|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
<x-html><!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD W3 HTML//EN">
<HTML>
<HEAD>
<META content=text/html;charset=iso-8859-1 http-equiv=Content-Type>
<META content='"MSHTML 4.72.2106.6"' name=GENERATOR>
</HEAD>
<BODY>
<DIV><SPAN class=860134723-07091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2>And if
it's wet and yellow, it means the same dog that walked by my portfolio, walked
by your string :)</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=860134723-07091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=860134723-07091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2>Regards</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=860134723-07091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=860134723-07091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2>Guy</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=860134723-07091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff solid 2px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">
<DIV class=OutlookMessageHeader><FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>
owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]<B>On
Behalf Of</B> Dick Simmons<BR><B>Sent:</B> Monday, September 07, 1998 1:20
AM<BR><B>To:</B> metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx<BR><B>Subject:</B>
Weatherman.<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Hi Steve,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>You wrote in part:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> 2. You don't need a<BR></DIV>
<DIV>>weatherman to know which way the wind blows </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Of course you don't.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Keep it simple. All you need is a piece of
string. If it is moving, the wind is blowing. If it is wet it is
raining.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Regards,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Dick.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Mon Sep 07 18:45:18 1998
Received: from 204.246.137.2 (204.246.137.2)
by mail05.rapidsite.net (RS ver 0.3) with SMTP id 21138
for <neal@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>; Mon, 7 Sep 1998 21:19:41 -0400 (EDT)
Received: (from majordom@xxxxxxxxx)
by listserv.equis.com (8.8.7/8.8.7) id SAA00639
for metastock-outgoing; Mon, 7 Sep 1998 18:06:41 -0600
X-Authentication-Warning: listserv.equis.com: majordom set sender to owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx using -f
Received: from freeze.metastock.com (freeze.metastock.com [204.246.137.5])
by listserv.equis.com (8.8.7/8.8.7) with ESMTP id SAA00633
for <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>; Mon, 7 Sep 1998 18:06:35 -0600
Received: from mail-gw3.pacbell.net (mail-gw3.pacbell.net [206.13.28.55])
by freeze.metastock.com (8.8.5/8.8.5) with ESMTP id SAA10213
for <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>; Mon, 7 Sep 1998 18:17:19 -0600 (MDT)
Received: from p400 (ppp-207-215-163-246.grdn01.pacbell.net [207.215.163.246]) by mail-gw3.pacbell.net (8.8.8/8.7.1+antispam) with SMTP id RAA13094 for <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>; Mon, 7 Sep 1998 17:09:06 -0700 (PDT)
From: "Guy Tann" <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
Date: Mon, 7 Sep 1998 17:07:53 -0700
Message-ID: <001b01bddabc$b951e220$f6a3d7cf@xxxx>
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain;
charset="iso-8859-1"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
X-Priority: 3 (Normal)
X-MSMail-Priority: Normal
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook 8.5, Build 4.71.2377.0
X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V4.72.2120.0
In-Reply-To: <001001bdda8b$5cb1afe0$30662599@xxxx>
Importance: Normal
Sender: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Precedence: bulk
Reply-To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
X-Loop-Detect: 1
Jim
While I haven't seen a bottoming out of the market, it did hit one of my
support points and bounce up. Basis S&P futures, we could get a sizable
move up and still be in a downward trending market.
That's what makes this fun, trying to figure out where we're really going.
I'm sort of looking for a correction back up to unload the rest of my dogs
at this time and watch for an opportunity to buy some OTM Puts.
Regards
Guy
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Jim Greening
> Sent: Monday, September 07, 1998 9:59 AM
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>
>
> Guy,
> I certainly agree that the current trend is down. What I'm
> uncertain about is whether it is bottoming or just gathering steam. I
> guess only time will tell and the smart thing to do is to be ready to
> take advantage of either.
> I think my basic problem is that I just get itchy sitting on a large
> cash position <G>.
>
> Jim
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: Sunday, September 06, 1998 6:59 PM
> Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>
>
> >Jim
> >
> >I don't think that the Fed will so anything with rates until past the
> time
> >when the cut would be helpful, if the past has anything to offer <G>.
> >
> >My thought is that we have entered a downward trending market for a
> time and
> >until some of the basic economics change, I don't see much hope for a
> >resumption of the bull move, at this time.
