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<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Jim,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT><FONT size=2>Your confusion is shared by
many I believe, certainly by myself. I have tried to address it in the
past on this forum with no positive outcome and you have prompted me to
try once again. To me the answer to this question is the most important reason
why anyone would use Metastock. Take your own system, as I have come to
understand it from your many very informative postings. When you see a breakout
from a tend occurring what indicator or combination of indicators could be used
to reliably predictive that the trend has ended and the stock/commodity price
will move in a new direction. I have noted you say in a number of postings that
you are forced to wait for sufficient information (ie days of trading) to come
in before you can redraw the new price direction.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I have played around with a number of indicators, and
different combinations of indicators, with the object of finding a system that
will reliably signal that and end to the current trend is about to come to an
end. For example the daily DOW chart had a stochastic crossover, indicating a
sell, in late July and this was confirmed by a moving average crossover shortly
after this. (These can be viewed from the <BR><A
href="http://www.barchart.com";>http://www.barchart.com</A> page.) Now I
know it is not going to be that easy and so your confusion and my question to
the group. What indicators are useful in predicting the end of a
trend?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>JH<BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2><B></B></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B>-----Original Message-----</B><BR><B>From:
</B>Jim Greening <<A
href="mailto:JimGinVA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>JimGinVA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>To:
</B>Metastock <<A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>Date:
</B>Sunday, 6 September 1998 4:42<BR><B>Subject: </B>Weekly Pick<BR><BR></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 solid 2px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px"></FONT>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>All,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2> We got the drop
that I was expecting this week, but now I'm confused. Are we in the
process of completing a typical four month bull market 20% correction or is
this the start of a bear market? I was definitely bearish last week as
all the indices were breaking intermediate and long term up trends which
confirmed a down trend was in process. That's still the same this
week, but I'm getting mixed signals.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000
size=2>......snip..........snip..........snip............snip....</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>The internet stocks patterns would support
the bear market theory. Since I'm uncertain, my options at this point
are to either do nothing or since I'm all cash except for my WCOM put
options, I could nibble in both directions. Nibbling is more fun and I
have the large cash position for a cushion, so that's what I'm going to do
<G>.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT><FONT size=2></FONT><FONT
color=#000000
size=2>......snip..........snip...........snip..........snip......</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>To me this looks like a typical long term trend reversal
pattern. I constructed a standard deviation Short Term Down Trend
Channel (STDTC) with the deviation set at 2 from the 8/19/98 high to the
9/1/98 low and extended it to the right. The top of the STDTC is at 30
1/2 and the bottom of the channel can't be reached since it is below
zero. The fundamentals are what you would expect of an internet stock,
229% sales growth, but negative earnings. It could do great in a bull
market, but should get killed in a bear market. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>
</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Mon Sep 07 08:45:56 1998
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Date: Mon, 07 Sep 1998 09:55:25 -0400
From: fletch <fletchmo@xxxxxxx>
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Subject: Re: Tick-Tock, Tick-Tock!
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steve
will get the Ergodic out to you today - w/ full explanation
fletch
- you have to kill-it to grill-it !! Bears & bulls........
or........... is that Bulls & bears
Steve Karnish wrote:
> Al.
> I've been Fib counting since 1978 and if I'm counting wrong...I
> don't want to know. It's working fine for me. If I didn't own
> an HP, I would have never got through calculus a couple years
> ago. Thanks for the tip.
> Steve Karnish
> CCT
>
> ----------
> > From: Alton Stephens <astephen@xxxxxxxx>
> > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: RE: Tick-Tock, Tick-Tock!
> > Date: Sunday, September 06, 1998 6:16 AM
> >
> > Steve, Dan- you guys need a financial calculator like the HP
> 17BII I have.
> > It has a complete date arithmetic module that is indispensable
> to cycle
> > counting. And you can easily keep track of exactly how many
> days old you
> > are!
> >
> >
> > Al Stephens
> > astephen@xxxxxxxx
> >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve
> Karnish
> > > Sent: Saturday, September 05, 1998 9:54 PM
> > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: Re: Tick-Tock, Tick-Tock!
> > >
> > >
> > > Dan,
> > >
> > > After talking to you on the phone for a couple hours, I
> thought
> > > you were my buddy. Now, you have to prove to everyone that
> I
> > > can't count calendar days. I'm such a dolt. Assuming the
> top
> > > was the 17th (I guess if one is an equity trader, than the
> 17th
> > > MUST be the top), let me add these up in public:
> > >
> > > 14 days in July
> > > 31 days in August
> > > 30 days in September
> > > 5 days in October
> > > ------------------
> > > 55 yes sir! Sorry about my mistake.
> > >
> > > I apologize. First I'll call my data provider and tell them
> > > that the top they posted in the S&P 500 September contract
> ,on
> > > July the 20, MUST be a mistake. Second, I'll call the
> Princeton
> > > Economic Institute and tell them that this astute investor
> in
> > > Idaho says that 55 days from July 17th, his personal choice
> of
> > > tops, does not fall in the third week of September, it's
> > > actually in the first week of October. Then, I'll call all
> > > those people I've put on ready alert for our second round of
> put
> > > buying and tell them that a MetaStock user pointed out that
> > > since MetaStock excludes non trading days in their charts,
> that
> > > we need to keep our powder dry for an additional couple
> weeks.
> > >
> > > Let me ask you a personal question Dan? Have you ever
> figured
> > > out why the fib numbers don't work when the lines are spread
> out
> > > over 21, 34, 55, 89? Do they seem to be out of synch by x
> > > number of days and does that tend to stretch out even
> farther as
> > > time goes by? I'll let you figure out why that is. While
> > > you're doing that, I'll just crawl back into my "Idahole"
> and
> > > practice my arithmetic.
> > >
> > > Gee Dan, I feel so stupid,
> > >
> > > Steve Karnish
> > > CCT
> > > ----------
> > > > From: D.Henderson <hende@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > Subject: Tick-Tock, Tick-Tock!
> > > > Date: Saturday, September 05, 1998 3:56 PM
> > > >
> > > > Steve;
> > > >
> > > > Please forgive me!
> > > >
> > > > But after looking up the CME holiday schedule, won't 55
> days
> > > work out to
> > > > Monday, Oct 05, 1998 [based on the DJI high of July 17]
> ????
> > > >
> > > > Dan H
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> -----------------------------------------------------------------
>
> > > --------------
> > > >
> > > > At 05:47 PM 9/4/98 -0700, you wrote:
> > > > >Guy,
> > > > >
> > > > >I was watching "Mr. Rogers" on PBS this morning and he
> said:
> > > > >"Kids, can you spell: D I S S E M E N A T I O N "?
> > > > >
> > > > >snip, snip
> > > > >
> > > > >His ancient relative, Leonardo, will break your heart
> (and
> > > > >steal your wallet) in 55 days (from the highs). Tick,
> tick,
> > > > >tick, tick, tick, on our way to 55 and counting.
> > > > >
> > > > >Steve Karnish
> > > > >CCT
> > > > >----------
> > >
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