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Tom,
I'll reply to most of your questions privately, but I thought
the list might enjoy an "intraday peek" (basis the September
Dow), using MS6.51 & candlesticks. File attachment "candles"
illustrates the classic "evening star" pattern that kicked off
the selling this morning. "Candles2" shows the market forming
three "shooting stars" prior to accelerating the decline this
afternoon. Maybe I'm just seeing things. You be the judge.
The TV talking heads are still talking about this being a
"correction in a bull market".
Steve Karnish
CCT
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> From: Tom Strickland <tstrickland@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: commodity traders
> Date: Monday, August 31, 1998 9:42 AM
>
> Steve,
>
> I've been reading your postings on this mail list, and I find
them to be
> very interesting. I've got a few questions based on your
recent comments.
>
> In this posting you cite "consensus numbers." Could you tell
me what types
> of traders are represented in this consensus? Also, do you get
these
> numbers from the net? If so, could you provide an address? Do
you have any
> consensus numbers for wheat?
>
> Larry Williams touts "commercial net buying" statistics as
indicators of
> futures market directions. Do you use this information, and
what is your
> opinion of it? Is "commercial net buying" available on the
net?
>
> You have noted quite correctly that wheat is in a bear market.
However, the
> price is so low that I have been reluctant to go with the
trend. I wonder
> how much lower the wheat price can go, and is there enough
downside
> potential there to justify the risk. What is your view?
>
> Back on August 22 you stated that candlesticks are the most
important
> technical tool available. However, your comments in that
message mentioned
> that you also used a number of other technical indicators such
as
> stochastics, Bollinger bands, etc. Do you incorporate all or
several of
> these various indicators into a system, or do you examine them
and draw
> subjective conclusions?
>
> Well, that's enough questions to keep you busy for a while.
Thanks for
> considering them.
>
> Tom Strickland
>
>
>
> At 09:22 PM 8/30/98 -0700, you wrote:
> >List,
> >
> >Corn and beans came in with the year's lowest consensus
numbers:
> >Corn=25.0 & Beans=22.2. In fact, I scanned back through 1997
> >and 1996 also and there's nothing that comes close to these
> >numbers on the downside. This type of bearish sentiment
> >inevitably sparks a rally. Anybody notice the dollar
"tanking"
> >on Friday? The $ index gave back every stinking penny it
gained
> >since June 19th. Boy, I just hate to talk these
funkymentals,
> >but our grain just got a little easier to buy after Friday's
> >action in the dollar. When bullish consensus falls to these
> >levels, the interpretation is that there is no one left to
sell.
> > The stock market is stealing all the headlines, but the
> >commodity index made new 21 year lows on Thursday and Friday.
> >
> >We sure live in exciting times...I think in the morning: I'll
> >have a bowl of $4/box Wheaties, that have less than a pound
of
> >wheat in them, and then I'll talk to some local producers,
who
> >are getting paid less that 2 bucks, at the local elevator for
a
> >bushel (60 lbs.), and we can chat about how much Michael
Jordan
> >and Tiger Woods get for being on those boxes and then try to
> >understand why Kellogg's reported disappointing third quarter
> >earnings. I just peaked and the grains are up in Project
> >A...maybe Cargills buying, maybe Tiger and Michael are going
> >long this evening, maybe it's time to go to bed.
> >
> >Steve Karnish
> >CCT
> >
> >
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