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Steve
Keep me informed about the puts. I, too, believe that we're going to bounce
up. As I said before, we might jump to the 1075 area and not break my
downward trend line. Anywhere near there I'm out of here! I have a few
dogs that I'm dumping as well.
My brother got me involved in one of his IPOs. A can't lose... Right!
Bought it at $14/share. After the reverse split, and buying some more, I
think my current market value is $.20. Going to take this opportunity and
bite the big one and take my loss.
Thanks, baby brother. <g> He's got another one going now. Can't wait.
Regards
Guy
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve Karnish
> Sent: Monday, September 07, 1998 8:10 AM
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>
>
> Guy,
>
> Soupy's son's Hunt and Tony went to school in Livonia. My
> mother knew them in high school and I later met them in
> Hollyweird (after they were bratty super stars). Hunt was the
> drummer on a couple of Iggy Pop albums in the mid seventies. In
> fact, if you listen to the sound track of those new Buick
> commercials, it's Iggy's "Lust for Life". Tony plays the
> booming bass and Hunt is the Neanderthal drummer. A couple of
> those albums were produced by David Bowie and when he started
> his Tin Machine band about 8 or 10 years ago, he teamed up with
> the Sales Bros. I have a couple favorite stories about Hunt (one
> involves Tijuana, a bar named Iguanas, and a mosh pit), I don't
> think this is the proper forum.
>
> You might be too old to appreciate this (just teasing), but you
> might want to visit: http://www.cklw.org/. I know it's not
> WJR...but if you ever got into Dick Purtan or were listening to
> any rock music in your "twenties", it's a real time machine.
>
> The search for descent priced out of the money puts is on. Over
> the years "fair value" has always been a difficult thing to find
> in any of the OEX series. I'm hoping that I can snag some value
> in some new obscure option series that hardly anyone is playing
> (options on futures). The lack of robust liquidity is certainly
> a reasonable trade off if the OEX options don't offer any fair
> value. I'll keep you informed. In a perfect world (Stevie
> Wonder's Egocentric Idaho), the markets would exceed all my
> expectation for the next 7 or 8 trading days and with our
> society's attitude" "what have you done for me yesterday",
> everyone would be myopic enough to think that we're going back
> to new highs. Under that scenario, puts would be cheaper and
> intrinsically, much closer to what they are worth.
>
> You seem to have a good grasp on your local market. All my good
> friends InSaneDiego, are real giddy about the feeding frenzy
> going on. It reminds me of the middle 80's to '88/'89 time. I
> had a friend (old roommate) who left Denver in '86. He was a
> bond trader and his wife was Marvin Davis's CPA's. They bought
> a cute place adjacent to Griffith Park and paid $375k
> (reasonable at the time). Eighteen months later they turned
> down $650K. Recently, I've advised two close friends in North
> County to cash out and rent for a couple of years. I actually
> see 3% - 4% interest rates looming in the future. La la has
> imploded before and I believe it's going to again. I know it's
> a real trick bag...best of luck in how you play it. My
> decisions are a bit easier: Do I buy all the acerage I want for
> $1,000/acre or do I wait til spring when the bankers force a
> bunch of sales around here and pick the land up for $700/acre?
> I think I'll wait.
>
> Panhandling in Idaho,
>
> Steve Karnish
> CCT
>
> ----------
> From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> Date: Monday, September 07, 1998 12:33 AM
>
> Steve
>
> I can't believe you mentioned Gilda, Soupy, Tim Allan, et al.
>
> My ex-mother-in-law went to school with Soupy in West Va. and it
> used to be
> one of our funnest moments (as Evan would say <G>) to go down to
> the
> Macabees (sp?) Bldg., and celebrate New Years with Soupy. Both
> of my older
> boys have signed pictures from him. Heck, I went through
> college having
> lunch with Soupy <ggg>.
>
> I grew up with Gilda's older brother and just knew her as a
> skinny little
> kid.
