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John,
You also need to look at market breadth - up/down
volume ratio, volume, new highs minus new lows. In
this case you could also look at the yield on the
30 yr. Treasury note and the US $. All give good
info.
Harley
John Hunter wrote:
> Jim,Your confusion is shared by many I believe,
> certainly by myself. I have tried to address it
> in the past on this forum with no positive
> outcome and you have prompted me to try once
> again. To me the answer to this question is the
> most important reason why anyone would use
> Metastock. Take your own system, as I have come
> to understand it from your many very informative
> postings. When you see a breakout from a tend
> occurring what indicator or combination of
> indicators could be used to reliably predictive
> that the trend has ended and the stock/commodity
> price will move in a new direction. I have noted
> you say in a number of postings that you are
> forced to wait for sufficient information (ie
> days of trading) to come in before you can
> redraw the new price direction.I have played
> around with a number of indicators, and
> different combinations of indicators, with the
> object of finding a system that will reliably
> signal that and end to the current trend is
> about to come to an end. For example the daily
> DOW chart had a stochastic crossover, indicating
> a sell, in late July and this was confirmed by a
> moving average crossover shortly after this.
> (These can be viewed from the
> http://www.barchart.com page.) Now I know it is
> not going to be that easy and so your confusion
> and my question to the group. What indicators
> are useful in predicting the end of a
> trend?JH -----Original Message-----
> From: Jim Greening <JimGinVA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: Metastock <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: Sunday, 6 September 1998 4:42
> Subject: Weekly Pick
>
> All, We got the drop that I was
> expecting this week, but now I'm
> confused. Are we in the process of
> completing a typical four month bull
> market 20% correction or is this the
> start of a bear market? I was
> definitely bearish last week as all
> the indices were breaking intermediate
> and long term up trends which
> confirmed a down trend was in
> process. That's still the same this
> week, but I'm getting mixed
> signals.......snip..........snip..........snip............snip.... The
> internet stocks patterns would support
> the bear market theory. Since I'm
> uncertain, my options at this point
> are to either do nothing or since I'm
> all cash except for my WCOM put
> options, I could nibble in both
> directions. Nibbling is more fun and
> I have the large cash position for a
> cushion, so that's what I'm going to
> do
> <G>.......snip..........snip...........snip..........snip...... To
> me this looks like a typical long term
> trend reversal pattern. I constructed
> a standard deviation Short Term Down
> Trend Channel (STDTC) with the
> deviation set at 2 from the 8/19/98
> high to the 9/1/98 low and extended it
> to the right. The top of the STDTC is
> at 30 1/2 and the bottom of the
> channel can't be reached since it is
> below zero. The fundamentals are what
> you would expect of an internet stock,
> 229% sales growth, but negative
> earnings. It could do great in a bull
> market, but should get killed in a
> bear market.
>
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