> >
> >Now this doesn't mean that I'm calling for the bear of all markets,
> etc.,
> >just that we are going to be in for a very rough ride, both up and
> down. We
> >are normally able to call the major market turning points, however
> our
> >system missed this one. Actually, since we are contrarians, what I
> should
> >be saying is that most markets have an upside (or downside) move that
> lets
> >us get short or long. In this market, our indicator told us the move
> up was
> >'too powerful' to implement our sales and we needed to wait. Wrong
> answer
> ><ggg>.
> >
> >While we're not funnymentalists, I do think that some of the
> underpinnings
> >of the market have changed. I am in the process of modifying our
> trading
> >rules, from ones that assumed an upward trend, to one that assumes a
> >downward trend.
> >
> >Right now, the floor traders must be raking it in with these 300/400
> point
> >swing days.
> >
> >Regards
> >
> >Guy
> >
> >
> >> -----Original Message-----
> >> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Jim Greening
> >> Sent: Sunday, September 06, 1998 9:24 AM
> >> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >> Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> >>
> >>
> >> Guy,
> >> I think a Fed rate cut would goose the market for at least a
> week
> >> or two. However, I don't think we will get one unless the market
> goes
> >> into free fall next week and I don't really expect that to happen.
> >>
> >> Jim
> >> -----Original Message-----
> >> From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> >> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >> Date: Saturday, September 05, 1998 9:33 PM
> >> Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> >>
> >>
> >> >Steve
> >> >
> >> >And I was impressed when my 8 year old learned to spell
> echolocation
> >> when
> >> >studying whales <G>.
> >> >
> >> >I'm still waiting for this market to settle down and my system to
> get
> >> back
> >> >on track. We haven't been out of the market this long for years.
> In
> >> fact,
> >> >we're going to add some more capital to play this from the
> downside
> >> as
> >> >opposed to buying on dips. I want to shovel it to them on
> rallies.
> >> >
> >> >Did you save the article from the Thursday (?) Journal regarding
> all
> >> the
> >> >'bear' markets for the last umpteen years, how long to the trough
> and
> >> number
> >> >of years to regain the market position and price when they took a
> >> dump?
> >> >
> >> >We're still looking for 6000 on the DOW, but I'm really hoping for
> a
> >> rally
> >> >to get in. Maybe Greenspan will cut interest rates by a quarter
> >> point.
> >> >WOW! Like it matters...
> >> >
> >> >Regards
> >> >
> >> >Guy
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >> -----Original Message-----
> >> >> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >> >> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve Karnish
> >> >> Sent: Friday, September 04, 1998 5:47 PM
> >> >> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >> >> Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >> Guy,
> >> >>
> >> >> I was watching "Mr. Rogers" on PBS this morning and he said:
> >> >> "Kids, can you spell: D I S S E M E N A T I O N "?
> >> >>
> >> >> If the funds were fully invested in July (not a big stretch of
> >> >> the imagination, but let's assume that they were only 90%
> >> >> invested) and we see month, after month, after month, of
> >> >> withdrawals...how will that affect the market? Duhhhhhhhh.
> >> >>
> >> >> Don't forget these "young guns" (funds managers that have never
> >> >> seen a bear market and in reality are investors and not traders)
> >> >> all get paid the bulk of their income on bonuses and they have
> >> >> refused to sell during this little 18% drawdown. "Hey man, we
> >> >> can't cash out now and identify a loss, that will destroy my
> >> >> year end bonus". Think about that whole scene.
> >> >>
> >> >> Notice that the same people that were raging bulls in mid July
> >> >> are now the ones who, like "Stan", think: I'm in it for the
> >> >> long run. Sure! The public will be selling their funds in
> >> >> record numbers right at the exact bottom. The same "8 year
> >> >> Wizard Investors" will be regurgitating every last share and vow
> >> >> "never" to get involved again. Isn't this Yogi's deja vu all
> >> >> over again? Please respond if you were around for the 22 month
> >> >> bear in '73 or around for the after birth of '87 (Guy, I know
> >> >> you were there, and please do keep supplying us with neighborly
> >> >> stories).
> >> >>
> >> >> For the bulls in the crowd, I'd love to hear your arguments.
> >> >> Please don't make me giggle too much, I've already pulled a
> >> >> stomach muscle laughing "all the way to the bank" this week.
> >> >> Since the opening on Tuesday I've been long crude, long the Can
> >> >> $, and long wheat. Each made historic contract lows Monday or
> >> >> Tuesday and the commodity index made 21 year lows on Friday and
> >> >> then again on Monday.
