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Frans,
I picked up crude really cheap and every indicator I have is
screaming sell (I think that's why we use MetaStock...at least,
over the years, when the indicators say sell, I've learned to
take the signal). I might get "cute" and apply one of those
much discussed "exit strategies" that every one is talking about
lately on the list. But mostly, my secret to exiting is: if
most of the indicators are turning...get the hell out of the
position...sooner, rather than later. Crude has picked up 8%
off the bottom and the trend is your friend and all that...but,
isn't this a rally back to old resistance? Sure, we might go
through this resistance and sure the stock market might rally
back to old highs (right!), but I'm just seeing all the momentum
and relative strength saying it's over for a while. Picking
positions is easy, getting out without giving too much back from
your "high water mark" is the tough part. So, "dump 'em" and
"don't look back".
Thanks again for the international mail. I appreciate the
effort you took. I've started to play with the indicators.
It's been years since I sat across the table from Welles
Wilder...but I use his indicators everyday. I just haven't
really incorporated ADX in anything I do. I think there is
something here...that something could be somewhat subjective.
How does one teach subjective gut feelings? I look at many
objective indicators and then have to dig deep inside to pull
the trigger. I'm not sure that part can be defined or taught.
By the way, Frans, sorry you missed the BBQ. Smoked some birds
with some 100 year old cherry wood and grilled three types of
sweet corn that I grow. You're invited next year.
Steve Karnish
CCT
----------
> From: derksenf <derksenf@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> Date: Monday, September 07, 1998 3:06 AM
>
> Hi Steve,
>
>
> While you all are barbecueing and celebrating Labor Day we
poor Europeans must
> work.
> Looks like we have a start of a (suckers?) rally on our hands.
Should help
> Guy to position himself well, for the tick-tock, tick-tock big
one...
>
> You complained about your oil-girlfriend and you intend to cut
your
> courtship with her.
>
> I don't know much about oil but I saw the XOI index closing up
last friday
> by >4% !!
>
> You want to sell into this rally ?? Shouldn't you add to the
position ??
>
> Rgds,
>
> Frans
>
> At 19:33 6-09-98 -0700, you wrote:
> >Guy,
> >
> >Hopefully you saw through my thinly vailed, sarcastic Detroit
> >humor (Robin Williams, Lily Tomlin, Tim Allen, Gilda Radner,
and
> >of course Soupy), to see that I'm hanging on to my third week
in
> >September prediction (It was about as thinly vailed as
Madonna
> >dressed up as a nun...another fine Murder City comedian).
> >
> >Of course, you're only as good as your last prediction. This
is
> >for you Guy, the only person, on the list, who lived just
off
> >of Middlebelt (I lived five houses away 29525 W. Chicago).
You
> >must promise to keep this to yourself: All my "super secret"
> >calculations point to a rally to "bounce back" to at least
1015
> >- 1020 in the Sept. 500 and then I'm targeting 910 on the
> >downside.
> >
> >I seldom target anything. It seems when I do, I get
emotionally
> >attached to the outcome. These markets are real seducers.
If
> >you get to attached to an outcome, they'll break your heart.
> >
> >I almost "fell in love" with crude oil recently. We started
> >going out early last week. It was love at first sight. She
had
> >gone through tough times and I kinda "picked her up" near the
> >bottom of her life. Well, things just got better everyday
and I
> >thought it might last forever (you know, like a couple of
> >weeks). Then, on Friday, she started acting funny. She no
> >longer wanted go in the direction I wanted to go. It was
like
> >she followed me up to a point and then she resisted. It was
as
> >if she would go right up to a line in the sand and then
wouldn't
> >cross it. Well, I told her I'd take the weekend to
reevaluate
> >our relationship, but, after consulting a few close,
objective
> >friends, I'm dumping her on Monday. I don't want to get hurt
> >again. It's the best thing for both of us.
> >Sorry about pouring my heart out in public. Please don't
feel
> >bad for me, we had some real good times and I've been seeing
> >this girl from Canada on the side.