>
> Tim Allan and family and my wife and son flew back on one of
> their many trip
> via Northworst. Tim's daughter tried to pick up Evan (she and
> he were about
> 4 at the time) but he was playing hard to get <g>. Tim offered
> my wife and
> son a ride in their limo to our house, but the little guy
> wouldn't go, so
> they took a cab (all of 4 miles from LAX).
>
> You forgot one of our most famous natives. Ivan!! I grew up
> with Ivan. We
> used to double date. What really shook me up 2 weeks ago was a
> call that
> one of our group died. Out of the original group (I was the
> youngest),
> everyone is dead except Ivan and myself.
>
> Do you have any recommendations on some out of the money puts
> (OEX or S&P)?
> I'm going to start stocking up on them over the next few weeks.
> I took both
> of my older kids totally out of equities and into Bonds. My
> wife's 401k
> can't be moved for 5 months so I've got to protect that with
> some of these
> Out of the Money Puts.
>
> I've also told my middle son to hold of on buying that house
> he's been
> looking at ($550k). At least wait until Christmas time when
> the market
> dies. The more I look at the numbers, it looks like 1999 will
> be the end of
> our bull move in housing here. It's not as important for him as
> he make a
> ton and his fiancée will make more than he does, so their
> housing purchase
> will be less than half their gross income this year. I wish I
> had those
> troubles... <ggg>
>
> If I had cahones, I'd sell mine and rent for a year or two. I
> hate to see
> the $300k equity evaporate. Wish someone offered housing puts
> <G>. That
> would be good insurance play. The alternative is to mortgage it
> to the hilt
> and use the money to short everything in sight. Nah, she won't
> let me do
> that either. My problem is that we have a bunch of money due,
> hopefully by
> year end that might disappear if everything goes to the dumper,
> and it's
> totally out of our control... You know the old story about
> bending over and
> kissing your *** goodbye. I'm afraid that will happen to us
> this year and
> it was a big part of retirement.
>
> Regards
>
> Guy
>
>
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve
> Karnish
> > Sent: Sunday, September 06, 1998 7:33 PM
> > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> >
> >
> > Guy,
> >
> > Hopefully you saw through my thinly vailed, sarcastic Detroit
> > humor (Robin Williams, Lily Tomlin, Tim Allen, Gilda Radner,
> and
> > of course Soupy), to see that I'm hanging on to my third week
> in
> > September prediction (It was about as thinly vailed as Madonna
> > dressed up as a nun...another fine Murder City comedian).
> >
> > Of course, you're only as good as your last prediction. This
> is
> > for you Guy, the only person, on the list, who lived just off
> > of Middlebelt (I lived five houses away 29525 W. Chicago).
> You
> > must promise to keep this to yourself: All my "super secret"
> > calculations point to a rally to "bounce back" to at least
> 1015
> > - 1020 in the Sept. 500 and then I'm targeting 910 on the
> > downside.
> >
> > I seldom target anything. It seems when I do, I get
> emotionally
> > attached to the outcome. These markets are real seducers. If
> > you get to attached to an outcome, they'll break your heart.
> >
> > I almost "fell in love" with crude oil recently. We started
> > going out early last week. It was love at first sight. She
> had
> > gone through tough times and I kinda "picked her up" near the
> > bottom of her life. Well, things just got better everyday and
> I
> > thought it might last forever (you know, like a couple of
> > weeks). Then, on Friday, she started acting funny. She no
> > longer wanted go in the direction I wanted to go. It was like
> > she followed me up to a point and then she resisted. It was
> as
> > if she would go right up to a line in the sand and then
> wouldn't
> > cross it. Well, I told her I'd take the weekend to
> reevaluate
> > our relationship, but, after consulting a few close, objective
> > friends, I'm dumping her on Monday. I don't want to get hurt
> > again. It's the best thing for both of us.
> > Sorry about pouring my heart out in public. Please don't feel
> > bad for me, we had some real good times and I've been seeing
> > this girl from Canada on the side.
> >
> > Anyway, don't get caught with long positions right before the
> > "triplewitch" ... she'll put a spell on you! If I come close
> to
> > any of these predictions, I'll be writing a book this winter:
> > "Leonardo Fibonacci: The Missing Years". If not, I might
> > write: "The Secret Rock and Roll Life of Robert Prechter".
