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Harley,
The only thing I know about Yankton is that Lyle Alzado went to
school there. I have traded grain since 1975 and I live in the
"Palouse". My area is the largest yielding, per acre, wheat
country in the world. Many neighbors are harvesting 105 to 120
bushels an acre this year. At $2.50 a bushel, their bountiful
harvest are still not allowing them to break even on their
investments. Without discussing/arguing your "assumptions" on a
point to point basis, I will only take issue with you on one of
your statements:
> " But if you want to take advantage of the
> trading opportunities then you need to listen to
> the farmers who are trying to hedge their crops or
> livestock."
I've trading for hundreds of producers and well, they're really
good at producing a crop; but, they are the worst marketers I've
ever encountered. Listening to market and trading advice from a
family farmer, (I married into the fifth generation to work the
land I live on), is a quick trip to the poor house.
The ability to discern market direction is a tough job that
involves endless hours of analytical work (pencil and paper
pushing). As they say around here: "To even get a farmer to do
paperwork is like nailing butter to the wall." I use my
customers' advice as contrarian opinions. If my producers all
what to be long, there is no doubt, in my mind, that the market
will continue to slide.
I've talked to about 200 wheat farmers in the last year and have
asked each group I've spoken to if anyone, in the gathering,
took advantage of $7.50 wheat (April/May 1996) and sold a
percentage of their crop. I then ask if anyone sold wheat over
$6.00 (a lesser amount, but a price that brings enormous
profits). Guess how many of these farmers were bright enough to
sell above $6.00 .....absolutely zero. Maybe, the time window
was too small...after all, they only had six weeks to lock in
those prices. What does that tell you?
Monday morning, at 5:45 am, I'll start to get calls from my
producers. Every one of them thinks that the wheat market is
going up. I'll hear about the floods in China, "Uncle Billy"
buying wheat for the poor and a bunch of other "horseshit"
fundamentals. But, Harley, I've been short since Tuesday's
opening and a most of these producers have reluctantly allowed
me to put them in short positions because they also realize that
when it comes to market direction: they don't have a clue. When
you're always wrong, it's easy to blame Cargill, ADM, commodity
brokers, floor traders, and anyone else so that you can shift
the blame away from your own incompetence.
I don't need to travel to Yankton...I live 7 miles from
pavement, smack in the middle of a wheat producing area that's
every Dakotaoans "wet dream". I do agree with your statement:
"Anyway, enough said" and understand why you don't invest in
futures.
Steve Karnish
CCT
----------
> From: Harley Meyer <meyer@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: futures zero sum or not? Re: System development
> Date: Sunday, August 23, 1998 8:29 PM
>
> Steve,
> I don't invest in futures so I don't take it as a
> tip. I look at what I saw as an American tragedy -
> staring the family farmer. If you ever get to
> Yankton, SD. Let me know you can spend some time
> with him.
>
> I understand what you say as far as zero sum but
> in some markets that isn't true. For example I
> brought up to Darrell why don't you just deliver
> your cattle on your future contracts. He laughed,
> "ya right." The specs for live cattle delivery are
> such that they can't be delivered. The delivery
> weight is approximately 1150 lb.. Most cattle are
> much heavier than that when they go to market. He
> also said that the only place for delivery is
> Chicago. So it becomes more expensive for
> transportation.
>
> I might have the weights wrong but he did say if
> he could of made it work he would of.
>
>
> As far as a conspiracy it is a word. Now weather
> the cost of doing business ends up with the same
> results is a horse a piece and just another
> word(s). Darrell has had to step out of the main
> stream of raising livestock and do some things
> that others don't or won't do to be able to make a
> living.
>
> I don't thing Darrell calls it a conspiracy, he
> just knows that Cargill and IBP are ruthless in
> their business dealings. Now if you don't think
> that these big grain companies don't control the
> market that's ok with me. We all have our points
> of view. But if you want to take advantage of the
> trading opportunities then you need to listen to
> the farmers who are trying to hedge their crops or
> livestock.
>
> Anyway enough said.
>
> Harley
>
>
>
> Steve Karnish wrote:
> >
> > Harley,
> >
> > Beware Harley, I've received my most unreliable trading
> > information at reunions. This blanket indictment of Cargill
> > sounds like other common accusations: Soros controls the
> > currencies, Buffet controls the silver market (or was that
the
> > Hunts?), the Mafia controls NFL Football. I have twenty
wheat
> > producers as clients and I hear conspiracy theories on a
daily
> > basis. If the "funds" are selling 2,000 contracts of on
> > Monday... true, it will be hard for wheat to advance in
price
> > (but does mean that the funds control the markets?).
> >
> > This really hasn't a single thing to do with "zero sum".
"Zero
> > sum" is the term applied to the accounting of the futures
> > market. Harley makes a dollar, Steve (or someone) loses a
> > dollar. This is a huge difference when compared to stocks
and is
> > the reason that futures are a tougher game to extract
profits
> > from.
> > Why didn't your friend hedge his crop at that wildly
profitable
> > level ($9.00)? Cargill doesn't control the market...fear
and
> > greed controls the markets.