> >
> >Anyway, don't get caught with long positions right before the
> >"triplewitch" ... she'll put a spell on you! If I come close
to
> >any of these predictions, I'll be writing a book this winter:
> >"Leonardo Fibonacci: The Missing Years". If not, I might
> >write: "The Secret Rock and Roll Life of Robert Prechter".
> >
> >Hope your weekend is going good.
> >Howling at the full moon,
> >
> >Steve Karnish
> >CCT
> >
> >
> >----------
> >> From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> >> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >> Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> >> Date: Sunday, September 06, 1998 4:17 PM
> >>
> >> OK Steve
> >>
> >> Now I'm confused. What's the date???? October 5 or the
third
> >week of
> >> September???
> >>
> >> The market held our support price, basis S&P futures of
936.
> >The upside
> >> channel resistance is 1076 (approx.). If we get anywhere
near
> >there, I plan
> >> on buying a bunch of Out of the Money Puts and hold on.
> >>
> >> I see a possible range for the S&P of 140 points and this
> >translates to 1260
> >> Dow points (approx.), I think. If we do get a run up to
> >anywhere that
> >> level, it might be worth it to 'take a shot'. This weeks
S&P
> >support
> >> (again, I'm talking futures prices here) is 941 (approx.).
> >Any breakout
> >> below that number, even interday, could mean a target of
867
> >(approx.).
> >> That would be the equivalent of 981 Dow points down from
the
> >close Friday.
> >>
> >> These are just some of the numbers I'm reading from my
charts.
> > I haven't
> >> looked at calculating a 'bottom'.
> >>
> >> Guy
> >>
> >>
> >> > -----Original Message-----
> >> > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >> > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve
> >Karnish
> >> > Sent: Friday, September 04, 1998 5:47 PM
> >> > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >> > Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> >> >
> >> >
> >> > Guy,
> >> >
> >> > I was watching "Mr. Rogers" on PBS this morning and he
said:
> >> > "Kids, can you spell: D I S S E M E N A T I O N "?
> >> >
> >> > If the funds were fully invested in July (not a big
stretch
> >of
> >> > the imagination, but let's assume that they were only 90%
> >> > invested) and we see month, after month, after month, of
> >> > withdrawals...how will that affect the market?
Duhhhhhhhh.
> >> >
> >> > Don't forget these "young guns" (funds managers that have
> >never
> >> > seen a bear market and in reality are investors and not
> >traders)
> >> > all get paid the bulk of their income on bonuses and they
> >have
> >> > refused to sell during this little 18% drawdown. "Hey
man,
> >we
> >> > can't cash out now and identify a loss, that will destroy
my
> >> > year end bonus". Think about that whole scene.
> >> >
> >> > Notice that the same people that were raging bulls in mid
> >July
> >> > are now the ones who, like "Stan", think: I'm in it for
the
> >> > long run. Sure! The public will be selling their funds
in
> >> > record numbers right at the exact bottom. The same "8
year
> >> > Wizard Investors" will be regurgitating every last share
and
> >vow
> >> > "never" to get involved again. Isn't this Yogi's deja vu
> >all
> >> > over again? Please respond if you were around for the 22
> >month
> >> > bear in '73 or around for the after birth of '87 (Guy, I
> >know
> >> > you were there, and please do keep supplying us with
> >neighborly
> >> > stories).
> >> >
> >> > For the bulls in the crowd, I'd love to hear your
arguments.
> >> > Please don't make me giggle too much, I've already pulled
a
> >> > stomach muscle laughing "all the way to the bank" this
week.
> >> > Since the opening on Tuesday I've been long crude, long
the
> >Can
> >> > $, and long wheat. Each made historic contract lows
Monday
> >or
> >> > Tuesday and the commodity index made 21 year lows on
Friday
> >and
> >> > then again on Monday.
> >> >
> >> > So, one last chance to collect your marbles and go home.
> >Two
> >> > weeks from today is a 'triple witching" day. Before we
even
> >get
> >> > to the 18th of September, we must contend with my buddy
> >> > Fibonacci. I alluded that Dino would break your kneecaps
> >for
> >> > $50. His ancient relative, Leonardo, will break your
heart
> >(and
> >> > steal your wallet) in 55 days (from the highs). Tick,
> >tick,
> >> > tick, tick, tick, on our way to 55 and counting.