> >
> > Hope your weekend is going good.
> > Howling at the full moon,
> >
> > Steve Karnish
> > CCT
> >
> >
> > ----------
> > > From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> > > Date: Sunday, September 06, 1998 4:17 PM
> > >
> > > OK Steve
> > >
> > > Now I'm confused. What's the date???? October 5 or the
> third
> > week of
> > > September???
> > >
> > > The market held our support price, basis S&P futures of 936.
> > The upside
> > > channel resistance is 1076 (approx.). If we get anywhere
> near
> > there, I plan
> > > on buying a bunch of Out of the Money Puts and hold on.
> > >
> > > I see a possible range for the S&P of 140 points and this
> > translates to 1260
> > > Dow points (approx.), I think. If we do get a run up to
> > anywhere that
> > > level, it might be worth it to 'take a shot'. This weeks
> S&P
> > support
> > > (again, I'm talking futures prices here) is 941 (approx.).
> > Any breakout
> > > below that number, even interday, could mean a target of 867
> > (approx.).
> > > That would be the equivalent of 981 Dow points down from the
> > close Friday.
> > >
> > > These are just some of the numbers I'm reading from my
> charts.
> > I haven't
> > > looked at calculating a 'bottom'.
> > >
> > > Guy
> > >
> > >
> > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve
> > Karnish
> > > > Sent: Friday, September 04, 1998 5:47 PM
> > > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Guy,
> > > >
> > > > I was watching "Mr. Rogers" on PBS this morning and he
> said:
> > > > "Kids, can you spell: D I S S E M E N A T I O N "?
> > > >
> > > > If the funds were fully invested in July (not a big
> stretch
> > of
> > > > the imagination, but let's assume that they were only 90%
> > > > invested) and we see month, after month, after month, of
> > > > withdrawals...how will that affect the market?
> Duhhhhhhhh.
> > > >
> > > > Don't forget these "young guns" (funds managers that have
> > never
> > > > seen a bear market and in reality are investors and not
> > traders)
> > > > all get paid the bulk of their income on bonuses and they
> > have
> > > > refused to sell during this little 18% drawdown. "Hey
> man,
> > we
> > > > can't cash out now and identify a loss, that will destroy
> my
> > > > year end bonus". Think about that whole scene.
> > > >
> > > > Notice that the same people that were raging bulls in mid
> > July
> > > > are now the ones who, like "Stan", think: I'm in it for
> the
> > > > long run. Sure! The public will be selling their funds
> in
> > > > record numbers right at the exact bottom. The same "8
> year
> > > > Wizard Investors" will be regurgitating every last share
> and
> > vow
> > > > "never" to get involved again. Isn't this Yogi's deja vu
> > all
> > > > over again? Please respond if you were around for the 22
> > month
> > > > bear in '73 or around for the after birth of '87 (Guy, I
> > know
> > > > you were there, and please do keep supplying us with
> > neighborly
> > > > stories).
> > > >
> > > > For the bulls in the crowd, I'd love to hear your
> arguments.
> > > > Please don't make me giggle too much, I've already pulled
> a
> > > > stomach muscle laughing "all the way to the bank" this
> week.
> > > > Since the opening on Tuesday I've been long crude, long
> the
> > Can
> > > > $, and long wheat. Each made historic contract lows
> Monday
> > or
> > > > Tuesday and the commodity index made 21 year lows on
> Friday
> > and
> > > > then again on Monday.
> > > >
> > > > So, one last chance to collect your marbles and go home.
> > Two
> > > > weeks from today is a 'triple witching" day. Before we
> even
> > get
> > > > to the 18th of September, we must contend with my buddy
> > > > Fibonacci. I alluded that Dino would break your kneecaps
> > for
> > > > $50. His ancient relative, Leonardo, will break your
> heart
> > (and
> > > > steal your wallet) in 55 days (from the highs). Tick,
> > tick,
> > > > tick, tick, tick, on our way to 55 and counting.
