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I haven't had much luck with the built in volume indicators in Metastock in
most cases. Then after reading this discussion about volume, I checked out
this backtest. It actually would be OK to time the DJIA, with only 14 RT
trades in this time and no losing trades. But some of these are unecessary
quick "turnaround" trades and I have other timing that I think works better
with the sector rotations I time. I need to check this system out with
stock composite groups with volume and some stocks. Would make a good
indicator at least. 75% of TA is knowing it's there; this is there.
Also have one started with buying & selling pressure (this might be +ve &
-ve ?) that I haven't followed through with that looks promising also.
Mostly I've worked with price alone. I intend to try use price & volume
for timing sector funds in the future. Or when I get a round tuit.
Unlike some, I started with indexes and funds to learn TA. I only have
DJIA historical data with volume (no S&P volume). I intend next to work
with stock sector groups with volume. Stocks I leave for last.
OBV doesn't seem, at least at first glance, to do a lot of moving around.
But I'd guess that in order to work it would only have to change slightly
at the right time to be a good indicator. Difficult to see what it's doing
though.
I do notice that the newer indicators in MS 6.0 & 6.5 give a lot more
choices when you start to put something together. I started with MS 5.11
and have only recently gotten back into MS, after chasing down sector
rotations with Monocle 2.
Have temporarily put the W. Blau TSI type stuff on the shelf
(TSI,SMI,DTI,Ergodic, etc.) Fairly difficult to get into MS and results so
far are not that great.
At 06:35 PM 2/9/98 -0600, you wrote:
>This may work on a portfolio better than on a single security. OBV seems to
>work about as good or better than a number of other volume indicators that
>are in the Metastock library.
>
>There seems to be a big increase in volume after a big drop. there dows not
>seem to be a high correlation between volume and price. Maybe if we had
>easy access to volume per trade the correlation would be better.
>
>Have you looked at positive and negative volume? Several decades ago the
>developer of +ve & -ve volume determined that the market had changed and
that
>-ve volume was no longer working. However perhaps conditions have changed
>again so that this may now be a good indicator.
>
>Lionel Issen
>
>At 09:51 AM 2/9/98 -0500, RXR wrote:
>>I should know better, but here goes.
>>
>>I have a fairly simple system test based on the weekly DJIA from '83 thru
>>'96 that as far as I can tell is based solely on volume predicting price
>>direction. It does 2X B&H % gain over this time with no losing trades.
>>
>>Not sure you would want to use it to trade the DJIA, but it "proves" to me
>>at least that volune does predict price direction enough to trade the DJIA.
>>
>>I won't give out the formula since I haven't really had a chance to use it
>>in other areas. Wouldn't you know it.
>>
>>This isn't any worse than some people assuming they know more than they
>>might. Let's all keep an open mind . . . You can't learn anything new by
>>assuming you know it all already . . .
>>
>>Now be nice.
>>RXR
>>
>>
>>
>
>
RXR
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