> >> >>
> >> >> So, one last chance to collect your marbles and go home. Two
> >> >> weeks from today is a 'triple witching" day. Before we even get
> >> >> to the 18th of September, we must contend with my buddy
> >> >> Fibonacci. I alluded that Dino would break your kneecaps for
> >> >> $50. His ancient relative, Leonardo, will break your heart (and
> >> >> steal your wallet) in 55 days (from the highs). Tick, tick,
> >> >> tick, tick, tick, on our way to 55 and counting.
> >> >>
> >> >> Steve Karnish
> >> >> CCT
> >> >> ----------
> >> >> > From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> >> >> > To: Metastock <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >> >> > Subject: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> >> >> > Date: Friday, September 04, 1998 2:44 PM
> >> >> >
> >> >> > This is a personal note about the market and various investor
> >> >> thoughts.
> >> >> > I'll call it the 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> >> >> <G>.
> >> >> >
> >> >> > Background..
> >> >> >
> >> >> > I have a friend, locally, who has been the poster boy for the
> >> >> bull market.
> >> >> > He was born into a family in South Central LA. For those of
> >> >> you who don't
> >> >> > know, that's the pits. I won't go into details of his youth,
> >> >> but he managed
> >> >> > to succeed in life, no help to family and friends. By the
> >> >> time he was 40,
> >> >> > he owned his home outright here (with an ocean view even).
> >> >> Married a cute
> >> >> > blond and has an 8 year old, who is my son's best friend (or
> >> >> second best, if
> >> >> > you ask my son <G>). In fact, that's how I originally met
> >> >> Stan. Through
> >> >> > his wife while playing Mr. Mom with my 18 month old. So I've
> >> >> known Stan for
> >> >> > 6 1/2 years.
> >> >> >
> >> >> > Stan's Market Philosophy
> >> >> >
> >> >> > Stan, based on his background, is not a spender. His wife is
> >> >> perfect for
> >> >> > him, because she can grind down the best of them <ggg>.
> >> >> Anyway, Stan is a
> >> >> > sales rep. Respected and liked in his field, I'm told. He
> >> >> currently makes
> >> >> > about $150k a year and saves $4-5k a month. And don't ask me
> >> >> how? We make
> >> >> > a lot more and save a lot less. <G>
> >> >> >
> >> >> > For as long as I've know Stan, he has been dumping all excess
> >> >> cash into
> >> >> > various funds. He stayed away from any funds with
> >> >> international exposures,
> >> >> > probably based upon his conservative bent. When we discussed
> >> >> the various
> >> >> > ups and downs of the market, the two of us are on different
> >> >> planets. His
> >> >> > response was, always, "so the market dropped." "I'm in it for
> >> >> the long pull
> >> >> > and in the next 18 years or so, it'll do OK." He felt that
> >> >> the last few
> >> >> > years were a little extreme, but that he would be able to
> >> >> maintain a 10% per
> >> >> > year growth. In my mind, Stan is the typical, modern investor
> >> >> with their
> >> >> > 401k investments.
> >> >> >
> >> >> > Last week, everything changed! Stan has decided to forgo
> >> >> putting any more
> >> >> > money into his various funds. He has started investing all of
> >> >> his new
> >> >> > savings in CD's and Bonds. Now, you have to understand that
> >> >> he is not
> >> >> > pulling any money out of his mutual funds, just not adding
> >> >> anything new.
> >> >> > For Stan, this is a MAJOR paradigm shift. And while he
> >> >> refuses to look at
> >> >> > historical facts in the market, when annual return was
> >> >> substantially less
> >> >> > than 10% a year, he has at least started to protect himself
> >> >> and not keep all
> >> >> > of his eggs in one basket.
> >> >> >
> >> >> > I sort of refer to this as the SIMS. If he represents the
> >> >> average American,
> >> >> > then we can look for Fund inflows to decrease while Bond funds
> >> >> and banks
> >> >> > should have increased inflows. Meaning more money available
> >> >> for lending and
> >> >> > no where to go.
> >> >> >
> >> >> > I wonder how long it'll take Stan to realize that all of his
> >> >> current fund
> >> >> > investments are exposed to risk? My dad told me a year ago,
> >> >> that the
> >> >> > NASDAQ will drop 50% before the public will figure out they're
> >> >> in a bear
> >> >> > market. I guess I'll keep watching Stan!
> >> >> >
> >> >> > Regards
> >> >> >
> >> >> > Guy
> >> >>
> >> >
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >
>
>
>
|