >
> > > > For as long as I've know Stan, he has been dumping all
> excess
> > > cash into
> > > > various funds. He stayed away from any funds with
> > > international exposures,
> > > > probably based upon his conservative bent. When we
> discussed
> > > the various
> > > > ups and downs of the market, the two of us are on
> different
> > > planets. His
> > > > response was, always, "so the market dropped." "I'm in it
> for
> > > the long pull
> > > > and in the next 18 years or so, it'll do OK." He felt
> that
> > > the last few
> > > > years were a little extreme, but that he would be able to
> > > maintain a 10% per
> > > > year growth. In my mind, Stan is the typical, modern
> investor
> > > with their
> > > > 401k investments.
> > > >
> > > > Last week, everything changed! Stan has decided to forgo
> > > putting any more
> > > > money into his various funds. He has started investing
> all of
> > > his new
> > > > savings in CD's and Bonds. Now, you have to understand
> that
> > > he is not
> > > > pulling any money out of his mutual funds, just not adding
> > > anything new.
> > > > For Stan, this is a MAJOR paradigm shift. And while he
> > > refuses to look at
> > > > historical facts in the market, when annual return was
> > > substantially less
> > > > than 10% a year, he has at least started to protect
> himself
> > > and not keep all
> > > > of his eggs in one basket.
> > > >
> > > > I sort of refer to this as the SIMS. If he represents the
> > > average American,
> > > > then we can look for Fund inflows to decrease while Bond
> funds
> > > and banks
> > > > should have increased inflows. Meaning more money
> available
> > > for lending and
> > > > no where to go.
> > > >
> > > > I wonder how long it'll take Stan to realize that all of
> his
> > > current fund
> > > > investments are exposed to risk? My dad told me a year
> ago,
> > > that the
> > > > NASDAQ will drop 50% before the public will figure out
> they're
> > > in a bear
> > > > market. I guess I'll keep watching Stan!
> > > >
> > > > Regards
> > > >
> > > > Guy
> > >
>
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