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Al,
Thanks, I'll incorporate this "trend wisdom" into my trading
philosophy. Unlike equities, I'm not aware of any futures ever
going to "zero", not even tulips. The grains have inherent
value at some level. Recently, on this list, I've suggested
that a 63 and a 50 month cycle will bottom, together in
September for Corn. For the past three weeks, I've targeted
lows for : Beans 4.85 (but could stop at 5.00); Corn 2.00; Wheat
2.50. Beans have a way to go; corn hit 202 and wheat hit a low
of 2.55. We have come close to each of my downside projections
and yes, we still might test the projected lows, and if we go
through, I'll share new downside support levels.
Are you suggesting a short position here? I'd love to here your
views on the grains. The grains will bottom in the immediate
future (this week, September, October). I would just hate for
people to pass up the lowest grain prices for the next
millenium. You know, it's kind of like hating to see people
pass up the selling opportunity in the inflated Dow and S&P. Do
you recall when your friend: "the trend", stabbed everyone in
the back in July? (Well, not everyone...Guy and I have been
talking about the implosion from the beginning).
Al, I gather from previous post that you trade the D-Mark, long
bonds, Euro's. Can you share with the list your views on the
direction of these markets?
Trading in Idaho (long the Mark and Bonds),
Steve Karnish
CCT
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> From: Al Taglavore <altag@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: commodity traders
> Date: Monday, August 31, 1998 12:45 AM
>
> Aren't we supposed to sell new lows, buy new highs? "The trend
is your
> friend" (until it ends)
>
> Al Taglavore
>
> snip-snip-snip...
> Steve Karnish wrote:
> >
> > List,
> >
> > Corn and beans came in with the year's lowest consensus
numbers:
> > Corn=25.0 & Beans=22.2. In fact, I scanned back through
1997
> > and 1996 also and there's nothing that comes close to these
> > numbers on the downside. This type of bearish sentiment
> > inevitably sparks a rally. Anybody notice the dollar
"tanking"
> > on Friday? The $ index gave back every stinking penny it
gained
> > since June 19th. Boy, I just hate to talk these
funkymentals,
> > but our grain just got a little easier to buy after Friday's
> > action in the dollar. When bullish consensus falls to these
> > levels, the interpretation is that there is no one left to
sell.
> > The stock market is stealing all the headlines, but the
> > commodity index made new 21 year lows on Thursday and
Friday.
> >
> >
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