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Guy,
Soupy's son's Hunt and Tony went to school in Livonia. My
mother knew them in high school and I later met them in
Hollyweird (after they were bratty super stars). Hunt was the
drummer on a couple of Iggy Pop albums in the mid seventies. In
fact, if you listen to the sound track of those new Buick
commercials, it's Iggy's "Lust for Life". Tony plays the
booming bass and Hunt is the Neanderthal drummer. A couple of
those albums were produced by David Bowie and when he started
his Tin Machine band about 8 or 10 years ago, he teamed up with
the Sales Bros. I have a couple favorite stories about Hunt (one
involves Tijuana, a bar named Iguanas, and a mosh pit), I don't
think this is the proper forum.
You might be too old to appreciate this (just teasing), but you
might want to visit: http://www.cklw.org/. I know it's not
WJR...but if you ever got into Dick Purtan or were listening to
any rock music in your "twenties", it's a real time machine.
The search for descent priced out of the money puts is on. Over
the years "fair value" has always been a difficult thing to find
in any of the OEX series. I'm hoping that I can snag some value
in some new obscure option series that hardly anyone is playing
(options on futures). The lack of robust liquidity is certainly
a reasonable trade off if the OEX options don't offer any fair
value. I'll keep you informed. In a perfect world (Stevie
Wonder's Egocentric Idaho), the markets would exceed all my
expectation for the next 7 or 8 trading days and with our
society's attitude" "what have you done for me yesterday",
everyone would be myopic enough to think that we're going back
to new highs. Under that scenario, puts would be cheaper and
intrinsically, much closer to what they are worth.
You seem to have a good grasp on your local market. All my good
friends InSaneDiego, are real giddy about the feeding frenzy
going on. It reminds me of the middle 80's to '88/'89 time. I
had a friend (old roommate) who left Denver in '86. He was a
bond trader and his wife was Marvin Davis's CPA's. They bought
a cute place adjacent to Griffith Park and paid $375k
(reasonable at the time). Eighteen months later they turned
down $650K. Recently, I've advised two close friends in North
County to cash out and rent for a couple of years. I actually
see 3% - 4% interest rates looming in the future. La la has
imploded before and I believe it's going to again. I know it's
a real trick bag...best of luck in how you play it. My
decisions are a bit easier: Do I buy all the acerage I want for
$1,000/acre or do I wait til spring when the bankers force a
bunch of sales around here and pick the land up for $700/acre?
I think I'll wait.
Panhandling in Idaho,
Steve Karnish
CCT
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From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
Date: Monday, September 07, 1998 12:33 AM
Steve
I can't believe you mentioned Gilda, Soupy, Tim Allan, et al.
My ex-mother-in-law went to school with Soupy in West Va. and it
used to be
one of our funnest moments (as Evan would say <G>) to go down to
the
Macabees (sp?) Bldg., and celebrate New Years with Soupy. Both
of my older
boys have signed pictures from him. Heck, I went through
college having
lunch with Soupy <ggg>.
I grew up with Gilda's older brother and just knew her as a
skinny little
kid.
Tim Allan and family and my wife and son flew back on one of
their many trip
via Northworst. Tim's daughter tried to pick up Evan (she and
he were about
4 at the time) but he was playing hard to get <g>. Tim offered
my wife and
son a ride in their limo to our house, but the little guy
wouldn't go, so
they took a cab (all of 4 miles from LAX).
You forgot one of our most famous natives. Ivan!! I grew up
with Ivan. We
used to double date. What really shook me up 2 weeks ago was a
call that
one of our group died. Out of the original group (I was the
youngest),
everyone is dead except Ivan and myself.
Do you have any recommendations on some out of the money puts
(OEX or S&P)?
I'm going to start stocking up on them over the next few weeks.
I took both
of my older kids totally out of equities and into Bonds. My
wife's 401k
can't be moved for 5 months so I've got to protect that with
some of these
Out of the Money Puts.
I've also told my middle son to hold of on buying that house
he's been
looking at ($550k). At least wait until Christmas time when
the market
dies. The more I look at the numbers, it looks like 1999 will
be the end of
our bull move in housing here. It's not as important for him as
he make a
ton and his fiancée will make more than he does, so their
housing purchase
will be less than half their gross income this year. I wish I
had those
troubles... <ggg>
If I had cahones, I'd sell mine and rent for a year or two. I
hate to see
the $300k equity evaporate. Wish someone offered housing puts
<G>. That
would be good insurance play. The alternative is to mortgage it
to the hilt
and use the money to short everything in sight. Nah, she won't
let me do
that either. My problem is that we have a bunch of money due,
hopefully by
year end that might disappear if everything goes to the dumper,
and it's
totally out of our control... You know the old story about
bending over and
kissing your *** goodbye. I'm afraid that will happen to us
this year and
it was a big part of retirement.
