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Steve,
I've been reading your postings on this mail list, and I find them to be
very interesting. I've got a few questions based on your recent comments.
In this posting you cite "consensus numbers." Could you tell me what types
of traders are represented in this consensus? Also, do you get these
numbers from the net? If so, could you provide an address? Do you have any
consensus numbers for wheat?
Larry Williams touts "commercial net buying" statistics as indicators of
futures market directions. Do you use this information, and what is your
opinion of it? Is "commercial net buying" available on the net?
You have noted quite correctly that wheat is in a bear market. However, the
price is so low that I have been reluctant to go with the trend. I wonder
how much lower the wheat price can go, and is there enough downside
potential there to justify the risk. What is your view?
Back on August 22 you stated that candlesticks are the most important
technical tool available. However, your comments in that message mentioned
that you also used a number of other technical indicators such as
stochastics, Bollinger bands, etc. Do you incorporate all or several of
these various indicators into a system, or do you examine them and draw
subjective conclusions?
Well, that's enough questions to keep you busy for a while. Thanks for
considering them.
Tom Strickland
At 09:22 PM 8/30/98 -0700, you wrote:
>List,
>
>Corn and beans came in with the year's lowest consensus numbers:
>Corn=25.0 & Beans=22.2. In fact, I scanned back through 1997
>and 1996 also and there's nothing that comes close to these
>numbers on the downside. This type of bearish sentiment
>inevitably sparks a rally. Anybody notice the dollar "tanking"
>on Friday? The $ index gave back every stinking penny it gained
>since June 19th. Boy, I just hate to talk these funkymentals,
>but our grain just got a little easier to buy after Friday's
>action in the dollar. When bullish consensus falls to these
>levels, the interpretation is that there is no one left to sell.
> The stock market is stealing all the headlines, but the
>commodity index made new 21 year lows on Thursday and Friday.
>
>We sure live in exciting times...I think in the morning: I'll
>have a bowl of $4/box Wheaties, that have less than a pound of
>wheat in them, and then I'll talk to some local producers, who
>are getting paid less that 2 bucks, at the local elevator for a
>bushel (60 lbs.), and we can chat about how much Michael Jordan
>and Tiger Woods get for being on those boxes and then try to
>understand why Kellogg's reported disappointing third quarter
>earnings. I just peaked and the grains are up in Project
>A...maybe Cargills buying, maybe Tiger and Michael are going
>long this evening, maybe it's time to go to bed.
>
>Steve Karnish
>CCT
>
>
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