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Bob
Guy Tann wrote:
>
>
> DickOn the contrary, our system is definitely not a trend type
> system. Our worst years in the last 16 years was 1995, I think (would
> have to look it up), where it was up 100%. We are contrarian
> traders. Strictly short term. This is the first time we've been out
> of a market this long in 16 years. If a move goes against us, we get
> stopped out and never trade in that same direction again. We wait for
> the opposite signal. The reason is that we play probabilities. We
> know that we're going to be right 75% of the time (at least over the
> last 16 years).If we get stopped out because the market has gone x
> points against us, we know that the odds are that we will lose money
> on that trade and not to chase it. Since we were wrong on the
> direction of that trade, we assume that all following signals in that
> same direction will be wrong. We were stopped out of a long position
> in one of the giant market swings on 7/23. We did have a sell signal,
> however our system requires something we call a contrary. That's a
> measure of the strength of the price move that day. So for us to go
> short (remember we're contrarians), we need an up day, either the day
> of the signal or the previous day. The contrary we got was too high
> and therefore we couldn't go short and needed to wait. We're still
> waiting <G>.Just didn't want to leave the impression that we have a
> bull or trend following system. Our system is based upon daily price
> movement.Emotionally, I am probably more comfortable as a bear. But
> that's my personality. Regardless, we just trade our signals and
> don't really care about the direction, just that we get a certain
> amount of activity. RegardsGuy
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Dick
> Simmons
> Sent: Tuesday, September 08, 1998 1:09 AM
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: Weekly Pick
>
> Hi John, The only indicator that will work in bull trends,
> bear trends and consolidations is that of cycles. Look at
> poor old Guy, has a great system for bull markets but it is
> not working at present. Cycles go on and on. Regards,Dick.
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: John Hunter <jhunter@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: Tuesday, 8 September 1998 1:31
> Subject: Re: Weekly Pick
> Jim,Your confusion is shared by many I believe,
> certainly by myself. I have tried to address it
> in the past on this forum with no positive
> outcome and you have prompted me to try once
> again. To me the answer to this question is the
> most important reason why anyone would use
> Metastock. Take your own system, as I have come to
> understand it from your many very informative
> postings. When you see a breakout from a tend
> occurring what indicator or combination of
> indicators could be used to reliably predictive
> that the trend has ended and the stock/commodity
> price will move in a new direction. I have noted
> you say in a number of postings that you are
> forced to wait for sufficient information (ie days
> of trading) to come in before you can redraw the
> new price direction.I have played around with a
> number of indicators, and different combinations
> of indicators, with the object of finding a system
> that will reliably signal that and end to the
> current trend is about to come to an end. For
> example the daily DOW chart had a stochastic
> crossover, indicating a sell, in late July and
> this was confirmed by a moving average crossover
> shortly after this. (These can be viewed from the
> http://www.barchart.com page.) Now I know it is
> not going to be that easy and so your confusion
> and my question to the group. What indicators are
> useful in predicting the end of a
> trend?JH -----Original Message-----
> From: Jim Greening <JimGinVA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: Metastock <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: Sunday, 6 September 1998 4:42
> Subject: Weekly Pick
>
>
> All, We got the drop that I was
> expecting this week, but now I'm
> confused. Are we in the process of
> completing a typical four month bull
> market 20% correction or is this the
> start of a bear market? I was
> definitely bearish last week as all the
> indices were breaking intermediate and
> long term up trends which confirmed a
> down trend was in process. That's still
> the same this week, but I'm getting
> mixed
> signals.......snip..........snip..........snip............snip.... The
> internet stocks patterns would support
> the bear market theory. Since I'm
> uncertain, my options at this point are
> to either do nothing or since I'm all
> cash except for my WCOM put options, I
> could nibble in both directions.
> Nibbling is more fun and I have the
> large cash position for a cushion, so
> that's what I'm going to do
> <G>.......snip..........snip...........snip..........snip...... To
> me this looks like a typical long term
> trend reversal pattern. I constructed a
> standard deviation Short Term Down Trend
> Channel (STDTC) with the deviation set
> at 2 from the 8/19/98 high to the 9/1/98
> low and extended it to the right. The
> top of the STDTC is at 30 1/2 and the
> bottom of the channel can't be reached
> since it is below zero. The
> fundamentals are what you would expect
> of an internet stock, 229% sales growth,
> but negative earnings. It could do
> great in a bull market, but should get
> killed in a bear market.
>
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