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Steve,
I don't invest in futures so I don't take it as a
tip. I look at what I saw as an American tragedy -
staring the family farmer. If you ever get to
Yankton, SD. Let me know you can spend some time
with him.
I understand what you say as far as zero sum but
in some markets that isn't true. For example I
brought up to Darrell why don't you just deliver
your cattle on your future contracts. He laughed,
"ya right." The specs for live cattle delivery are
such that they can't be delivered. The delivery
weight is approximately 1150 lb.. Most cattle are
much heavier than that when they go to market. He
also said that the only place for delivery is
Chicago. So it becomes more expensive for
transportation.
I might have the weights wrong but he did say if
he could of made it work he would of.
As far as a conspiracy it is a word. Now weather
the cost of doing business ends up with the same
results is a horse a piece and just another
word(s). Darrell has had to step out of the main
stream of raising livestock and do some things
that others don't or won't do to be able to make a
living.
I don't thing Darrell calls it a conspiracy, he
just knows that Cargill and IBP are ruthless in
their business dealings. Now if you don't think
that these big grain companies don't control the
market that's ok with me. We all have our points
of view. But if you want to take advantage of the
trading opportunities then you need to listen to
the farmers who are trying to hedge their crops or
livestock.
Anyway enough said.
Harley
Steve Karnish wrote:
>
> Harley,
>
> Beware Harley, I've received my most unreliable trading
> information at reunions. This blanket indictment of Cargill
> sounds like other common accusations: Soros controls the
> currencies, Buffet controls the silver market (or was that the
> Hunts?), the Mafia controls NFL Football. I have twenty wheat
> producers as clients and I hear conspiracy theories on a daily
> basis. If the "funds" are selling 2,000 contracts of on
> Monday... true, it will be hard for wheat to advance in price
> (but does mean that the funds control the markets?).
>
> This really hasn't a single thing to do with "zero sum". "Zero
> sum" is the term applied to the accounting of the futures
> market. Harley makes a dollar, Steve (or someone) loses a
> dollar. This is a huge difference when compared to stocks and is
> the reason that futures are a tougher game to extract profits
> from.
> Why didn't your friend hedge his crop at that wildly profitable
> level ($9.00)? Cargill doesn't control the market...fear and
> greed controls the markets.
>
> Steve Karnish
> CCT
>
>
> ----------
> > From: Harley Meyer <meyer@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: futures zero sum or not? Re: System development
> > Date: Sunday, August 23, 1998 2:57 PM
> >
> > I went to visit a friend at our 20th class
> > reunion. He used to be a big farmer. 1000 head of
> > cattle and 300 hog fairowing (sp) operation. He is
> > small now. He said that Cargill and IBP pretty
> > much control the futures market. They control by
> > controlling supply of the commodity and by taking
> > positions in the market. He gave me several
> > examples. Here is one of them.
> >
> > Soybeans were around $9 and were about to breakout
> > to the upside. The farmers were holding back
> > taking their grain to the elevators. The farmers
> > where waiting for the breakout. After the breakout
> > the plan was to lock in their prices with a hedge
> > in the market and then take the grain to the
> > elevators. Well Cargill floated a rumor that they
> > bought 300 million bushels of soybeans from
> > Brazil. The soybean market collapsed and the
> > farmers had to take their soybeans to the
> > elevators taking a lower price.
> >
> > He is pretty frustrated over the whole situation.
> > The way he explained it to me. It is about the
> > same way that the share croppers were treated
> > years ago.
> >
> > A bit off topic but wanted to point out that the
> > futures has some bias when you think of a zero sum
> > game.
> >
> > Harley
> >
> > Steve Karnish wrote:
> > >
> > > John,
> > >
> > > Good systems that track commodities should be able to cross
> over
> > > and do well in equities. The futures game is "zero sum" (if
> > > John Manasco "wins" a dollar...Steve Karnish "loses" a
> dollar).
> > > Most folks believe that this makes it a tougher game. I
> thought
> > > just for fun I'd post the exact same linear regression
> > > oscillator systematic approach that I posted for lumber, but
> > > this time for a stock (DELL, one of Jim's current
> favorites).
> > > The approach is the same for lumber or DELL...but, the
> variables
> > > change to adapt to the rhythm. The chart represents the
> first
> > > six months of the year.
> > >
> > > Steve Karnish
> > > CCT
> > > ----------
> > > > From: John Manasco <manasco@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > Subject: Re:System development
> > > > Date: Saturday, August 22, 1998 11:56 AM
> > > >
> > > > Steve Karnish
> > > >
> > > > Thanks for the reply. You're right about my exit strategy.
> > > This is
> > > > something I'm working on to improve. I'd like to come up
> with
> > > something
> > > > that takes the decision out of my greedy little hands. I'm
> at
> > > my worst
> > > > when I try to outguess myself.
> > > >
> > > > I've never traded commodities, never even new what they
> were
> > > until about
> > > > five years ago. Someday I'll venture into that arena but
> for
> > > now I'll
> > > > stick to equities and options.
> > > >
> > > > Your forcast oscillator system is concise and to the
> point. I
> > > like
> > > > systems that have a minimum of indicators much more than
> > > systems that
> > > > use a myriad of indicators overlapping each other. Do you
> also
> > > use other
> > > > money management rules in case your system fails?
> > > >
> > > > Do you find some systems work better on futures that
> equities?
> > > I'm
> > > > comming to believe that there is no one system that will
> work
> > > on
> > > > everything but I need to tailor my systems for different
> > > industry
> > > > groups and different individual equities. This is hard to
> > > accomplish
> > > > without curve fitting but I'm finding that stocks do have
> > > their
> > > > individual personalities and respond better to some
> indicators
> > > than
> > > > others.
> > > >
> > > > Do you use candlesticks exclusively? Could you say
> something
> > > about why
> > > > you like them?
> > > >
> > > > Anyone else want to jump in please do so. I'd like to hear
> > > from new
> > > > investors and users of Metastock. How are you going about
> > > deciding which
> > > > indicators to study? Are there any trends developing which
> may
> > > be
> > > > helpful to more seasoned investors who also need help?
> When I
> > > first
> > > > started using Metastock I looked at the usual RSI, MACD,
> > > Stochastics
> > > > etc. Then everyone started exploring statistical based
> system.
> > > What's
> > > > new now? Any using fibonacci studies? How about cycle
> analysis
> > > and fast
> > > > fourier transforms? A Gann discussion group just started.
> I
> > > hope they
> > > > report back to the list on regular occasions on their
> > > progress.
> > > >
> > > > Anyway it's a nice afternoon and I'm going outdoors to
> enjoy
> > > it.
> > > >
> > > > Good trading
> > > >
> > > > John Manasco
> > >
> > > --------------------------------------------------
> > >
> > > Name: DELL.gif
> > > DELL.gif Type: GIF Image (image/gif)
> > > Encoding: base64
> > > Description: Dell (GIF Image)
> > >
> > > Name: DELL98.gif
> > > DELL98.gif Type: GIF Image (image/gif)
> > > Encoding: base64
> > > Description: Dell98 (GIF Image)
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