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<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Hi Steve,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>You wrote in part:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> 2. You don't need a<BR></DIV>
<DIV>>weatherman to know which way the wind blows </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Of course you don't.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Keep it simple. All you need is a piece of
string. If it is moving, the wind is blowing. If it is wet it is
raining.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Regards,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Dick.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Mon Sep 07 07:10:39 1998
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Date: Mon, 07 Sep 1998 12:06:36 +0200
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
From: derksenf <derksenf@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
Sender: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
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Hi Steve,
While you all are barbecueing and celebrating Labor Day we poor Europeans must
work.
Looks like we have a start of a (suckers?) rally on our hands. Should help
Guy to position himself well, for the tick-tock, tick-tock big one...
You complained about your oil-girlfriend and you intend to cut your
courtship with her.
I don't know much about oil but I saw the XOI index closing up last friday
by >4% !!
You want to sell into this rally ?? Shouldn't you add to the position ??
Rgds,
Frans
At 19:33 6-09-98 -0700, you wrote:
>Guy,
>
>Hopefully you saw through my thinly vailed, sarcastic Detroit
>humor (Robin Williams, Lily Tomlin, Tim Allen, Gilda Radner, and
>of course Soupy), to see that I'm hanging on to my third week in
>September prediction (It was about as thinly vailed as Madonna
>dressed up as a nun...another fine Murder City comedian).
>
>Of course, you're only as good as your last prediction. This is
>for you Guy, the only person, on the list, who lived just off
>of Middlebelt (I lived five houses away 29525 W. Chicago). You
>must promise to keep this to yourself: All my "super secret"
>calculations point to a rally to "bounce back" to at least 1015
>- 1020 in the Sept. 500 and then I'm targeting 910 on the
>downside.
>
>I seldom target anything. It seems when I do, I get emotionally
>attached to the outcome. These markets are real seducers. If
>you get to attached to an outcome, they'll break your heart.
>
>I almost "fell in love" with crude oil recently. We started
>going out early last week. It was love at first sight. She had
>gone through tough times and I kinda "picked her up" near the
>bottom of her life. Well, things just got better everyday and I
>thought it might last forever (you know, like a couple of
>weeks). Then, on Friday, she started acting funny. She no
>longer wanted go in the direction I wanted to go. It was like
>she followed me up to a point and then she resisted. It was as
>if she would go right up to a line in the sand and then wouldn't
>cross it. Well, I told her I'd take the weekend to reevaluate
>our relationship, but, after consulting a few close, objective
>friends, I'm dumping her on Monday. I don't want to get hurt
>again. It's the best thing for both of us.
>Sorry about pouring my heart out in public. Please don't feel
>bad for me, we had some real good times and I've been seeing
>this girl from Canada on the side.
>
>Anyway, don't get caught with long positions right before the
>"triplewitch" ... she'll put a spell on you! If I come close to
>any of these predictions, I'll be writing a book this winter:
>"Leonardo Fibonacci: The Missing Years". If not, I might
>write: "The Secret Rock and Roll Life of Robert Prechter".
>
>Hope your weekend is going good.
>Howling at the full moon,
>
>Steve Karnish
>CCT
>
>
>----------
>> From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>> Date: Sunday, September 06, 1998 4:17 PM
>>
>> OK Steve
>>
>> Now I'm confused. What's the date???? October 5 or the third
>week of
>> September???
>>
>> The market held our support price, basis S&P futures of 936.
>The upside
>> channel resistance is 1076 (approx.). If we get anywhere near
>there, I plan
>> on buying a bunch of Out of the Money Puts and hold on.
>>
>> I see a possible range for the S&P of 140 points and this
>translates to 1260
>> Dow points (approx.), I think. If we do get a run up to
>anywhere that
>> level, it might be worth it to 'take a shot'. This weeks S&P
>support
>> (again, I'm talking futures prices here) is 941 (approx.).
>Any breakout
>> below that number, even interday, could mean a target of 867
>(approx.).
>> That would be the equivalent of 981 Dow points down from the
>close Friday.
>>
>> These are just some of the numbers I'm reading from my charts.
> I haven't
>> looked at calculating a 'bottom'.
>>
>> Guy
>>
>>
>> > -----Original Message-----
>> > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve
>Karnish
>> > Sent: Friday, September 04, 1998 5:47 PM
>> > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> > Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>> >
>> >
>> > Guy,
>> >
>> > I was watching "Mr. Rogers" on PBS this morning and he said:
>> > "Kids, can you spell: D I S S E M E N A T I O N "?
>> >
>> > If the funds were fully invested in July (not a big stretch
>of
>> > the imagination, but let's assume that they were only 90%
>> > invested) and we see month, after month, after month, of
>> > withdrawals...how will that affect the market? Duhhhhhhhh.
>> >
>> > Don't forget these "young guns" (funds managers that have
>never
>> > seen a bear market and in reality are investors and not
>traders)
>> > all get paid the bulk of their income on bonuses and they
>have
>> > refused to sell during this little 18% drawdown. "Hey man,
>we
>> > can't cash out now and identify a loss, that will destroy my
>> > year end bonus". Think about that whole scene.
