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Re grey areas in our trading knowledge:
When someone is 'teaching', especially if it is a formal presentation (a book or seminar) we tend to mark their ideas, moreso than them, quite harshly, and rightly so. When I 'see' that their ideas don't addup or aren't consistent, in a certain area, I put up an alert flag and make a mental note to investigate this area further because they indicate a 'grey area' in the presenters knowledge which more often than not corresponds to a grey area in their field of expertise (grey areas == difficult questions to answer definitively).
There are a lot of grey areas in investing/trading and the major ones provide us with opportunities for stepped advances, if we can answer them.
I never accept that the hard trading questions don't have an answer.... in nearly every case I have investigated they do and quite a few must have answered them but perhaps they don't publish.
Does trading the edge erode the edge is one of the hard questions of trading but I am satisfied this forum answered the question, in this discussion, but not for everybody ... in some cases the answer was elusive, unpalatable or seemed irrelevant etc.
Re confidence:
My mini dictionary defines confidence as,"trust; certainty; belief in yourself; something told in confidence".
For me 'certainty' is the most apt definition for our use in trading.
Rather than shy away from tradings' grey areas, or whitewash our lack of certainty about the answers, we should embrace our ignorance and attack the question with gusto.
By observation, followed by postulating and testing, we can move forward.
In TA certainty comes from 100's, 1000's or even 10,000's of observations of persistent market behaviour e.g. opening volatility is one thing we can be certain about .... there are other market events that we can be certain about, or that we can be certain will occur with high probabilities, however, only a % of them can be exploited, via systems, but some of them will be there for 'my forever' == another decade or two (beyond that timeframe the certainty diminishes but why worry about trading things that don't concern my trading career?).
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