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Guy,
Hopefully you saw through my thinly vailed, sarcastic Detroit
humor (Robin Williams, Lily Tomlin, Tim Allen, Gilda Radner, and
of course Soupy), to see that I'm hanging on to my third week in
September prediction (It was about as thinly vailed as Madonna
dressed up as a nun...another fine Murder City comedian).
Of course, you're only as good as your last prediction. This is
for you Guy, the only person, on the list, who lived just off
of Middlebelt (I lived five houses away 29525 W. Chicago). You
must promise to keep this to yourself: All my "super secret"
calculations point to a rally to "bounce back" to at least 1015
- 1020 in the Sept. 500 and then I'm targeting 910 on the
downside.
I seldom target anything. It seems when I do, I get emotionally
attached to the outcome. These markets are real seducers. If
you get to attached to an outcome, they'll break your heart.
I almost "fell in love" with crude oil recently. We started
going out early last week. It was love at first sight. She had
gone through tough times and I kinda "picked her up" near the
bottom of her life. Well, things just got better everyday and I
thought it might last forever (you know, like a couple of
weeks). Then, on Friday, she started acting funny. She no
longer wanted go in the direction I wanted to go. It was like
she followed me up to a point and then she resisted. It was as
if she would go right up to a line in the sand and then wouldn't
cross it. Well, I told her I'd take the weekend to reevaluate
our relationship, but, after consulting a few close, objective
friends, I'm dumping her on Monday. I don't want to get hurt
again. It's the best thing for both of us.
Sorry about pouring my heart out in public. Please don't feel
bad for me, we had some real good times and I've been seeing
this girl from Canada on the side.
Anyway, don't get caught with long positions right before the
"triplewitch" ... she'll put a spell on you! If I come close to
any of these predictions, I'll be writing a book this winter:
"Leonardo Fibonacci: The Missing Years". If not, I might
write: "The Secret Rock and Roll Life of Robert Prechter".
Hope your weekend is going good.
Howling at the full moon,
Steve Karnish
CCT
----------
> From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> Date: Sunday, September 06, 1998 4:17 PM
>
> OK Steve
>
> Now I'm confused. What's the date???? October 5 or the third
week of
> September???
>
> The market held our support price, basis S&P futures of 936.
The upside
> channel resistance is 1076 (approx.). If we get anywhere near
there, I plan
> on buying a bunch of Out of the Money Puts and hold on.
>
> I see a possible range for the S&P of 140 points and this
translates to 1260
> Dow points (approx.), I think. If we do get a run up to
anywhere that
> level, it might be worth it to 'take a shot'. This weeks S&P
support
> (again, I'm talking futures prices here) is 941 (approx.).
Any breakout
> below that number, even interday, could mean a target of 867
(approx.).
> That would be the equivalent of 981 Dow points down from the
close Friday.
>
> These are just some of the numbers I'm reading from my charts.
I haven't
> looked at calculating a 'bottom'.
>
> Guy
>
>
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve
Karnish
> > Sent: Friday, September 04, 1998 5:47 PM
> > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> >
> >
> > Guy,
> >
> > I was watching "Mr. Rogers" on PBS this morning and he said:
> > "Kids, can you spell: D I S S E M E N A T I O N "?
> >
> > If the funds were fully invested in July (not a big stretch
of
> > the imagination, but let's assume that they were only 90%
> > invested) and we see month, after month, after month, of
> > withdrawals...how will that affect the market? Duhhhhhhhh.
> >
> > Don't forget these "young guns" (funds managers that have
never
> > seen a bear market and in reality are investors and not
traders)
> > all get paid the bulk of their income on bonuses and they
have
> > refused to sell during this little 18% drawdown. "Hey man,
we
> > can't cash out now and identify a loss, that will destroy my
> > year end bonus". Think about that whole scene.
> >
> > Notice that the same people that were raging bulls in mid
July
> > are now the ones who, like "Stan", think: I'm in it for the
> > long run. Sure! The public will be selling their funds in
> > record numbers right at the exact bottom. The same "8 year
> > Wizard Investors" will be regurgitating every last share and
vow
> > "never" to get involved again. Isn't this Yogi's deja vu
all
> > over again? Please respond if you were around for the 22
month
> > bear in '73 or around for the after birth of '87 (Guy, I
know
> > you were there, and please do keep supplying us with
neighborly
> > stories).