Regards
Guy
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve
Karnish
> Sent: Sunday, September 06, 1998 7:33 PM
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>
>
> Guy,
>
> Hopefully you saw through my thinly vailed, sarcastic Detroit
> humor (Robin Williams, Lily Tomlin, Tim Allen, Gilda Radner,
and
> of course Soupy), to see that I'm hanging on to my third week
in
> September prediction (It was about as thinly vailed as Madonna
> dressed up as a nun...another fine Murder City comedian).
>
> Of course, you're only as good as your last prediction. This
is
> for you Guy, the only person, on the list, who lived just off
> of Middlebelt (I lived five houses away 29525 W. Chicago).
You
> must promise to keep this to yourself: All my "super secret"
> calculations point to a rally to "bounce back" to at least
1015
> - 1020 in the Sept. 500 and then I'm targeting 910 on the
> downside.
>
> I seldom target anything. It seems when I do, I get
emotionally
> attached to the outcome. These markets are real seducers. If
> you get to attached to an outcome, they'll break your heart.
>
> I almost "fell in love" with crude oil recently. We started
> going out early last week. It was love at first sight. She
had
> gone through tough times and I kinda "picked her up" near the
> bottom of her life. Well, things just got better everyday and
I
> thought it might last forever (you know, like a couple of
> weeks). Then, on Friday, she started acting funny. She no
> longer wanted go in the direction I wanted to go. It was like
> she followed me up to a point and then she resisted. It was
as
> if she would go right up to a line in the sand and then
wouldn't
> cross it. Well, I told her I'd take the weekend to
reevaluate
> our relationship, but, after consulting a few close, objective
> friends, I'm dumping her on Monday. I don't want to get hurt
> again. It's the best thing for both of us.
> Sorry about pouring my heart out in public. Please don't feel
> bad for me, we had some real good times and I've been seeing
> this girl from Canada on the side.
>
> Anyway, don't get caught with long positions right before the
> "triplewitch" ... she'll put a spell on you! If I come close
to
> any of these predictions, I'll be writing a book this winter:
> "Leonardo Fibonacci: The Missing Years". If not, I might
> write: "The Secret Rock and Roll Life of Robert Prechter".
>
> Hope your weekend is going good.
> Howling at the full moon,
>
> Steve Karnish
> CCT
>
>
> ----------
> > From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> > Date: Sunday, September 06, 1998 4:17 PM
> >
> > OK Steve
> >
> > Now I'm confused. What's the date???? October 5 or the
third
> week of
> > September???
> >
> > The market held our support price, basis S&P futures of 936.
> The upside
> > channel resistance is 1076 (approx.). If we get anywhere
near
> there, I plan
> > on buying a bunch of Out of the Money Puts and hold on.
> >
> > I see a possible range for the S&P of 140 points and this
> translates to 1260
> > Dow points (approx.), I think. If we do get a run up to
> anywhere that
> > level, it might be worth it to 'take a shot'. This weeks
S&P
> support
> > (again, I'm talking futures prices here) is 941 (approx.).
> Any breakout
> > below that number, even interday, could mean a target of 867
> (approx.).
> > That would be the equivalent of 981 Dow points down from the
> close Friday.
> >
> > These are just some of the numbers I'm reading from my
charts.
> I haven't
> > looked at calculating a 'bottom'.
> >
> > Guy
> >
> >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve
> Karnish
> > > Sent: Friday, September 04, 1998 5:47 PM
> > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> > >
> > >
> > > Guy,
> > >
> > > I was watching "Mr. Rogers" on PBS this morning and he
said:
> > > "Kids, can you spell: D I S S E M E N A T I O N "?
> > >
> > > If the funds were fully invested in July (not a big
stretch
> of
> > > the imagination, but let's assume that they were only 90%
> > > invested) and we see month, after month, after month, of
> > > withdrawals...how will that affect the market?
Duhhhhhhhh.
> > >
> > > Don't forget these "young guns" (funds managers that have
> never
> > > seen a bear market and in reality are investors and not
> traders)
> > > all get paid the bulk of their income on bonuses and they
> have
> > > refused to sell during this little 18% drawdown. "Hey
man,
> we
> > > can't cash out now and identify a loss, that will destroy
my
> > > year end bonus". Think about that whole scene.
> > >
> > > Notice that the same people that were raging bulls in mid
> July
> > > are now the ones who, like "Stan", think: I'm in it for
the
> > > long run. Sure! The public will be selling their funds
in
> > > record numbers right at the exact bottom. The same "8
year
> > > Wizard Investors" will be regurgitating every last share
and
> vow
> > > "never" to get involved again. Isn't this Yogi's deja vu
> all
> > > over again? Please respond if you were around for the 22
> month
> > > bear in '73 or around for the after birth of '87 (Guy, I
> know
> > > you were there, and please do keep supplying us with
> neighborly
> > > stories).
