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Guy,
I certainly agree that the current trend is down. What I'm
uncertain about is whether it is bottoming or just gathering steam. I
guess only time will tell and the smart thing to do is to be ready to
take advantage of either.
I think my basic problem is that I just get itchy sitting on a large
cash position <G>.
Jim
-----Original Message-----
From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Sunday, September 06, 1998 6:59 PM
Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>Jim
>
>I don't think that the Fed will so anything with rates until past the
time
>when the cut would be helpful, if the past has anything to offer <G>.
>
>My thought is that we have entered a downward trending market for a
time and
>until some of the basic economics change, I don't see much hope for a
>resumption of the bull move, at this time.
>
>Now this doesn't mean that I'm calling for the bear of all markets,
etc.,
>just that we are going to be in for a very rough ride, both up and
down. We
>are normally able to call the major market turning points, however
our
>system missed this one. Actually, since we are contrarians, what I
should
>be saying is that most markets have an upside (or downside) move that
lets
>us get short or long. In this market, our indicator told us the move
up was
>'too powerful' to implement our sales and we needed to wait. Wrong
answer
><ggg>.
>
>While we're not funnymentalists, I do think that some of the
underpinnings
>of the market have changed. I am in the process of modifying our
trading
>rules, from ones that assumed an upward trend, to one that assumes a
>downward trend.
>
>Right now, the floor traders must be raking it in with these 300/400
point
>swing days.
>
>Regards
>
>Guy
>
>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Jim Greening
>> Sent: Sunday, September 06, 1998 9:24 AM
>> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>>
>>
>> Guy,
>> I think a Fed rate cut would goose the market for at least a
week
>> or two. However, I don't think we will get one unless the market
goes
>> into free fall next week and I don't really expect that to happen.
>>
>> Jim
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> Date: Saturday, September 05, 1998 9:33 PM
>> Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>>
>>
>> >Steve
>> >
>> >And I was impressed when my 8 year old learned to spell
echolocation
>> when
>> >studying whales <G>.
>> >
>> >I'm still waiting for this market to settle down and my system to
get
>> back
>> >on track. We haven't been out of the market this long for years.
In
>> fact,
>> >we're going to add some more capital to play this from the
downside
>> as
>> >opposed to buying on dips. I want to shovel it to them on
rallies.
>> >
>> >Did you save the article from the Thursday (?) Journal regarding
all
>> the
>> >'bear' markets for the last umpteen years, how long to the trough
and
>> number
>> >of years to regain the market position and price when they took a
>> dump?
>> >
>> >We're still looking for 6000 on the DOW, but I'm really hoping for
a
>> rally
>> >to get in. Maybe Greenspan will cut interest rates by a quarter
>> point.
>> >WOW! Like it matters...
>> >
>> >Regards
>> >
>> >Guy
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >> -----Original Message-----
>> >> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> >> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve Karnish
>> >> Sent: Friday, September 04, 1998 5:47 PM
>> >> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> >> Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> Guy,
>> >>
>> >> I was watching "Mr. Rogers" on PBS this morning and he said:
>> >> "Kids, can you spell: D I S S E M E N A T I O N "?
>> >>
>> >> If the funds were fully invested in July (not a big stretch of
>> >> the imagination, but let's assume that they were only 90%
>> >> invested) and we see month, after month, after month, of
>> >> withdrawals...how will that affect the market? Duhhhhhhhh.
>> >>
>> >> Don't forget these "young guns" (funds managers that have never
>> >> seen a bear market and in reality are investors and not traders)
>> >> all get paid the bulk of their income on bonuses and they have
>> >> refused to sell during this little 18% drawdown. "Hey man, we
>> >> can't cash out now and identify a loss, that will destroy my
>> >> year end bonus". Think about that whole scene.
>> >>
>> >> Notice that the same people that were raging bulls in mid July
>> >> are now the ones who, like "Stan", think: I'm in it for the
>> >> long run. Sure! The public will be selling their funds in
>> >> record numbers right at the exact bottom. The same "8 year
>> >> Wizard Investors" will be regurgitating every last share and vow
>> >> "never" to get involved again. Isn't this Yogi's deja vu all
>> >> over again? Please respond if you were around for the 22 month
>> >> bear in '73 or around for the after birth of '87 (Guy, I know
>> >> you were there, and please do keep supplying us with neighborly
>> >> stories).
>> >>
>> >> For the bulls in the crowd, I'd love to hear your arguments.
>> >> Please don't make me giggle too much, I've already pulled a
>> >> stomach muscle laughing "all the way to the bank" this week.