>> >
>> > Notice that the same people that were raging bulls in mid
>July
>> > are now the ones who, like "Stan", think: I'm in it for the
>> > long run. Sure! The public will be selling their funds in
>> > record numbers right at the exact bottom. The same "8 year
>> > Wizard Investors" will be regurgitating every last share and
>vow
>> > "never" to get involved again. Isn't this Yogi's deja vu
>all
>> > over again? Please respond if you were around for the 22
>month
>> > bear in '73 or around for the after birth of '87 (Guy, I
>know
>> > you were there, and please do keep supplying us with
>neighborly
>> > stories).
>> >
>> > For the bulls in the crowd, I'd love to hear your arguments.
>> > Please don't make me giggle too much, I've already pulled a
>> > stomach muscle laughing "all the way to the bank" this week.
>> > Since the opening on Tuesday I've been long crude, long the
>Can
>> > $, and long wheat. Each made historic contract lows Monday
>or
>> > Tuesday and the commodity index made 21 year lows on Friday
>and
>> > then again on Monday.
>> >
>> > So, one last chance to collect your marbles and go home.
>Two
>> > weeks from today is a 'triple witching" day. Before we even
>get
>> > to the 18th of September, we must contend with my buddy
>> > Fibonacci. I alluded that Dino would break your kneecaps
>for
>> > $50. His ancient relative, Leonardo, will break your heart
>(and
>> > steal your wallet) in 55 days (from the highs). Tick,
>tick,
>> > tick, tick, tick, on our way to 55 and counting.
>> >
>> > Steve Karnish
>> > CCT
>> > ----------
>> > > From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>> > > To: Metastock <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> > > Subject: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>> > > Date: Friday, September 04, 1998 2:44 PM
>> > >
>> > > This is a personal note about the market and various
>investor
>> > thoughts.
>> > > I'll call it the 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or
>SIMS
>> > <G>.
>> > >
>> > > Background..
>> > >
>> > > I have a friend, locally, who has been the poster boy for
>the
>> > bull market.
>> > > He was born into a family in South Central LA. For those
>of
>> > you who don't
>> > > know, that's the pits. I won't go into details of his
>youth,
>> > but he managed
>> > > to succeed in life, no help to family and friends. By the
>> > time he was 40,
>> > > he owned his home outright here (with an ocean view even).
>> > Married a cute
>> > > blond and has an 8 year old, who is my son's best friend
>(or
>> > second best, if
>> > > you ask my son <G>). In fact, that's how I originally met
>> > Stan. Through
>> > > his wife while playing Mr. Mom with my 18 month old. So
>I've
>> > known Stan for
>> > > 6 1/2 years.
>> > >
>> > > Stan's Market Philosophy
>> > >
>> > > Stan, based on his background, is not a spender. His
>wife is
>> > perfect for
>> > > him, because she can grind down the best of them <ggg>.
>> > Anyway, Stan is a
>> > > sales rep. Respected and liked in his field, I'm told.
>He
>> > currently makes
>> > > about $150k a year and saves $4-5k a month. And don't ask
>me
>> > how? We make
>> > > a lot more and save a lot less. <G>
>> > >
>> > > For as long as I've know Stan, he has been dumping all
>excess
>> > cash into
>> > > various funds. He stayed away from any funds with
>> > international exposures,
>> > > probably based upon his conservative bent. When we
>discussed
>> > the various
>> > > ups and downs of the market, the two of us are on
>different
>> > planets. His
>> > > response was, always, "so the market dropped." "I'm in it
>for
>> > the long pull
>> > > and in the next 18 years or so, it'll do OK." He felt
>that
>> > the last few
>> > > years were a little extreme, but that he would be able to
>> > maintain a 10% per
>> > > year growth. In my mind, Stan is the typical, modern
>investor
>> > with their
>> > > 401k investments.
>> > >
>> > > Last week, everything changed! Stan has decided to forgo
>> > putting any more
>> > > money into his various funds. He has started investing
>all of
>> > his new
>> > > savings in CD's and Bonds. Now, you have to understand
>that
>> > he is not
>> > > pulling any money out of his mutual funds, just not adding
>> > anything new.
>> > > For Stan, this is a MAJOR paradigm shift. And while he
>> > refuses to look at
>> > > historical facts in the market, when annual return was
>> > substantially less
>> > > than 10% a year, he has at least started to protect
>himself
>> > and not keep all
>> > > of his eggs in one basket.
>> > >
>> > > I sort of refer to this as the SIMS. If he represents the
>> > average American,
>> > > then we can look for Fund inflows to decrease while Bond
>funds
>> > and banks
>> > > should have increased inflows. Meaning more money
>available
>> > for lending and
>> > > no where to go.
>> > >
>> > > I wonder how long it'll take Stan to realize that all of
>his
>> > current fund
>> > > investments are exposed to risk? My dad told me a year
>ago,
>> > that the
>> > > NASDAQ will drop 50% before the public will figure out
>they're
>> > in a bear
>> > > market. I guess I'll keep watching Stan!
>> > >
>> > > Regards
>> > >
>> > > Guy
>> >
>
>
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