> > >
> > > For the bulls in the crowd, I'd love to hear your
arguments.
> > > Please don't make me giggle too much, I've already pulled
a
> > > stomach muscle laughing "all the way to the bank" this
week.
> > > Since the opening on Tuesday I've been long crude, long
the
> Can
> > > $, and long wheat. Each made historic contract lows
Monday
> or
> > > Tuesday and the commodity index made 21 year lows on
Friday
> and
> > > then again on Monday.
> > >
> > > So, one last chance to collect your marbles and go home.
> Two
> > > weeks from today is a 'triple witching" day. Before we
even
> get
> > > to the 18th of September, we must contend with my buddy
> > > Fibonacci. I alluded that Dino would break your kneecaps
> for
> > > $50. His ancient relative, Leonardo, will break your
heart
> (and
> > > steal your wallet) in 55 days (from the highs). Tick,
> tick,
> > > tick, tick, tick, on our way to 55 and counting.
> > >
> > > Steve Karnish
> > > CCT
> > > ----------
> > > > From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > To: Metastock <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > Subject: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> > > > Date: Friday, September 04, 1998 2:44 PM
> > > >
> > > > This is a personal note about the market and various
> investor
> > > thoughts.
> > > > I'll call it the 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or
> SIMS
> > > <G>.
> > > >
> > > > Background..
> > > >
> > > > I have a friend, locally, who has been the poster boy
for
> the
> > > bull market.
> > > > He was born into a family in South Central LA. For
those
> of
> > > you who don't
> > > > know, that's the pits. I won't go into details of his
> youth,
> > > but he managed
> > > > to succeed in life, no help to family and friends. By
the
> > > time he was 40,
> > > > he owned his home outright here (with an ocean view
even).
> > > Married a cute
> > > > blond and has an 8 year old, who is my son's best friend
> (or
> > > second best, if
> > > > you ask my son <G>). In fact, that's how I originally
met
> > > Stan. Through
> > > > his wife while playing Mr. Mom with my 18 month old. So
> I've
> > > known Stan for
> > > > 6 1/2 years.
> > > >
> > > > Stan's Market Philosophy
> > > >
> > > > Stan, based on his background, is not a spender. His
> wife is
> > > perfect for
> > > > him, because she can grind down the best of them <ggg>.
> > > Anyway, Stan is a
> > > > sales rep. Respected and liked in his field, I'm told.
> He
> > > currently makes
> > > > about $150k a year and saves $4-5k a month. And don't
ask
> me
> > > how? We make
> > > > a lot more and save a lot less. <G>
> > > >
> > > > For as long as I've know Stan, he has been dumping all
> excess
> > > cash into
> > > > various funds. He stayed away from any funds with
> > > international exposures,
> > > > probably based upon his conservative bent. When we
> discussed
> > > the various
> > > > ups and downs of the market, the two of us are on
> different
> > > planets. His
> > > > response was, always, "so the market dropped." "I'm in
it
> for
> > > the long pull
> > > > and in the next 18 years or so, it'll do OK." He felt
> that
> > > the last few
> > > > years were a little extreme, but that he would be able
to
> > > maintain a 10% per
> > > > year growth. In my mind, Stan is the typical, modern
> investor
> > > with their
> > > > 401k investments.
> > > >
> > > > Last week, everything changed! Stan has decided to
forgo
> > > putting any more
> > > > money into his various funds. He has started investing
> all of
> > > his new
> > > > savings in CD's and Bonds. Now, you have to understand
> that
> > > he is not
> > > > pulling any money out of his mutual funds, just not
adding
> > > anything new.
> > > > For Stan, this is a MAJOR paradigm shift. And while he
> > > refuses to look at
> > > > historical facts in the market, when annual return was
> > > substantially less
> > > > than 10% a year, he has at least started to protect
> himself
> > > and not keep all
> > > > of his eggs in one basket.
> > > >
> > > > I sort of refer to this as the SIMS. If he represents
the
> > > average American,
> > > > then we can look for Fund inflows to decrease while Bond
> funds
> > > and banks
> > > > should have increased inflows. Meaning more money
> available
> > > for lending and
> > > > no where to go.
> > > >
> > > > I wonder how long it'll take Stan to realize that all of
> his
> > > current fund
> > > > investments are exposed to risk? My dad told me a year
> ago,
> > > that the
> > > > NASDAQ will drop 50% before the public will figure out
> they're
> > > in a bear
> > > > market. I guess I'll keep watching Stan!
> > > >
> > > > Regards
> > > >
> > > > Guy
> > >
>
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