> >
> > For the bulls in the crowd, I'd love to hear your arguments.
> > Please don't make me giggle too much, I've already pulled a
> > stomach muscle laughing "all the way to the bank" this week.
> > Since the opening on Tuesday I've been long crude, long the
Can
> > $, and long wheat. Each made historic contract lows Monday
or
> > Tuesday and the commodity index made 21 year lows on Friday
and
> > then again on Monday.
> >
> > So, one last chance to collect your marbles and go home.
Two
> > weeks from today is a 'triple witching" day. Before we even
get
> > to the 18th of September, we must contend with my buddy
> > Fibonacci. I alluded that Dino would break your kneecaps
for
> > $50. His ancient relative, Leonardo, will break your heart
(and
> > steal your wallet) in 55 days (from the highs). Tick,
tick,
> > tick, tick, tick, on our way to 55 and counting.
> >
> > Steve Karnish
> > CCT
> > ----------
> > > From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > To: Metastock <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Subject: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> > > Date: Friday, September 04, 1998 2:44 PM
> > >
> > > This is a personal note about the market and various
investor
> > thoughts.
> > > I'll call it the 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or
SIMS
> > <G>.
> > >
> > > Background..
> > >
> > > I have a friend, locally, who has been the poster boy for
the
> > bull market.
> > > He was born into a family in South Central LA. For those
of
> > you who don't
> > > know, that's the pits. I won't go into details of his
youth,
> > but he managed
> > > to succeed in life, no help to family and friends. By the
> > time he was 40,
> > > he owned his home outright here (with an ocean view even).
> > Married a cute
> > > blond and has an 8 year old, who is my son's best friend
(or
> > second best, if
> > > you ask my son <G>). In fact, that's how I originally met
> > Stan. Through
> > > his wife while playing Mr. Mom with my 18 month old. So
I've
> > known Stan for
> > > 6 1/2 years.
> > >
> > > Stan's Market Philosophy
> > >
> > > Stan, based on his background, is not a spender. His
wife is
> > perfect for
> > > him, because she can grind down the best of them <ggg>.
> > Anyway, Stan is a
> > > sales rep. Respected and liked in his field, I'm told.
He
> > currently makes
> > > about $150k a year and saves $4-5k a month. And don't ask
me
> > how? We make
> > > a lot more and save a lot less. <G>
> > >
> > > For as long as I've know Stan, he has been dumping all
excess
> > cash into
> > > various funds. He stayed away from any funds with
> > international exposures,
> > > probably based upon his conservative bent. When we
discussed
> > the various
> > > ups and downs of the market, the two of us are on
different
> > planets. His
> > > response was, always, "so the market dropped." "I'm in it
for
> > the long pull
> > > and in the next 18 years or so, it'll do OK." He felt
that
> > the last few
> > > years were a little extreme, but that he would be able to
> > maintain a 10% per
> > > year growth. In my mind, Stan is the typical, modern
investor
> > with their
> > > 401k investments.
> > >
> > > Last week, everything changed! Stan has decided to forgo
> > putting any more
> > > money into his various funds. He has started investing
all of
> > his new
> > > savings in CD's and Bonds. Now, you have to understand
that
> > he is not
> > > pulling any money out of his mutual funds, just not adding
> > anything new.
> > > For Stan, this is a MAJOR paradigm shift. And while he
> > refuses to look at
> > > historical facts in the market, when annual return was
> > substantially less
> > > than 10% a year, he has at least started to protect
himself
> > and not keep all
> > > of his eggs in one basket.
> > >
> > > I sort of refer to this as the SIMS. If he represents the
> > average American,
> > > then we can look for Fund inflows to decrease while Bond
funds
> > and banks
> > > should have increased inflows. Meaning more money
available
> > for lending and
> > > no where to go.
> > >
> > > I wonder how long it'll take Stan to realize that all of
his
> > current fund
> > > investments are exposed to risk? My dad told me a year
ago,
> > that the
> > > NASDAQ will drop 50% before the public will figure out
they're
> > in a bear
> > > market. I guess I'll keep watching Stan!
> > >
> > > Regards
> > >
> > > Guy
> >
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