> > > >
> > > > Steve Karnish
> > > > CCT
> > > > ----------
> > > > > From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > To: Metastock <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > Subject: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> > > > > Date: Friday, September 04, 1998 2:44 PM
> > > > >
> > > > > This is a personal note about the market and various
> > investor
> > > > thoughts.
> > > > > I'll call it the 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or
> > SIMS
> > > > <G>.
> > > > >
> > > > > Background..
> > > > >
> > > > > I have a friend, locally, who has been the poster boy
> for
> > the
> > > > bull market.
> > > > > He was born into a family in South Central LA. For
> those
> > of
> > > > you who don't
> > > > > know, that's the pits. I won't go into details of his
> > youth,
> > > > but he managed
> > > > > to succeed in life, no help to family and friends. By
> the
> > > > time he was 40,
> > > > > he owned his home outright here (with an ocean view
> even).
> > > > Married a cute
> > > > > blond and has an 8 year old, who is my son's best friend
> > (or
> > > > second best, if
> > > > > you ask my son <G>). In fact, that's how I originally
> met
> > > > Stan. Through
> > > > > his wife while playing Mr. Mom with my 18 month old. So
> > I've
> > > > known Stan for
> > > > > 6 1/2 years.
> > > > >
> > > > > Stan's Market Philosophy
> > > > >
> > > > > Stan, based on his background, is not a spender. His
> > wife is
> > > > perfect for
> > > > > him, because she can grind down the best of them <ggg>.
> > > > Anyway, Stan is a
> > > > > sales rep. Respected and liked in his field, I'm told.
> > He
> > > > currently makes
> > > > > about $150k a year and saves $4-5k a month. And don't
> ask
> > me
> > > > how? We make
> > > > > a lot more and save a lot less. <G>
> > > > >
> > > > > For as long as I've know Stan, he has been dumping all
> > excess
> > > > cash into
> > > > > various funds. He stayed away from any funds with
> > > > international exposures,
> > > > > probably based upon his conservative bent. When we
> > discussed
> > > > the various
> > > > > ups and downs of the market, the two of us are on
> > different
> > > > planets. His
> > > > > response was, always, "so the market dropped." "I'm in
> it
> > for
> > > > the long pull
> > > > > and in the next 18 years or so, it'll do OK." He felt
> > that
> > > > the last few
> > > > > years were a little extreme, but that he would be able
> to
> > > > maintain a 10% per
> > > > > year growth. In my mind, Stan is the typical, modern
> > investor
> > > > with their
> > > > > 401k investments.
> > > > >
> > > > > Last week, everything changed! Stan has decided to
> forgo
> > > > putting any more
> > > > > money into his various funds. He has started investing
> > all of
> > > > his new
> > > > > savings in CD's and Bonds. Now, you have to understand
> > that
> > > > he is not
> > > > > pulling any money out of his mutual funds, just not
> adding
> > > > anything new.
> > > > > For Stan, this is a MAJOR paradigm shift. And while he
> > > > refuses to look at
> > > > > historical facts in the market, when annual return was
> > > > substantially less
> > > > > than 10% a year, he has at least started to protect
> > himself
> > > > and not keep all
> > > > > of his eggs in one basket.
> > > > >
> > > > > I sort of refer to this as the SIMS. If he represents
> the
> > > > average American,
> > > > > then we can look for Fund inflows to decrease while Bond
> > funds
> > > > and banks
> > > > > should have increased inflows. Meaning more money
> > available
> > > > for lending and
> > > > > no where to go.
> > > > >
> > > > > I wonder how long it'll take Stan to realize that all of
> > his
> > > > current fund
> > > > > investments are exposed to risk? My dad told me a year
> > ago,
> > > > that the
> > > > > NASDAQ will drop 50% before the public will figure out
> > they're
> > > > in a bear
> > > > > market. I guess I'll keep watching Stan!
> > > > >
> > > > > Regards
> > > > >
> > > > > Guy
> > > >
> >
> ----------
>
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