> >> >
> >> > Steve Karnish
> >> > CCT
> >> > ----------
> >> > > From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> >> > > To: Metastock <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >> > > Subject: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> >> > > Date: Friday, September 04, 1998 2:44 PM
> >> > >
> >> > > This is a personal note about the market and various
> >investor
> >> > thoughts.
> >> > > I'll call it the 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment
or
> >SIMS
> >> > <G>.
> >> > >
> >> > > Background..
> >> > >
> >> > > I have a friend, locally, who has been the poster boy
for
> >the
> >> > bull market.
> >> > > He was born into a family in South Central LA. For
those
> >of
> >> > you who don't
> >> > > know, that's the pits. I won't go into details of his
> >youth,
> >> > but he managed
> >> > > to succeed in life, no help to family and friends. By
the
> >> > time he was 40,
> >> > > he owned his home outright here (with an ocean view
even).
> >> > Married a cute
> >> > > blond and has an 8 year old, who is my son's best
friend
> >(or
> >> > second best, if
> >> > > you ask my son <G>). In fact, that's how I originally
met
> >> > Stan. Through
> >> > > his wife while playing Mr. Mom with my 18 month old.
So
> >I've
> >> > known Stan for
> >> > > 6 1/2 years.
> >> > >
> >> > > Stan's Market Philosophy
> >> > >
> >> > > Stan, based on his background, is not a spender. His
> >wife is
> >> > perfect for
> >> > > him, because she can grind down the best of them <ggg>.
> >> > Anyway, Stan is a
> >> > > sales rep. Respected and liked in his field, I'm told.
> >He
> >> > currently makes
> >> > > about $150k a year and saves $4-5k a month. And don't
ask
> >me
> >> > how? We make
> >> > > a lot more and save a lot less. <G>
> >> > >
> >> > > For as long as I've know Stan, he has been dumping all
> >excess
> >> > cash into
> >> > > various funds. He stayed away from any funds with
> >> > international exposures,
> >> > > probably based upon his conservative bent. When we
> >discussed
> >> > the various
> >> > > ups and downs of the market, the two of us are on
> >different
> >> > planets. His
> >> > > response was, always, "so the market dropped." "I'm in
it
> >for
> >> > the long pull
> >> > > and in the next 18 years or so, it'll do OK." He felt
> >that
> >> > the last few
> >> > > years were a little extreme, but that he would be able
to
> >> > maintain a 10% per
> >> > > year growth. In my mind, Stan is the typical, modern
> >investor
> >> > with their
> >> > > 401k investments.
> >> > >
> >> > > Last week, everything changed! Stan has decided to
forgo
> >> > putting any more
> >> > > money into his various funds. He has started investing
> >all of
> >> > his new
> >> > > savings in CD's and Bonds. Now, you have to understand
> >that
> >> > he is not
> >> > > pulling any money out of his mutual funds, just not
adding
> >> > anything new.
> >> > > For Stan, this is a MAJOR paradigm shift. And while he
> >> > refuses to look at
> >> > > historical facts in the market, when annual return was
> >> > substantially less
> >> > > than 10% a year, he has at least started to protect
> >himself
> >> > and not keep all
> >> > > of his eggs in one basket.
> >> > >
> >> > > I sort of refer to this as the SIMS. If he represents
the
> >> > average American,
> >> > > then we can look for Fund inflows to decrease while
Bond
> >funds
> >> > and banks
> >> > > should have increased inflows. Meaning more money
> >available
> >> > for lending and
> >> > > no where to go.
> >> > >
> >> > > I wonder how long it'll take Stan to realize that all
of
> >his
> >> > current fund
> >> > > investments are exposed to risk? My dad told me a
year
> >ago,
> >> > that the
> >> > > NASDAQ will drop 50% before the public will figure out
> >they're
> >> > in a bear
> >> > > market. I guess I'll keep watching Stan!
> >> > >
> >> > > Regards
> >> > >
> >> > > Guy
> >> >
> >
> >
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