>> >> Since the opening on Tuesday I've been long crude, long the Can
>> >> $, and long wheat. Each made historic contract lows Monday or
>> >> Tuesday and the commodity index made 21 year lows on Friday and
>> >> then again on Monday.
>> >>
>> >> So, one last chance to collect your marbles and go home. Two
>> >> weeks from today is a 'triple witching" day. Before we even get
>> >> to the 18th of September, we must contend with my buddy
>> >> Fibonacci. I alluded that Dino would break your kneecaps for
>> >> $50. His ancient relative, Leonardo, will break your heart (and
>> >> steal your wallet) in 55 days (from the highs). Tick, tick,
>> >> tick, tick, tick, on our way to 55 and counting.
>> >>
>> >> Steve Karnish
>> >> CCT
>> >> ----------
>> >> > From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>> >> > To: Metastock <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> >> > Subject: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>> >> > Date: Friday, September 04, 1998 2:44 PM
>> >> >
>> >> > This is a personal note about the market and various investor
>> >> thoughts.
>> >> > I'll call it the 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>> >> <G>.
>> >> >
>> >> > Background..
>> >> >
>> >> > I have a friend, locally, who has been the poster boy for the
>> >> bull market.
>> >> > He was born into a family in South Central LA. For those of
>> >> you who don't
>> >> > know, that's the pits. I won't go into details of his youth,
>> >> but he managed
>> >> > to succeed in life, no help to family and friends. By the
>> >> time he was 40,
>> >> > he owned his home outright here (with an ocean view even).
>> >> Married a cute
>> >> > blond and has an 8 year old, who is my son's best friend (or
>> >> second best, if
>> >> > you ask my son <G>). In fact, that's how I originally met
>> >> Stan. Through
>> >> > his wife while playing Mr. Mom with my 18 month old. So I've
>> >> known Stan for
>> >> > 6 1/2 years.
>> >> >
>> >> > Stan's Market Philosophy
>> >> >
>> >> > Stan, based on his background, is not a spender. His wife is
>> >> perfect for
>> >> > him, because she can grind down the best of them <ggg>.
>> >> Anyway, Stan is a
>> >> > sales rep. Respected and liked in his field, I'm told. He
>> >> currently makes
>> >> > about $150k a year and saves $4-5k a month. And don't ask me
>> >> how? We make
>> >> > a lot more and save a lot less. <G>
>> >> >
>> >> > For as long as I've know Stan, he has been dumping all excess
>> >> cash into
>> >> > various funds. He stayed away from any funds with
>> >> international exposures,
>> >> > probably based upon his conservative bent. When we discussed
>> >> the various
>> >> > ups and downs of the market, the two of us are on different
>> >> planets. His
>> >> > response was, always, "so the market dropped." "I'm in it for
>> >> the long pull
>> >> > and in the next 18 years or so, it'll do OK." He felt that
>> >> the last few
>> >> > years were a little extreme, but that he would be able to
>> >> maintain a 10% per
>> >> > year growth. In my mind, Stan is the typical, modern investor
>> >> with their
>> >> > 401k investments.
>> >> >
>> >> > Last week, everything changed! Stan has decided to forgo
>> >> putting any more
>> >> > money into his various funds. He has started investing all of
>> >> his new
>> >> > savings in CD's and Bonds. Now, you have to understand that
>> >> he is not
>> >> > pulling any money out of his mutual funds, just not adding
>> >> anything new.
>> >> > For Stan, this is a MAJOR paradigm shift. And while he
>> >> refuses to look at
>> >> > historical facts in the market, when annual return was
>> >> substantially less
>> >> > than 10% a year, he has at least started to protect himself
>> >> and not keep all
>> >> > of his eggs in one basket.
>> >> >
>> >> > I sort of refer to this as the SIMS. If he represents the
>> >> average American,
>> >> > then we can look for Fund inflows to decrease while Bond funds
>> >> and banks
>> >> > should have increased inflows. Meaning more money available
>> >> for lending and
>> >> > no where to go.
>> >> >
>> >> > I wonder how long it'll take Stan to realize that all of his
>> >> current fund
>> >> > investments are exposed to risk? My dad told me a year ago,
>> >> that the
>> >> > NASDAQ will drop 50% before the public will figure out they're
>> >> in a bear
>> >> > market. I guess I'll keep watching Stan!
>> >> >
>> >> > Regards
>> >> >
>> >> > Guy
>> >>
>> >
>>
>>
>>
>
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