> >
> > Steve Karnish
> > CCT
> >
> >
> > ----------
> > > From: Harley Meyer <meyer@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: futures zero sum or not? Re: System development
> > > Date: Sunday, August 23, 1998 2:57 PM
> > >
> > > I went to visit a friend at our 20th class
> > > reunion. He used to be a big farmer. 1000 head of
> > > cattle and 300 hog fairowing (sp) operation. He is
> > > small now. He said that Cargill and IBP pretty
> > > much control the futures market. They control by
> > > controlling supply of the commodity and by taking
> > > positions in the market. He gave me several
> > > examples. Here is one of them.
> > >
> > > Soybeans were around $9 and were about to breakout
> > > to the upside. The farmers were holding back
> > > taking their grain to the elevators. The farmers
> > > where waiting for the breakout. After the breakout
> > > the plan was to lock in their prices with a hedge
> > > in the market and then take the grain to the
> > > elevators. Well Cargill floated a rumor that they
> > > bought 300 million bushels of soybeans from
> > > Brazil. The soybean market collapsed and the
> > > farmers had to take their soybeans to the
> > > elevators taking a lower price.
> > >
> > > He is pretty frustrated over the whole situation.
> > > The way he explained it to me. It is about the
> > > same way that the share croppers were treated
> > > years ago.
> > >
> > > A bit off topic but wanted to point out that the
> > > futures has some bias when you think of a zero sum
> > > game.
> > >
> > > Harley
> > >
> > > Steve Karnish wrote:
> > > >
> > > > John,
> > > >
> > > > Good systems that track commodities should be able to
cross
> > over
> > > > and do well in equities. The futures game is "zero sum"
(if
> > > > John Manasco "wins" a dollar...Steve Karnish "loses" a
> > dollar).
> > > > Most folks believe that this makes it a tougher game. I
> > thought
> > > > just for fun I'd post the exact same linear regression
> > > > oscillator systematic approach that I posted for lumber,
but
> > > > this time for a stock (DELL, one of Jim's current
> > favorites).
> > > > The approach is the same for lumber or DELL...but, the
> > variables
> > > > change to adapt to the rhythm. The chart represents the
> > first
> > > > six months of the year.
> > > >
> > > > Steve Karnish
> > > > CCT
> > > > ----------
> > > > > From: John Manasco <manasco@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > > Subject: Re:System development
> > > > > Date: Saturday, August 22, 1998 11:56 AM
> > > > >
> > > > > Steve Karnish
> > > > >
> > > > > Thanks for the reply. You're right about my exit
strategy.
> > > > This is
> > > > > something I'm working on to improve. I'd like to come
up
> > with
> > > > something
> > > > > that takes the decision out of my greedy little hands.
I'm
> > at
> > > > my worst
> > > > > when I try to outguess myself.
> > > > >
> > > > > I've never traded commodities, never even new what
they
> > were
> > > > until about
> > > > > five years ago. Someday I'll venture into that arena
but
> > for
> > > > now I'll
> > > > > stick to equities and options.
> > > > >
> > > > > Your forcast oscillator system is concise and to the
> > point. I
> > > > like
> > > > > systems that have a minimum of indicators much more
than
> > > > systems that
> > > > > use a myriad of indicators overlapping each other. Do
you
> > also
> > > > use other
> > > > > money management rules in case your system fails?
> > > > >
> > > > > Do you find some systems work better on futures that
> > equities?
> > > > I'm
> > > > > comming to believe that there is no one system that
will
> > work
> > > > on
> > > > > everything but I need to tailor my systems for
different
> > > > industry
> > > > > groups and different individual equities. This is
hard to
> > > > accomplish
> > > > > without curve fitting but I'm finding that stocks do
have
> > > > their
> > > > > individual personalities and respond better to some
> > indicators
> > > > than
> > > > > others.
> > > > >
> > > > > Do you use candlesticks exclusively? Could you say
> > something
> > > > about why
> > > > > you like them?
> > > > >
> > > > > Anyone else want to jump in please do so. I'd like to
hear
> > > > from new
> > > > > investors and users of Metastock. How are you going
about
> > > > deciding which
> > > > > indicators to study? Are there any trends developing
which
> > may
> > > > be
> > > > > helpful to more seasoned investors who also need help?
> > When I
> > > > first
> > > > > started using Metastock I looked at the usual RSI,
MACD,
> > > > Stochastics
> > > > > etc. Then everyone started exploring statistical based
> > system.
> > > > What's
> > > > > new now? Any using fibonacci studies? How about cycle
> > analysis
> > > > and fast
> > > > > fourier transforms? A Gann discussion group just
started.
> > I
> > > > hope they
> > > > > report back to the list on regular occasions on their
> > > > progress.
> > > > >
> > > > > Anyway it's a nice afternoon and I'm going outdoors to
> > enjoy
> > > > it.
> > > > >
> > > > > Good trading
> > > > >
> > > > > John Manasco
> > > >
> > > > --------------------------------------------------
> > > >
> > > > Name: DELL.gif
> > > > DELL.gif Type: GIF Image (image/gif)
> > > > Encoding: base64
> > > > Description: Dell (GIF Image)
> > > >
> > > > Name: DELL98.gif
> > > > DELL98.gif Type: GIF Image (image/gif)
> > > > Encoding: base64
> > > > Description: Dell98 (GIF Image)
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